GEFS trending colder again. Cumulative snow row = 27.

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Looks like the beeb/Meto not going with their own model sadly.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35609462

 

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Lol Andy, yes Steve is often over enthusiastic with his easterlies, but now we are do seem to be back to the days of the worst case scenario verifying, so the GFS looks more likely and the FAX charts will probably support this later 

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I thought the BBC weather for the week ahead was live on 21:55 every night not earlier? Or is it just released earlier online?

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Their own model only goes out to next Tuesday and the output for that period ties in very well with that forecast? 

The very end part talking about late next week does not cover a period available to us on the UKMO output.

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Am I being dumb or am I missing this cold shot of air beginning of next week? Temperatures in the south look average or above throughtout the whole of next week!??

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Yes, as I pointed out earlier you are missing it. As is frequently the case the far SW will miss out of cold air from most directions. This cooler period is no exception. 

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sorry but I agree with tally here... Away from Scotland & north Pennines all looks about average there 

Note that I did not say that it would be cold in the south just that the SW nearly always miss out. As for the outlook across the models there is potential for cooler conditions for most...

...but not if you look at the GFS operational runs in isolation. (Both the ECM and UKMO are much cooler - nothing notable or extremely wintry, just cooler).

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you said SW but tally mentioned the south.. 😏 

eitherway winter 15/16 is done for most of lowland England... Roll on the warmer days.

I've been in this business for a good portion of my fifty odd years and if there's one thing I've learnt, never be too definitive when it comes to the weather. If you try too hard to out-guess our planet's atmosphere, you'll be embarrassed more times than not. 

Whatever the models project, there is more than enough legs on this winter to deliver the unexpected.

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With March looking likely to feature considerable high latitude blocking but with unusually little in the way if deep cold pools to work with, in wonder if we might experience some truly bizarre events.

Imagine a low tracking into Europe and moving relatively warm, moist air our way with unusually little modification. We could see an April/May like scenario of clammy air and downpours.

Factor in the dregs of cold being held south of normal by the blocking and some nasty airmass collisions are possible. Let alone if some deep cold manages to make the trek over from east Asia (the outside chance).

I reckon Scandinavia is still capable in March of generating a cold pool sufficient for marginal snow in the UK if it is pulled across nice and quick, but primarily we need direct imports from more N than E. NW could also work if the orientation of the major cold air export from the Arctic was to shift out way for long enough... Lots of work to do under that scenario however.

I say an import from a long way east is an outside chance but actually, if ever such a thing is to happen again, this March is looking about as likely as you could get. The main uncertainty is how soon the stratospheric vortex will be taken down; anything from last days of Feb to a week into March looks possible. It looks to be a 'final warming' so quite a fast impact on the troposphere with a jump down in the AO to negative and the NAO likely already tending to be negative thanks to MJO forcing.

The 12z GFS' restoration of a strong trough over Canada and pushing poleward in lower-res (FI) makes about as much sense to be as the NHS 111 service.

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like 2003?? ☀️

From IF

The -ve screen temp anomalies from last week of Feb all the way on past mid-March (one such frame below) are generally weak - but versus previous output, now quite striking in latest EC Monthly, especially re longevity. Meanwhile, +ve PPN anomalies shift increasingly southwards through England and into continental Europe, with mean flow varying N to NNW to NNE throughout most of run, before losing any significant signal against climatology later next month. This fits well with UKMO suspicion re colder start to spring

https://nwf.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_2016_02/Screenshot_2016-02-18-22-16-24-1.png.eeea27e558a552e5f2e31afb0c13418b.png

 

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Again J F F

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The only cooler period is for Scotland and even this will just be for a day.

After 6 hours of drier weather, tomorrow it's back to rain - Not long before the worst winter in memory is over. - In terms of cold, frost or snow!

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Southerly tracking jetstream favoured then.

As SC has commented, with a lack of cold air that may just be a recipe for cold gunk. 

1C average negative anomaly would be fine if it was all squeezed into a week, i.e. 4C negative.

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ECM 12z ensemble for London

Mild weekend followed by a rapid return to average and then down into cold territory from Day 8, with the mean and Op in decent agreement.  The dominant cluster past Day 10 is cold, daytime maxima around 5C and overnight frosts.  No sign of early spring warmth at all.

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A zonal pattern remains today but with caveats.

A wet weekend with flooding issues along the polar frontal boundary with a large thermal gradient so very mild in the south but still quite cold in the north.

A brief countrywide colder spell looks likely in the early part of the week with some more sharp frosts.

Thereafter its pretty standard February fare with uppers remaining sub-zero but not desperately cold away from the odd outlier.

Generally rather unsettled. 

Re. Your first sentence, even this morning it remains totally wrong. Elsewhere things are closest to average but your first statement is both inaccurate and misleading, Any look at the charts or even Met Office or BBC forecasts will show that. It is a cool albeit not especially cold outlook up here.

As a caveat thus does not mean ice days and snow in south Devon. 

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Tally, living where I do I understand your frustration but you'll probably be better off venting it in the Winter Moaning thread. Making statements like that in the MO thread will attract the data-loggers and there will always be someone who will want to correct you.

It might be better to have regional threads where we can moan and groan with like-minded locals without the North/South bias getting in the way of a good gripe. This idea has been discussed at administrator level for many years and for understandable reasons has never made it to the board, but you can always suggest it again for next year?

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GEFS control offers a -10C 850 teaser way out in FI for S UK

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/0_342_850tmp.png?cb=341

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I think Sevendust sums it up nicely, for the period upto and including T144hrs, just like he says.

February Week 2 and 3 are much in similar vain to giving a right mix of extremes, with Sevendust and nsrobins plus roger63 type caveats, highest chance of cold and wintry weather up in Scotland and North NW and NE England, sometimes North and NE Wales as well.

Some heavy rains for the West and Central UK parts..., and the lesser rain for the far West  NW,  and parts of Southeast of the Country, but even here it will get some mod-heavy rain but shorter and less heavy on some days, and for here some days will be colder with chance of some hill snow and hail or sleet/ rain showers depends on the 850's, 2m temps, source of airmass, wind direction and chill factor, and cloud/sun etc.

Some dry and mild and sunny spells this weekend and on Tuesday particularly Western NW tern and Southern to SE parts as well as the SW side particularly this weekend, then by Tuesday parts of Central and Eastern and NW UK will see some average Feb. Temperatures, some less cold!, but note where I say dry on Tuesday!.

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY FEB 19TH 2016

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION  A milder and stronger Westerly flow will develop behind a trough of Low pressure moving East over the UK today clearing all but Southern England tonight and returning North as a waving feature across the Southern half of the UK in the coming days.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across much of the UK is on the rise for many today as fronts move East introducing tropical air across the far South through the weekend and rising the freezing level to as high as 10,000ft come Sunday while North of the front in Scotland freezing levels will be around 2000ft meaning a big contrast across the UK.. Snowfall will remain restricted to Scottish mountains through this weekend.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Some rain or showers at times with snow over hills. Temperatures mostly near or somewhat below average though with a few short milder interludes in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream strengthens over the coming days blowing in a West to East direction across the UK for some time before slipping further South later next week as a UK trough develops. Thereafter the flow appears to realign SW to NE across Scotland at the end of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today maintains it's changeable theme with some colder periods especially over the first week with wintry showers and with equally milder periods too across the South with cloudy and occasionally rainier times. Little changes within Week 2 though with higher pressure due to closer proximity to High pressure to the South and SW at times there may be less in the way of rain in the South longer term and temperatures never look like being particularly cold in the South either by then with wintry showers in polar maritime incursions restricted to the North.

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run today shows a changeable and sometimes rather cold theme going for all areas throughout the two week period as successive Low pressure areas crossing the UK and exiting the East swings winds into a cold NW flow at times with wintry showers at times before less cold and milder Atlantic air returns.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show 70% of members clustering around a solution that would maintain Atlantic Westerly breezes with rain at times with some colder NW winds shown by 35% of members within this group. There is a remaining 30% of members who place High pressure over or close to the UK with fine and dry weather more likely with frost and fog patches by night in light anticyclonic winds.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows Low pressure up to the NE of the UK early next week with another centre out in the Atlantic preventing the cold NW feed shown by other output from reaching the South where it will probably stay mild until midweek whereas the North sees colder conditions with wintry showers. Then as the Low in the Atlantic shifts across the UK and away to the East the door then opens more for colder air with wintry showers to reach the South too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today go against there raw data and push the colder NW flow down across the UK early next week with a subsequent ridge drying things out midweek before signs of further Low pressure entering the West by Day 5 from the West.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows a Westerly component to the winds across the UK throughout the next 10 days. Next week shows a lot of NW winds and wintry showers across the North whereas the milder South becomes somewhat chillier over Monday. Then after the chilly theme of next week signs of a split in conditions between a milder SW and a colder at times North and East where further rain and showers, wintry on hills look feasible in stronger NW winds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM is somewhat different evaporating the milder West winds over the South this weekend and replacing it with a complex slack pattern of Low pressure across the UK later next week with rain at times, falling as sleet or snow over the hills.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning shows a lot of SE moving Low pressure next week as the mild Westerly flow at the weekend is pushed away by chilly NW winds and showers, wintry on Northern hills from Monday. A small disturbance near the far South midweek could prove problematical in detail for a time where some rain and hill snow is possible before all areas become rather cold and unsettled as Low pressure slips SE across all areas late next week and becomes slow to clear from the South in a wrap around Easterly flow with rain and sleet. High pressure then straddling the North of the UK from both the SW and NE ensure cold and drier weather here to end the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today shows the Jet stream a long way South in 10 days with a NW feed of air most likely across the UK  with Low pressure close to the NE stretching up to the NW. Rain at times look the most likely pattern with a lot of the rain showery in nature and under a NW flow some colder air at times would likely bring some snow at times to the hills.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There are again many differences in evolution shown this morning of a broad Westerly based weather pattern between the outputs this morning with little specific cohesion between outcomes  from quite early next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 92.0 pts to UKMO at 89.9 pts and GFS at 88.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 70.9 pts to 66.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads today at 51.7 pts to GFS's 51.5 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   Not a lot of clarification in future events shown from the models this morning. The weekend is well agreed upon though with most areas facing yet another weekend of largely cloudy skies with rain at times in a blustery but mild Westerly flow. Central areas could see the most rainfall while Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland see colder and more showery weather and this is then shown to push SE across the UK early next week. It's then that the models diverge mostly surrounding the way in which a shallow Low in the Atlantic integrates with the pattern across the UK with some output showing this becoming a major system with gales and rain for a time others show it as a filling and weak feature with just patchy rain in the South. The pattern then becomes no clearer as from some runs we have High pressure to the South and SW becoming more influential with time and supporting a Jet Stream further North whereas the likes of ECM prefer keeping the Jet Stream well South of the UK and maintaining a NW feed of rain and showers falling as sleet and snow in rather cold air at times as Low pressure areas are shown to continue to slip SE down the North Sea. So as we approach the weekend the models need to handle the pattern next week better before any guarantees of any particular weather type looks likely. The one thing I can say is that nothing alarmist is shown in any output this morning with pretty bog standard Winter fare weather shown for many in the next few weeks. I'll be back on Sunday morning for a further update.         

Next Update Sunday February 21st 2016 from 09:00

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ECM out on its own again, sending the trough under and keeping it cold. GFS not having any ot it and any block comes in March. UKMO in between.

I can understand the frustration.

 

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