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David M Porter
21 February 2016 22:11:33


J Hammond " the cold theme to last some time, a brisk cold Easterly wind"


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


This is very likely now the late season change to cold that was being spoken about by some as far back as before Christmas. I think Brian at one stage mentioned the possibility of a cold snap/spell around the time that in meteorogical terms, winter gives way to spring; a "backloaded" winter as he describes it.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 February 2016 09:03:48


J Hammond " the cold theme to last some time, a brisk cold Easterly wind"


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


..."because of developments elsewhere in the atmosphere" .. So what signal is he looking at?


 


But looking at this morning's MetO forecast, it matches what he said last night with the low pressure diving down to S. France, giving us cold (but not really cold), cloudy and dry ... boring


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
nsrobins
22 February 2016 09:35:14
Those of us taking synoptic flow at face value, i.e a strong ENE, and thinking 'heavy convective snow showers' might be dissapointed. The surface source is not that cold, 850s wrong side of marginal and the SSTs a degree or so above normal. It might change by the weekend, but 'cold feel and dry' would be a fair outlook IMO.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
nsrobins
22 February 2016 09:35:57
Those of us taking synoptic flow at face value, i.e a strong ENE, and thinking 'heavy convective snow showers' might be dissapointed. The surface source is not that cold, 850s wrong side of marginal and the SSTs a degree or so above normal. It might change by the weekend, but 'cold feel and dry' would be a fair outlook IMO.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
nsrobins
22 February 2016 09:36:40
Those of us taking synoptic flow at face value, i.e a strong ENE, and thinking 'heavy convective snow showers' might be dissapointed. The surface source is not that cold, 850s wrong side of marginal and the SSTs a degree or so above normal. It might change by the weekend, but 'cold feel and dry' would be a fair outlook IMO.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
idj20
22 February 2016 09:44:23

Those of us taking synoptic flow at face value, i.e a strong ENE, and thinking 'heavy convective snow showers' might be dissapointed. The surface source is not that cold, 850s wrong side of marginal and the SSTs a degree or so above normal. It might change by the weekend, but 'cold feel and dry' would be a fair outlook IMO.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Looks like the tutu & catwoman suit challenge won't be taking place after all. But, indeed, "bitterly cold but dry" looks like being the form horse for this weekend. Can't see any ice days but a maximum of 5 C will feel very keen under a fresh easterly wind.


Folkestone Harbour. 
Gavin D
22 February 2016 11:16:37
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

Monday 22 February—Sunday 6 March
Cold week. Main uncertainties early and late.

The clearance of a cold front, producing a band of cloud and rain in southern England, will be the first uncertainty. Recent model runs have been slowing this down and the sun may not return to southern England until Tuesday. By then, cold air will be across the whole county with a northerly breeze bringing sunshine and wintry showers as well as frost and ice. Northern Scotland will be bearing the brunt of the snow showers.

The rest of the week remains cold, but pleasant in the sunshine. Nights will be frosty with icy patches. Coastal areas exposed to the northerly breeze will catch most of the wintry showers.

Uncertainty then arises during Friday and Saturday. A front arriving from the Atlantic could engage the cold air and a low pressure centre develop in the southwest. If this forms close enough there could be a spell of significant snow to the southwest. At the moment this is low probability (15%) and it looks more likely that we maintain the status quo...cold and mostly dry.

Computer models then agree that the low centre will move away to the south to keep a cold and frosty weekend with some sunshine and a few wintry showers.

Monday 7 March—Sunday 13 March
Staying cold

With a blocking high near or to the west of the UK, the wind flow is expected to range from an easterly to a northwesterly...all cold directions. Any fronts moving from the Atlantic stalling or weakening.

So frost and ice will continue to be a hazard together with the potential for hail, sleet or snow showers. Many areas though will continue to be dry with good spells of sunshine.

Monday 14 March—Sunday 27 March
A rarity...a month with below average temperatures

All the pieces are falling into place for the most prolonged period of cold weather for some time. this is not out of the ordinary but very different from the winter by now just gone.

Next week

Will any piece of the puzzle be lost and how long will the cold hang on?
Gavin D
22 February 2016 12:07:52
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Saturday 27 Feb 2016 to Monday 7 Mar 2016:

Cold but bright or sunny conditions should persist for many on Saturday, with some wintry showers, particularly in the northeast, though there is a risk that strong winds and outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow may develop in the south and southwest for a time. The remainder of the weekend and early next week then looks to remain cold with bright or sunny intervals but also some wintry showers, these most prevalent in the east. Through the first week in March it will probably become more unsettled generally, but remaining cold with a risk of rain, sleet and snow at times in most parts. Although less cold at times in the south, temperatures will generally be below normal with widespread overnight frosts, these locally severe in the north.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 8 Mar 2016 to Tuesday 22 Mar 2016:

On the whole, cold and changeable conditions look to dominate through the period. Spells of wet and windy weather are likely as frontal systems push in from the Atlantic, but there should also be periods of more settled, crisp and bright conditions in-between. There will be some sleet or snow at times, either from showers in the colder outbreaks or due to frontal systems running into cold air. Temperatures will generally be below average, with overnight frosts fairly common.
Gavin D
23 February 2016 11:42:20
Remaining cold as we head into March with some wintry showers mostly in the east if we pick up a NE'ly wind

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35636442 
Gavin D
23 February 2016 12:29:12
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Sunday 28 Feb 2016 to Tuesday 8 Mar 2016:

Cold in a northeasterly wind to start the period with bright or sunny intervals but also some wintry showers. These most prevalent in the east and far north, although perhaps becoming confined to the southeast by Monday. From late Monday and through the remainder of the week it will probably turn gradually more unsettled. Bands of rain and hill snow are likely to move southeastwards across the country to affect most parts, with these accompanied by strong winds or gales at times. There will also be clear, showery interludes. Although a little less cold at times under cloud and rain, temperatures will generally be below normal with widespread overnight frosts, these locally severe in the north.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 9 Mar 2016 to Wednesday 23 Mar 2016:

On the whole, cold and changeable conditions look to dominate through the period. Spells of wet and windy weather are likely as frontal systems push in from the Atlantic, but there should also be periods of more settled, crisp and bright conditions between. There will be some sleet or snow at times, either from showers in the colder spells or due to frontal systems running into cold air. Temperatures will generally be below average, with overnight frosts fairly common.
phlippy67
23 February 2016 23:25:49
Just seen the latest f/cast from Mr Deakin...what a load of tosh, y/day f/casting strong NEly airflow from Saturday onwards with snow down the east coast...ie imby...now it's the usual NWly flow returning after a couple of chilly days...great...!
Gavin D
24 February 2016 12:04:49
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Monday 29 Feb 2016 to Wednesday 9 Mar 2016:

Cold but largely sunny across much of the country on Monday, with the chance of one or two wintry showers across eastern parts. Later on Monday and through Tuesday it will turn more unsettled from the northwest as outbreaks of rain, preceded by snow, move southeastwards across the country. Thereafter it is likely to remain unsettled with further bands of rain and hill snow likely to move southeastwards across the country to affect most parts, with these accompanied by strong winds or gales at times. There will also be clear, showery interludes. Although a little less cold at times under cloud and rain, temperatures will generally be slightly below normal with occasional overnight frosts, these locally severe in the north.

UK Outlook for Thursday 10 Mar 2016 to Thursday 24 Mar 2016:

On the whole, cold and changeable conditions look to dominate through the period. Spells of wet and windy weather are likely as frontal systems push in from the Atlantic, but there should also be periods of more settled, crisp and bright conditions between. There will be some sleet or snow at times, either from showers in the colder spells or due to frontal systems running into cold air. Temperatures will generally be below average, with overnight frosts fairly common.
Gavin D
24 February 2016 21:43:08
Week ahead forecast

Different feel
Winds from the north west
Wettest in the north
Average temperatures

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35656389 
Essan
24 February 2016 21:45:27

Week ahead forecast

Different feel
Winds from the north west
Wettest in the north
Average temperatures

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35656389




Turning cold then


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Gavin D
25 February 2016 11:51:59
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Mar 2016 to Thursday 10 Mar 2016:

March is expected to start off wet and windy with strong to gale force winds and locally heavy rain spreading across all areas during Tuesday, and possibly starting off as snow on the high ground in the north. By the end of the day clearer, colder weather with wintry showers should have followed into northwestern areas, with these showery conditions spreading to all parts during Wednesday. Thereafter conditions are likely to be generally unsettled with further periods of wind and rain pushing in from the northwest and spells of colder, brighter, showery weather expected in between, with snow likely at times on higher ground. Although a little milder at times under cloud and rain, temperatures will be generally slightly below normal, with overnight frosts likely, occasionally severe in the north.

UK Outlook for Friday 11 Mar 2016 to Friday 25 Mar 2016:

On the whole, rather cold and changeable conditions look likely to dominate through the middle part of March with the airflow coming from a northwesterly direction for much of the time. Spells of wet and windy weather are likely as frontal systems push in from the Atlantic, but there should also be periods of more settled, crisp and bright conditions in between. There will be some local sleet or snow at times, either from showers in the colder spells or due to frontal systems running into cold air, and as usual the snow risk will be highest in northern areas. Temperatures will be generally rather below average for March, with overnight frosts expected on many nights.
Gavin D
25 February 2016 21:17:15
Cold snaps and more unsettled next week

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35665231 
doctormog
25 February 2016 21:39:12
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Saturday 30 Jan 2016 to Monday 8 Feb 2016:

On Saturday 30th there is likely to be an area of rain for a time across southern areas with brighter, colder, showery weather following across northern and central parts. These showers will be wintry at times, especially across Scotland. Then the latest indications are that another frontal system will arrive from the west at some point during Sunday, bringing further rain and a return to milder conditions. Thereafter it looks likely to remain changeable and often unsettled with various depressions running in from the Atlantic, bringing further bands of rain interspersed by colder, showery conditions. Most areas will often be windy and gales are likely at times. Overall the temperature should be near or above average, though brief overnight frost and fog is still possible between frontal systems.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 9 Feb 2016 to Tuesday 23 Feb 2016:

In general the first half of February looks likely to remain changeable with unsettled, milder spells interspersed with colder, showery interludes. The windiest and most unsettled weather is likely to occur in the north and northwest while the south and southeast should see somewhat drier conditions overall, though even here some rain and strong winds are likely at times. Despite relatively mild conditions prevailing some overnight frost and fog is quite probable in any quieter intervals. As we move into the second half of February there are signs that pressure may build in the mid Atlantic bringing a more north to northwesterly airflow to the British Isles, thus increasing the risk of colder conditions developing.


For reference this was the Met Office outlook exactly one month ago.


Gavin D
26 February 2016 12:05:20
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Mar 2016 to Friday 11 Mar 2016:

On Wednesday cloudy skies and outbreaks of rain will affect southern and eastern England at first. However clearer, colder weather with sunny intervals and scattered heavy, wintry showers already affecting the north and west will spread to all remaining areas during the day. Then Wednesday night is likely to become cold and mainly dry with a frost. Thereafter the latest indications are that conditions will be generally unsettled with further periods of rain and strong winds pushing in from the northwest and spells of colder, brighter, showery weather expected in between, with snow likely at times on higher ground. Although a little milder at times under cloud and rain, temperatures will be generally below normal, with overnight frosts likely on many nights.

UK Outlook for Saturday 12 Mar 2016 to Saturday 26 Mar 2016:

On the whole, rather cold and changeable conditions look likely to dominate through the middle and latter part of March, with the airflow coming from a northerly quarter for much of the time. Spells of wet and windy weather are likely as frontal systems push in from the Atlantic, but there should also be periods of more settled, crisp and bright conditions in between. There will be some local sleet or snow at times, either from showers in the colder spells or due to frontal systems running into cold air, and as usual the snow risk will be highest in northern areas. The temperature is expected to average out to be colder than normal for March, with overnight frosts expected on many nights, especially at first.
Gavin D
27 February 2016 14:40:04
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Thursday 3 Mar 2016 to Saturday 12 Mar 2016:

It will be a dry and settled start for most on Thursday, before rain and strengthening winds, spreads in from the west. This rain, with brief hill snow, will probably affect all parts during the day, before clearing later to bring blustery showers, mainly across the north-west. Thereafter the latest indications are that conditions will be changeable with further periods of rain and strong winds pushing in from the north-west. Spells of colder, brighter, showery weather expected in-between with perhaps more settle conditions for a time. Snow likely at times on higher ground. Temperatures are expected to generally be around or below average, although lifting a little above average as frontal systems arrive from the west. These below average temperatures will allow overnight frosts on many occasions.

UK Outlook for Sunday 13 Mar 2016 to Sunday 27 Mar 2016:

On the whole, rather cold and changeable conditions look likely to dominate through the middle and latter part of March, with the airflow coming from a northerly quarter for much of the time. Spells of wet and windy weather are likely as frontal systems push in from the Atlantic, but there should also be periods of more settled, crisp and bright conditions in between. There will be some local sleet or snow at times, either from showers in the colder spells or due to frontal systems running into cold air, and as usual the snow risk will be highest in northern areas. The temperature is expected to average out to be colder than normal for March, with overnight frosts expected on many nights, especially at first.
Gavin D
28 February 2016 12:52:57
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Friday 4 Mar 2016 to Sunday 13 Mar 2016:

Cold with blustery, often wintry showers on Friday and brisk northeasterly winds. Sunshine and showers will continue for most over the weekend, with these heavy and wintry in places, particularly in the east where cold, breezy winds are likely. Western areas may see more in the way of drier weather. There is a chance of a period of more persistent wet weather into the following week with strong winds and hill snow. Thereafter, generally changable and cold conditions are expected to continue, with bands of rain and hill snow interspersed with crisp, bright spells. There may be a spell of more settled weather for a time, most likely in the northwest through the latter part of the week.

UK Outlook for Monday 14 Mar 2016 to Monday 28 Mar 2016:

On the whole, rather cold and changeable conditions look likely to dominate through the middle and latter part of March. Spells of wet and windy weather are likely as frontal systems push in from the Atlantic, but there should also be periods of more settled, crisp and bright conditions in between. There will be some local sleet or snow at times, either from showers in the colder spells or due to frontal systems running into cold air, and as usual the snow risk will be highest in northern areas. The temperature is expected to average out to be colder than normal for March, with overnight frosts expected on many nights, especially at first.
Gavin D
28 February 2016 15:43:49
Week ahead forecast

Frosty start
Wet and windy spell
Turning colder again

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35682323 
Gavin D
29 February 2016 10:46:47
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

Monday 29 February—Sunday 13 March
Change in the month brings change of weather

The quiet cold and settled weather over England and Wales at the start of this week will be quickly pushed out of the way by a series of fronts which will bring wet and windy weather. The rain and strengthening southwesterly winds will affect the northern half of the UK on Monday, extending southwards to all parts on Monday night and on Tuesday. As well as the rain, a brief milder spell of weather, temperatures reaching double figures for the only time this week. Then a change to much colder conditions on Wednesday with strong northwesterly winds and frequent blustery showers, turning increasingly wintry in the north and snow over the high ground further south. It will become drier, brighter and less windy for a time on Thursday, then a further spell of wet weather is expected on Friday with drier conditions following over the weekend with northerly winds. These winds bringing much colder air southwards with a return to frosts at nights and wintry showers, again mainly in the north.

Monday 7 March—Sunday 20 March
It may be the meteorological spring but.......

We are not finished with wintry weather just yet. Winds for much of the week will come to us from a northwesterly direction bring cold air down from Iceland across the British Isles with even some Arctic air at times as winds switch round to a north or northeasterly direction. There will be some settled weather and frosts at nights. However Atlantic weather systems are expected to push from the west bringing strong winds with outbreaks of rain, falling as snow on high ground of the north. There will be a brief milder interlude during the week in the south. Then later in the week another area of high pressure will build in from the Atlantic with a return to drier, settled weather but also cold and frosty at nights.

Monday 14 March—Sunday 3 April
Not much spring-like weather

As we head into the second half of March, it looks as though temperatures will stay on the cold side with a changeable weather pattern becoming established. We will see Atlantic weather systems crossing the country at times bringing spells of wet and windy weather. The heaviest rainfall will be over western areas from the west of Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and southwest England. These wetter, less cold spells will be interspersed by cold, showery interludes with strong northwesterly winds and the showers turning wintry, especially in the north. There will also be brief quieter periods as transient ridges of high pressure cross the country bringing drier, brighter conditions by day but sharp frosts at nights

Next week

The weather saying goes - in like a lion, out like a lamb, referring to March, the transition month between the end of winter at the beginning and hopefully something quieter and spring-like towards the end. It does look as though March this year will enter with a bit of a roar. How will it end? There will be some clues here next week.
Gavin D
29 February 2016 11:33:02
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Saturday 5 Mar 2016 to Monday 14 Mar 2016:

It is expected to remain cold with a mixture of sunshine and showers for most over the weekend, these heavy and wintry in places, particularly in the east where are strong, cold breeze is likely. There is a chance of some more persistent rain and hill snow moving across southwestern parts for a time. As we move into the following week there will be a gradual trend towards drier and more settled conditions as pressure builds from the west, however overnight frosts will become more widespread. Later in the period more unsettled conditions will start to arrive from the northwest, bringing a return to wet and windy weather here, perhaps preceded by some hill snow.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 15 Mar 2016 to Tuesday 29 Mar 2016:

Settled conditions may prevail at first, however a quick return to more changeable weather seems likely during the middle part of the month. Spells of wet and windy weather are likely as frontal systems push in from the Atlantic, but there should also be periods of more settled, crisp and bright conditions in between. There will be some local sleet or snow at times, either from showers in the colder spells or due to frontal systems running into cold air, and as usual the snow risk will be highest in northern areas. The temperature is expected to average out to be colder than normal for March, with overnight frosts expected on many nights, especially at first.
Snow Hoper
29 February 2016 20:26:43

Local lookeast forecaster made reference to the SSW and the newspaper headlines recently about the white easter forecasts. 


 


 


 


 


 


http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast-video/21416744


Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.

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