Enough variation in GEFS to keep interet going until Feb 29h.

Maybe up north but down here there's really not much to cheer about if you're after anything wintry. Here's the ECM ensemble output for Reading for this morning - note the way even the coldest members still have highs of 3C.

Compared to 2005 (which led to days of snow here in late Feb, albeit wet stuff that was constantly thawing), it's a world apart:

NB, I know Reading isn't exactly a proxy for Kent, but it's the only decent ensemble data I have.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn5417.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6017.gif

Colder air finally pushing South

A wintry mix on the Northern flank of the LP

A textbook winter "Creasterly" Gooner.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016022006/gfs-0-192.png?6

the behaviour of this low is going to be crucial. We could be very mild or very cold

Yet again brilliant set up but nothing to tap in to

NH View on Meteociel

Tight isobars giving a strong NEly

More promising synotpics pumping out today, echoing previous posts

Yes - no cold to tap into, but plenty of time for that to be resolved.  Only thing bothering me at the moment, is how much charts have downgraded this winter, so the below really more than ever should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Colder air down across the UK in the NEly

I think the next "mission" is to figure out what that south-tracking low pressure is going to do for us at around the 190 hrs range.
  Will it merely keep things cool and unsettled in a "continental way" or will it open the floodgates for one last stab at an easterly? The trouble is 1) lack of real cold air over the near continent to tap into and 2) need good proper cold 850's (-8 C and below), of which, that too is lacking and 3) it's at 190 hours away - a long way off in forecasting terms and thus still very subject to further fine tunings/downgrades - or even upgrades.

Although other models are available and most are showing a variation on a similar theme, I'm using the GFS to highlight my point . . .

Thats been the issue all winter. Infact this whole scenario smells very similar of the delayed, delayed and delayed cold spell we got back in Jan?  (or was it dec?)  Where a big LP ran over the uk, but didnt move south enough quick enough to introduce cold air above us, it just stagnated and mixed / moderated the cold air above us, introducing lots of cold rain.

My thinking is this pattern will happen again.

Not just the continent that is unusually warm either. With temp deviations of up to 15 - 20 deg.c above normal around the Fram Strait to the Barent Sea, would be really hard to see even the brief swings of northerlies that are forecast being all that cold.

Again there is no real blocking up in Scandi. We had this set up a couple weeks ago and all I brought was +5c with cold rain. Also as we got nearer towards the actual day it got downgraded a bit like the January cold spell that never was to be so I am NOT falling for it this time.

I think the GFS is blowing that Low up out of all proportions and next weekend probably won't look much like that at all.

Given we have no monstrous blocking to the NW or NE looking possible it's a case of hoping the difficult synoptics fall right to coincide PPN with being on the cold side of the jet, with as others have said, not much cold ENOUGH air around.

This is what we need right High pressure over Western Russia and Scandinavia to drag in colder Siberian & Scandinavia air? But instead we have S. Easterly winds moving around the LP and coming up from central Europe where it hasn't really been that cold, when we should be having the winds coming around the HP up north bringing in colder air as you can see below - Have I got this right?? - Notice the lack of blocking up north...where is it? This LP would be perfect if there was a blocking pattern!! - We had this issue last week or so and in the end all we got was +5c with cold rain.

What are your thoughts on my thoughts? - This is the last chance for winter 2015/16.

yeh I think your right- these dartboard lows are persistent features on GFS the further out you go. I would think an adjustment north may also be taken seriously, and with little or no cold air to drag to our shores it will be another tease and near miss scenario. That said, there is much to play for so further runs needed. A real shame to waste such charts if indeed they were to materialise- a few weeks earlier and we would have been in business 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2016022006/navgem-0-144.png?20-12

NAVGEM has a different option. the low disrupts, perhaps a more realistic outcome

By 12z Tues, see below (00z run; NOT to be construed as snow necessarily settling). However, and without wanting to sound like stuck record, bear in mind ECMWF develops solid PPN too readily and thus tends to overplay snow coverage (GFS even worse). 00z UKMO-GM not keen on this outcome but given complexities of set-up, it's unsurprising to currently see little consensus. The 'snowier' outcome currently rated 30-50% Tues/Weds. Further ahead, MOGREPS-15 ENS are dominated by a markedly cold, stiff E-NE regime by weekend of 27-28th: far more dominant a signal in that suite versus the more mixed 00z EC-ENS.

From IF

It will be an interesting week but am I right in above? i.e the lack of blocking to the north is the reason for the lack of real cold air. ?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016022012/gfs-0-114.png?12

its disrupting

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2016022012/UW96-21.GIF?20-17

UKMO so far

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016022012/gfs-1-132.png?12

staying cold all week, snow moving in

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016022012/gfs-2-138.png?12