Smack me in the mouth if I am wrong - But where is the LP system to bring the snow or sleet that was forecasted for next weekend?

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If the sun is out it will be a real bonus, as its growing  strength starts to show from now on.

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Is it me or is every potential (when we do get one) for a cold wintry spell keeps getting downgraded this winter? Just wondering your thoughts? This has happened before? Last night models showed the low pressure brining in and easterly wind with sleet or snow for the South coast now it looks bone dry As Notty said? - The last chance we would have all winter to have a decent cold wintry spell get's down graded during the last few days of winter LOL. - I was looking forward to this too.

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so many factors come into play when forecasting snow in Southern Britain its unsurprising that often potential isn't realised. Personally I would rather we didn't realise the precipitation factor as I would rather have a week of dry cold weather than marginal sleety stuff.

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We could end up in no mans land - cold but no snow - and ends our mildest winter on record chances as well - hope not

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Well today's charts/runs couldn't be more different even if it tried. It's bone dry next Saturday & Sunday! The standard let down/downgrade - Typical. The only hope for a chance of snow this winter has now been dashed!

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That's what happens when you pin your hopes on precip charts 7 days away! For now just be happy it's trending cold, the finer details can be speculated but not trusted until less than 48hrs away, and even then the situation is often likely to change. No point torturing yourself, after all, those charts Gooner posts are JFF 

 

 

I wouldn't base a forecast for a week ahead on just one run Tallyho, as those charts will doubtlessly change again over the next few days.

 

 

 

 

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LOL, those charts are rubbish at the best of times... the GFS (and indeed ECM) woefully overestimates snow. In fact, you can see yourself how coarse those grids are... one flake on top of a hill would colour in the whole square as a "snow" square. If you get your hopes up based on them then you're just setting yourself up for an epic fall!

No, you should instead rely more on the high-res charts (available on Meteociel) and especially high-res models like the Euro4 and Arpege and NMM - these still aren't perfect but they're a damned sight better at it than the regular old GFS.

(And the time to get excited in my experience is when it's persistently shown at short-range on the Met Office local forecast output. That and having non-disputable snowworthy conditions, ie sub -10C at 850 with a moisture / convective source).

There could well be some surprises later this week but I for one am not even expecting as much as a flake of sleet where I am.

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Sure ...- but you know when you (and the north west) has had a crap winter with relentless wind and rain and each cold spell being downgraded and you think it can't get worse and when there is a glimmer of hope during the last few days of winter and then that get's dashed /downgraded it is frustrating that's all I am saying.

0/10 this winter so far.

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hope GFS has not picked up a new trend. Awful 06z and ens

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I wouldn't worry about what GFS 06z shows tbh. As far as I know it is not normally regarded as one of the more reliable runs from GFS. Best to stick with ECM, in my opinion.

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From IF

Temperatures are about to start a decline to below average and expectations are for quite a few weeks of that situation remaining, with cold/bocked weather dominating. It could last well into March. Longer range products have only just started reacting to the MJO phase 7 (which tends to have instantaneous response in outcome here) due to lag. Now we can see the direction becoming clearer in GloSea5 and EC Monthly, we await the operational model centres to catch-up. Storm track is expected to become ever more southerly in next 1-3 weeks, with inherent prospect of these passing to S-E of UK and resultant risk of wintry hazards. It's total chalk and cheese change versus winter so far and evidence is now compelling for most protracted period of below-normal temperatures seen for some time. It matches exactly the UKMO Seasonal Team assessment for this winter, but only now is the model evidence becoming well aligned. 

IF Again

EC-EPS run below average all the way to end of run (see below, Reading shown). Considering too how all 51 ENS members sit in a single cold cluster by 6 March (see below), the support for a lengthy period of NW-N'ly dominated flow, as per GloSea5 and EC Monthly, is starting to get reflected now in other products. 

https://nwf.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_2016_02/Screenshot_2016-02-21-12-30-19-1.png.0583a4b9503ab8b79009fbde78f60048.png

 

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Cart of the day because i think  its the first  METO chart showing a convincing as opposed to faux Greenland. HP.Ie real hiegt rise to the north.

TBH after the winter we have just had I will gladly take a week or two of cold, dry weather with night frosts and sunny days.

It would mean I can get outside and prepar for spring and summer, I am sick of being stuck in the house like a hermit.

A cold end to the month will also scupper the mildest winter on record, the last thing we want is GW bores gloating about a record warm winter!

In the north this winter since Christmas has just been rather mild than anything exceptional with some frost and snow, winter 1988/89 was far warmer overall than this winter north of Manchester.

Also, if it does turn cold for the next 4 weeks then it will be hats off the the MetO for it's seasonal trend although I suspect they thought colder weather would arrive a couple of weeks earlier.

But for now it's buy, buy Uncle Barty and that dreadful mega zonality.

Andy

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Indeed Roger, it has the look of a prolonged cold spell setting up. Will it be cold enough for lowland snow in the South though I have my doubts. But the Meto seem to think otherwise.

 

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Good update from fergie. Shame he is going to stop posting

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Ian has not stopped posting,however he has stopped giving info about

Snow potential after some idiots blew it all out proportion and started

Spreading ridiculous rumours on Twitter quoting his name

C.S

 

February only needs to be 5c for the record though but that looks unlikely now. It would have been a  bit of a 'fake' record though  as it was only the insanely warm December that gave us any chance. Both Jan and Feb have been very average really for modern winter months.

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About as good an update as we can hope for really at this time of year. Just need a bit of luck now.

 

 

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A cold UK

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A slight shift in wind direction brings some wintry ppn in J F F of course

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Could be a re-run of March 1995. That March actually saw more snow in my area, according to my recollection, than the same month in 2013 even though March '13 was considerably colder than 1995.

A repeat of the spring & summer which came later in 1995 would be most welcome!

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UK at 96h

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Easterly a tad better than the 6z

Cold

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