A zonal pattern remains today but with caveats.

A wet weekend with flooding issues along the polar frontal boundary with a large thermal gradient so very mild in the south but still quite cold in the north.

A brief countrywide colder spell looks likely in the early part of the week with some more sharp frosts.

Thereafter its pretty standard February fare with uppers remaining sub-zero but not desperately cold away from the odd outlier.

Generally rather unsettled. 

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

Southerly tracking jetstream favoured then.

As SC has commented, with a lack of cold air that may just be a recipe for cold gunk. 

1C average negative anomaly would be fine if it was all squeezed into a week, i.e. 4C negative.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

That would be correct if we were relying on anything coming from the continent but with an expected flow from a N/NW/NE direction, any flow coming from  Arctic regions  should make things interesting at times, maybe.😬

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

It seems to me from this morning's output that almost anything could happen over the coming week or two. One thing that is not being suggested though as far as I can see is a return to the sort of pattern we saw during the first 6 weeks or so of the winter, i.e exceptionally mild and often very wet with it. It still looks pretty unsettled for sure, but of a more wintry type at times than was the case a couple of months ago.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

With the Arctic having one of it's warmest winters on record and sea ice at a worrying low level even a direct Arctic blast will do well to deliver especially down South.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

I don't agree with that assessment as a true Northely blast would bring the threat of snow to southern England.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

 Ready For Spring then...... 

This only happens once every four years and the GFS has it starting mild.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I don't agree with that assessment as a true Northely blast would bring the threat of snow to southern England.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Not over the past few years! Nothing more that a little sleet.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Not over the past few years! Nothing more that a little sleet.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Afternoon

Thanks for the running commentary yesterday - some of it a little harsh as I dont come on here & NW to say its going to be cold & never post unless theres a chance - also illustrating that chance as well

Whats the point of saying it will be mild?
I did make that call @ xmas & if people would care to go back & look you would be surprised how close the cold got V the GFS forecast

Interestingly ( & ironically ) - maybe I have got the midas touch lol & should forecast mild more often as the 12z has totally & utterly backtracked to the UKMO at 72.

Anyway - thanks for the posts yesterday - just remember I post for enjoyment like the rest of us .....
If I was being a serious weather forecaster then half the stuff I wrote would then be excluded.....

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

Tally, living where I do I understand your frustration but you'll probably be better off venting it in the Winter Moaning thread. Making statements like that in the MO thread will attract the data-loggers and there will always be someone who will want to correct you.

It might be better to have regional threads where we can moan and groan with like-minded locals without the North/South bias getting in the way of a good gripe. This idea has been discussed at administrator level for many years and for understandable reasons has never made it to the board, but you can always suggest it again for next year?

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Anyway - thanks for the posts yesterday - just remember I post for enjoyment like the rest of us .....
If I was being a serious weather forecaster then half the stuff I wrote would then be excluded.....

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

Yes Tally, if you post incorrect foundationless nonsense you will no doubt get it corrected by factual statements which can be backed up with evidence.  Neil, surely correcting someone's obvious total misinterpretation of the model output is a good thing rather than something to be criticised? To suggest it will not be cool in the north for more than a few hours when the charts have it cool for days on end and there is now a weather warning out for snow and ice is a bit silly?

There is no need for a regional thread just an acceptance that there are regional difference in the output! This continues in the 12z GFS which again paints a cool and at times wintry output in the north with things a bit closer to average in the south.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Yes, you're right, on that run it looks to me like the rest of February makes average daytime temps in the south, with a few colder and a few warmer nights; oh, and a couple of warmer days. Quite warm this weekend. I think 7 to 8 is pretty average for late February, with some 9s too. Over much of southern England.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Just shy of 11C this lunchtime before the cloud arrived... 😊

I also think a regional one would be good as so often in here you get northerners talking about the cold when the south isn't getting, and conversely in the summer it's us southerners often talking about good weather whilst the northerners wondering what the fuss is about whilst they get soaked 😂

Originally Posted by: picturesareme