http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook Monday 28 March—Sunday 3 April
Settling down.
Storm Katie brought a swathe of severe gales across southeastern parts of England overnight into Monday morning, and some very wet conditions across many other parts of England and Wales. At time of writing, the remnants of this storm are expected to clear through East Anglia and out into the North Sea by mid-afternoon. This means that for most, Bank Holiday Monday is expected to be a fine day with some good spells of sunshine, although there will always be a risk of some heavy showers, particularly across the far southwest and the far northwest of the UK. Winds may also remain fairly strong for a time across the southern coasts of England.
Tuesday will begin on a chilly note with a patchy frost for rural areas, but thereafter expect another day of sunshine and a scattering of heavy showers that could develop just about anywhere. Although temperatures won't be particularly high by the afternoon, any sunny spells will start to feel quite pleasant if shelter is sought from the breeze, which might still be fairly brisk. Wednesday is expected to be similar to Tuesday, but with winds slowly easing, and showers becoming less intense and less frequent. By Thursday a ridge of high pressure will start to topple in from the west resulting in a fine and dry day for many, although the odd shower can't be ruled out.
Friday will be largely fine and dry again for the majority of the UK, with some pleasant, if not particularly warm spells of sunshine. The exception will be across Northern Ireland and western Scotland where rain will threaten from the northwest.
Into the weekend, it looks like the rain band already across western areas of the UK will slowly and erratically try to move east, but pressure looks like it will start to build again to the east of the UK, resulting in the possibility of drier conditions persisting in the east, with some further patchy rain across western districts.
Monday 4 April—Sunday 10 April
Will a blocking high develop again?
As seen through the middle of March, the presence of a strong anticyclone in the vicinity of the UK can have the effect of blocking Atlantic weather systems from crossing the UK, resulting in some lengthy spells of dry weather. Although there is a reasonable degree of uncertainty in the forecast for this period, at this stage it looks likely that pressure will begin to rise across areas to the east and north of the UK. In this scenario, the best of any dry weather is most likely to found across northern and eastern areas of the UK, with the greatest threat of any wet weather likely confined to the far west and south. Temperatures are, on the whole, expected to be around average. That said, some warmer conditions could develop across northwestern areas in the spring sunshine. Overnight frosts are still likely on nights where skies are clear.
So any typical April showers might well only affect western parts with any great frequency.
Monday 11 April—Sunday 24 April
Any change on the horizon?
Confidence in all detailed aspects of the longer range forecast always diminishes to a certain degree, and this week's endeavour proves no different to the norm. That said, the computer models and tools that we use to aid our forecast suggest that pressure may well remain relatively high close to northern and eastern parts of the UK through much of April. This set up lends to the idea that through the period, weather conditions may well stay dry across northern areas of the country, with rain and showers perhaps most probable further south. Temperatures are anticipated to be around the norm for the time of year, but there will be the chance of some slightly warmer interludes.
Next week
Moving into early May, are there any signs that the increasingly strong spring sunshine will break through to give us some warmer spells? Find out next week!