Met Office Hadley        5.2c.    Anomaly      1.5c.     Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                    4.96c.    Anomaly       0.76c.

Netweather                 5.56c.    Anomaly       1.37c.

PSJ                             5.3c.     Anomaly        1.6c.

Still going down, and last night was nippy. Keep a close watch. I reckon 5.03C now needed for the final 11 days.

Forecast summary

• UK 5 days


• UK 6-30 days

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Feb 2016 to Friday 4 Mar 2016:

Cold conditions are likely to persist in the north during Wednesday, with wintry showers in places. Further south, cloud and rain may spread in from the west, perhaps bringing snow along the northern edge of this area. There will then be a drier, brighter interlude, before unsettled conditions spread eastwards across the UK later next week. This will herald a return to changeable conditions with wind and rain from the Atlantic, interspersed with colder, brighter and showery interludes. Often windy, with gales at times. There will also be some sleet or snow at times. Drier conditions may develop in the north by early March. Temperatures will generally be below normal for the time of year.

NOT MUCH SIGN OF A RETURN TO MILD IN THIS UPDATE

My latest estimate is for the February CET to finish at 5.24C.

The winter CET would then finish at 6.84C which is 0.10C above the current record of 6.74C recorded in 1868/9. So the record is still looking on at the moment.

The warmer weather over the next 3 days is key to achieving the record. Without that it would be touch and go. That said we could still be in the balance if some very cold weather turns up later next week.

So if we look at those years since 1950 which have seen all three winter months with well above average temperatures we find that the March CET also tends to be very warm (above 7C). There is only one exception in 1994/5.

So my money at the moment is on a very mild March.

Year         Dec    Jan     Feb     Mar

1956/7     5.7C   5.5C   5.3C   9.2C (record March CET)

1988/9     7.5C   6.1C   5.9C   7.5C

1994/5     6.4C   4.8C   6.5C   5.6C

1997/8     5.8C   5.2C   7.3C   7.9C

2006/7     6.5C   7.0C   5.8C   7.2C

2013/4     6.4C   5.7C   6.2C   7.6C

2015/6     9.7C   5.4C   5.2C (est)

CET is still quoted in HADCET as 6.77C.

It would be an apt contrast if this winter had mean temperature the same as the whole of 1740. It could be close...

Met Office  Hadley                5.1c.          Anomaly          1.5c.    Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                             5.11c.        Anomaly           0.91c.

Netweather                          5.55c.        Anomaly           1.36c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather        5.4c.          Anomaly           0.9c.

Clevedon Weather                6.8c.          Anomaly           2.5c.

Mount  Sorrel                       5.3c.          Anomaly           1.1c.

Peasedown St John               5.3c.          Anomaly           1.6c.  

Met Office Hadley         5.2c.        Anomaly      1.6c.  Provisional to   20th.

Metcheck                     5.40c.      Anomaly       1.20c.

Netweather                  5.72c.      Anomaly       1.53c.

PSJ                              5.3c.       Anomaly        1.8c.         

No Update From Met Office Hadley Yet.....

Metcheck      5.59c.    Anomaly  1.39c.

Netweather   5.98c.    Anomaly  1.79c.

PSJ               5.8c.     Anomaly  2.1c. 

It would be the ultimate irony if this record just failed to be beaten due to the extra day this February.

Latest output suggests the extra day could make all the difference. I am now expecting us to miss the record.

Latest charts for February and winter. CET for February now expected to come in at 4.83C. Still above average but not by much.

The winter CET comes in ay 6.69C which is 0.05C below the 6.74C of 1868/69 (when calculate using daily data). It would be touch and go if it was not for the leap day. Still some time to go so it could still fluctuate in either direction. But there is now a significant likelihood of us missing the warmest winter on record.

Early heads up for March. Met Office contingency planners forecast suggests an average March is the most likely outcome. Some cold and some milder spells basically cancelling each other out.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/t/i/A3_plots-temp-MAM_v1.pdf

A late posting form metoffice.gov.uk                  Met Office Hadley       5.5c.  Anomaly  1.8c.    Provisional to the  21st.

Is winter 2015-16 going to do a Devers-Roberts?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Bi3n1Jytfso

A Devon Loch?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5xAR151sdS0

Met Office Hadley     5.5c.     Anomaly      1.9c.    Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                 5.54c.    Anomaly      1.34c.

Netweather              6.0c.      Anomaly      1.81c.

PSJ                         5.9c.      Anomaly       2.7c.      

With 84 days of winter gone and using the provisional CET mean data for Feb up to 22/02 + confirmed for Dec and Jan we are currently standing at 7.03C compared to the record mild for 1868/9 of 6.74C

So for the remaining 7 days it needs to average 3.26C or higher to grab the record

Looking at the city forecasts for the CET area, this is about what they are forecasting for the next week so this like being too close to call and should be just about equal to the record give or take a whisker

Yes 3 days with a mean of 7.9C have shifted the balance again. Some cold stuff to follow again though...

Met Office Hadley                5.5c.          Anomaly        1.8c.   Provisional to  23rd.

Metcheck                            5.39c.        Anomaly        1.19c.

Netweather                         5.92c.        Anomaly        1.73c.

PSJ                                     5.8c.         Anomaly         2.1c.          

A very interesting Thursday to Tuesday as we see if the record falls or not. We need 5.15 as a final figure I believe. This is one of the closest cet climaxes I think I've ever seen. We stand at 5.5 so far.

If the current output verifies the winter record will not be broken. My current estimate is for the CET to finish at 4.78C in February. 

Shows how difficult that winter CET record is to break. Take out that December,  January and February have been pretty bog standard mild months overall. It's December that is going to make this winter so memorable, temperature wise.