Is that necessarily 'unfavourable'?

Well, according to Cohen

"However, across Europe the predicted position of the PV between Iceland and Scandinavia will likely help anchor deep low geopotential heights just north of Europe. Counterclockwise flow around the low geopotential height center will help to maintain a mild westerly flow of air across Europe."

With regard to the SSW, my own feeling at this time is that it may be a little too early at the moment to properly judge whether or not this will be of any benefit to us later this month. From what I have read about these events in the past, it can often take something like 2-3 weeks for the events of changes in the stratosphere to fully filter down to the troposhere, at which point I think it is more likely to have an effect on weather patterns. Maybe a week to 10 days or more from now, we should have a better ideas as to whether or not the event about to take place will be of any help to us or not.

Well that puts more meat on the bines in terms of PV positioning - although, I say again, a big chunk of the PV sat just to our north isn't necessarily a bad thing, especially if it nudges slightly further east. Depending on how it's shaped/orientated, it can bring a notably cold airflow with plenty of instability to the majority of the UK,

'bout sums it up!

you know i have always wondered why we can't get the PV over the Scandinavian area more often- it seems to move far easier the other side of the globe and readily into Canada at times, but getting a good flow into the north of us seems to be bloody impossible at times. 

It's a simple point well made. Why can't it just shift a cm to the right on the charts.... But it doesn't and we see this year after year until the exception to the rule rocks up. As for the current SSW and a poss 4 week lead time... ummmm! Climatology shows the westerly flow breaks down as spring arrives. 

You and me both!

It seemed that a chunk had moved there in mid-Dec 2010...

...but I think it was Quantum debunked that idea recently.

J F F   Buried

Some amazing perts in the GEFS, nothing particularly cold, the continent is warm for the time of year. 

A possible North African plume of +12 uppers accompanies this SLP chart, note the pressure over Scandi is 1055mb...:

A mild easterly (except for the Gorms):

Mild zonal Sir?

Or wanna get high?

Because to the NW there is the deep cold over Greenland and Canada which gets flung into the Atlantic by the prevailing westerlies. Greenland/NE Canada is one the climatological "default" positions of the PV for this reason.

Would be interesting to see 850hPa temp averages stepping back across the Atlantic at the UK's latitude.

Time to let go of this winter there's no cold spell on the horizon and more chance of the tooth fairy visiting us all late at night.

Nah, ECM brings the -5 850 line back down to Scotland by t+240!!

It's interesting how some of the more stellar charts have a lack of cold uppers attached to them and have done for some days

The latest ARPEGE totals for the weekend. Nearly the whole of SW England sees at least 30 mm with 40 mm or so in a numbe rof places.

The pivot point for tomorrow's rain has adjusted west since yesterday's runs, hence the generally higher totals for Cornwall and Wales, with Saturday alone producing 50 mm or so over the areas of higher terrain, with an unusually strong effect over Dartmoor that locals should bear in mind - the run-off down narrow gorges and the like could be exceptional.

In fact there must be the chance of convection lining up on a collision course with some of the high terrain to produce a flash flood somewhere. A nasty proposition indeed and I sincerely hope that is avoided.

The GFS high-res paints a very similar picture, indeed the agreement is so strong that if events turn out to be more than a hundred miles or so east or west of their projections, it will be a bit of a let down in terms of forecasting reliability.

Looking at the latest rainfall radar, I can see that the occluding system is pretty much where the models have it for 20:00, but with the addition of a narrow squall line just behind it, and the rain rates in the western Channel considerably higher than predicted. Hopefully that won't propagate along the frontal system to bring heavier rain than expected across CS England tonight - I don't think the local waterways could handle much more than 30 mm this weekend.

168 actually  (and 114hrs on the GFS 12z). Overall it looks on the cool side of average up here albeit generally -  cool and damp rather than cold and wintry.

LP's firing in one after the other across Southern UK , cool and unsettled

Look at this brutal cold in NE N. America getting sucked out into the Atlantic. This is why we can't have nice things.

Here lots of rain over next few days, over 100m in places. APERGE:

Amazing how whenever I've looked at these NAEFS 2m temp anomalies it's been a sea of red over Europe. They seem to have had an even milder winter than us. At least we aren't alone?

I think it also shows that despite many of us having the weather as a hobby or an interest, with many of us wishing for winter extremes, even the weather experts are not much better than us in forecasting and long range forecasting is almost pointless, as it is updated daily and only the 1-3 day range of that forecast serves any value to everyday people.  The much predicted cold Feb has disappointed many of us, but highlights just how poor LRF really is.  With just 2 frosts this winter the one real positive is we must all have saved on our energy bills, for my heating is on for 2 hours in the morning and 4 at night and I have never left it on for such a short time in any winter before. ...best look outside to see what the weathers doing, but one final thought are the resources put into LRF (say over 10 day so) a complete waste of time and money? 

Another week of a relentless succession of depressions from the west.  The cold February (that never was) is lost.

Another accumulated rainfall image from the 0z GFS that paints a telling picture: