It will certainly be colder - the question is whether the uppers will be cold enough to support snow. That is undecided yet as the boundary keeps moving north and south.

Just briefly and sorry to go OT....

Someone em'd me earlier to express their disappointment that I only pop up in the MO thread these days to post mild charts. Unfortunately either via design or accident the em address you left wasn't valid. If you want a reply from me (don't worry I'm always polite ) please PM me.

PS: GFS12z is running on time but has missing RAOB data today. 

So its your fault we're having a mildish winter then!! 

The vortex looks rather strong and organised on ECM ens mean, you'd expect it to weaken a bit by now. Day 10:

RAO B data? Anything to do with Nathan of the Express?

Royal Antediluvian Order of Buffaloes

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=72&carte=2000

Is it my imagination or are  LP's a bit further south both on GFS ,METO and latest faxes?

UKMO 72hour chart with front overlay and 850hpa -5C approx isotherm, a very complicated picture. Snow in the south and north?

Nice little upgrade tonight from te ecm. Snow for many!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.html

Fair comment

Not guaranteed I'm afraid with a very transient snow risk over the extreme South before rapidly rising pressure whisks the system away quickly SE. Good be good for the Midlands and parts of Wales for a time though.

Less marginal on Monday snow showers down the east coast.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.html

What do we have to do to get High pressure to hold over Scandinavia this Winter? Tonight's ECM highlights the problem we have had all Winter in that the Jet Stream continues to be strong across the Atlantic pile driving against any resistance over Scandinavia with ease and flattening the pattern to a standard Westerly flow again. The below charts highlight the problem we have had all Winter well.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html

What a nice chart to greet me home from my hospital discharge

Mods now downgrading the potential spell for snow:

Yes similar to GFS . Hopefully ecm and ukmo are playing catch up again.

Have you any evidence to support that claim? And by that I don't mean a random chart from the 7 to 10 day period which is and was always beyond the range of the forecast cold snap.

Is that chart a downgrade? I have seen no forecast or consistent evidence suggesting significant snow across the UK (although it could of course happen based on tonight's output)

fair comment Michael but would not be offset somewhat due to solar convective heating mid feb onwards

if its cold enough potential for heavy snow showers running south 

It could well be. Perhaps one of these situations where it could go either way and it might be a case of looking out the window rather than at the models when the time comes. 

Nope nav the the trendy run

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=0&carte=1

Thats absolutley nothing like the charts on the Beeb, I wouldn't worry too much

not far away from gfs on the right but yes sexy from the japs

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html