THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A mild SW flow across the UK will strengthen ahead of a cold front moving SE across the UK today and tonight. Tomorrow a vigorous Low pressure area moves North and NE across the UK with it's troughs delivering periods of rain, gales then showers.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is around 5000ft across the UK before falling somewhat across Northern areas later to around 3000-4000ft. This will be sufficient to give rise to wintry showers across the mountains of Scotland tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mostly unsettled and very windy with rain or squally showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is strengthening across the Atlantic and then across Southern England and France through the following week. While maintaining much of it's strength it does move back slowly North through the second week to lie across the UK again by the end of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a potentially stormy spell of weather likely across the UK early next week as the weekend unsettled and rainy weather continues well into next week. Later in the week winds may decrease somewhat while the weather remains unsettled and often wet with sunshine and showers in between with some wintry showers possible over the hills. Then in just over a weeks time a dry interlude of a day or so looks possible before changeable weather returns for all with rain and wind at times, the worst of which looks likely across the North and West this time round.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to it's Operational companion though the drier interlude in the middle of the period looks rather colder and longer lasting on this run with some wintry showers possible near coasts for a time before the milder Atlantic Westerlies return later with rain at times, chiefly over the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show a roughly 60/40 split in favour of mild and sometimes wet weather maintained across the UK under Low pressure to the North and NW and High to the SW. The remaining 40 show High pressure close to the SE or East with drier and cooler weather across the UK as a result.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows wet and windy weather to start next week with gales and heavy showers for all before a quieter period midweek is the forerunner to more wind and rain towards the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show deep Low pressure areas affecting the UK over the coming 5 days centred across the UK with troughs affecting all areas with attendant heavy rain and gales and periods of colder weather with squally thundery showers, wintry on hills and possibly thundery near the coasts.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today looks probably the most disturbed of the set this morning with incessant and very deep Low pressure over or near the UK across the whole 10 day period with gales and heavy rain on numerous occasions mixed in with squally, heavy and thundery showers with the risk of snow at times on the hills as colder air occasionally tucks in.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today continues the unsettled and windy theme shown by all output this morning. Low pressure slowly migrates East to end next week out in the North Sea but maintaining a strong grip on the weather across the UK with progressively chillier conditions later as winds turn more towards the NW with some of the precipitation falling as snow on this hills with time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today shows a similar entrenched spell of volatile and windy weather across the UK over the next week with gales or severe gales at times. Spells of heavy rain will alternate with sunshine and squally showers. Later in the run some shift North of the overall pattern could bring slightly drier conditions at times to the South but conditions overall look like remaining quite changeable and often wet.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today shows an unsettled pattern still across the UK in 10 days with the Jet stream to the South of the UK and Low pressure up to the NW as well as across the UK with Atlantic sourced winds and rain at times still the order of the weather for all by that time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to just differ within variations of a theme of continuing wet and windy conditions across the UK for much of the coming two weeks.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS and UKMO at 99.5 pts each.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.8 pts to UKMO at 89.3 pts and GFS at 88.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 68.7 pts to 65.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.9 pts to 48.7 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  Not much change shown within the models today than that shown repetitively over recent days. The main message is 'batten down the hatches' as it looks like we are in for a spell of wet and at times very windy weather with gales and severe gales causing occasional disruption along with likely local flooding from heavy rain. The West looks like clocking up the highest rainfall totals over the next week whereas the strongest winds look like being at their strongest near Western and Southern coasts. Temperatures on the other hand should not present too many problems as they should remain close to average overall although occasional colder incursions behind cold fronts could bring some wintriness in the showers especially over the hills but perhaps more extensively for a time later next week. However, widespread cold related winter hazards do not look like being the main focus for attention over the coming week or so with the rain and wind being by far the most newsworthy features I feel and while there is some hints that after the first week somewhat quieter and maybe chillier conditions might result for a while with the Jet Stream remaining strong and poorly orientated changeable and windy conditions from off the Atlantic remains the most likely position we find ourselves in two weeks from now with perhaps a shift of emphasis of wind and rain more towards the North and West with longer drier interludes across the South and East by then although at this range this is not a definite. There will be no report from me tomorrow but I will be back on Sunday morning with another update.      

Next Update Sunday February 7th 2016 from 09:00

How do you know that, this isn't argumentative just curious how you know? 

Nothing too exciting cold wise (down South anyway) for the foreseeable but there's a bit of windy stuff to blow the cobwebs away:-

Not exceptional but enough to cause a few issues I'd imagine.

The GFS ens support the generally average zonal flow, with some warmer and some cooler days as you'd expect although there is just a hint of some colder weather in there with a small minority of colder runs showing:-

All seems very average to me, which is probably welcome news to the Scottish ski industry, providing any warmer incursions are limited that far North

Oh and to SCs comment above about January - I take it by turned out you mean the 7 day spell with a CET of 1.5C? I.E Notably colder than average, with snow for some

The GEFS on the 06z are starting to hint at a lot more northern blocking in the latter stages - lets see if this developes.

Martin

Now it starts. (In the Model output at least).

Except that it is likely to be the warmest ever!

strange. From what I have read this particular SSW started back third week of January and it is ( not possibly) going to introduce record warmth iinto the strat. The high point being around 10 days from now. It's then a little bit of a waiting game, hoping that the PV at some time in the following 4 to 6 weeks can put itself in a more favourable position. A split in the PV would be nice. 

Hi Marcus

My interpretation of the potential effects (at 500mb) of a borderline reversal of 10mb flow due to the current warming is the PV being displaced further south with a susequently south shifted jet in the Atlantic - hence the 'unfavourable' tag.

it is my perception that the GFS 0.25deg model is pretty good in depth and for sequencing warming and its effects, so if this event is going to have an effect, we'll start to see it being modelled pretty soon.

As far as I'm aware the warmth comes from the west hits the cold coming from the east (in the strat) at which point it can't go any further so it forces the cold air down into the Trop. The stronger the warming the greater the displacement. Then it usually has an effect of cooling our neck of the woods however at this current moment the PV is not thought to be in the best place for north Western Europe to benefit fully from its effect.  But it don't end there, from its peak around 10 days from now it has the potential to effect us for around 4 to 6 weeks.  Someone somewhere will benefit from all that displaced cold.