The f/casts do look interesting but on the east coast this late in the winter, and with the temp of the North Sea above average I reckon we'll just be getting rain from an easterly airflow...so I'm not holding my breath...

I'm not sure how "As things stand this looks ideal for a snowy spell" and "could bring some sleet/wet snow inland?" sit well together! Sleet is the ultimate enemy of the snow-lover - so near yet so far!

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By GFS standards we see remarkable grouping out to the 26th Feb:
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=534 

Things change of course, but the misconception that it can 'only be modified' is not strictly true, and it could indeed look colder come the weekend turning marginal to the right side for general snowfall.

In a winter of unrealised potential, perhaps nature will have the last laugh?

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I hate to say it but this morning's runs see a further decline in actual PPN - everything seems shunted further south and east, which means colder but drier for most.

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Certainly a cold end to february looks certain now but probably only cold enough for snow at night and then only just in the South. The cold end though will almost certainly scupper the chances of the warmest ever winter.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html

 

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Chart of the day probably goes to the ukmo day 6 but it's still borderline snow for the south. Still we're in with a chance which is better than its been for 99% of this sorry excuse for a winter.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

 

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The time of year progged is too late in winter for an 'easy win' situation for snow down south anyway.
People will harp on about March 2013 but that was an exceptional circumstance.
With the days now drawing out and sunlight getting stronger it's just too tricky.

Indeed, none of the stuff on offer this morning looks snowy to me for the south - just rain, not even especially cold rain at that!

To get lowland settling snow in the south from now onwards you generally need:

• A maximum of -10C 850s for more than a few hours (subtract a degree for every 150 feet ASL) or


• A short-sea-track feed from an already freezing Continent

The mainland of Europe is anything but cold at the moment, so that just leaves us with the -10C option - something which isn't even shown on GEFS, for example!

There is always a really remote chance that the stars will align for a particular area inland from the sea, but that's all it is... a really remote chance.

 

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Hi Darren

I think whilst what you say is spot on to guarentee snow - looking at todays models esp the UKMO I do think we have more of a genuine chance of snow in the south ( maybe M4 boundary is usual location) & the word remote is a bit overly strong - I would say borderline.

We have true polar sourced air ( first time this winter ) circa -8c in last week of Feb, mixed to the surface over 3 days -

I think therefor london central may get to 5/6c but outer more rural areas will be peaking around 3 with temps dropping quickly in the afternoon -

I think we need a tad of luck - IE PSPN arriving overnight & looking at UKMO a more SE flow would help - but I believe theres a genuine chance...

GEM looks good today !

 

Yes it's looking marginal, but who knows if any precip falls overnight then we may get the odd snowfall. Some frost may be about as good as it gets- just please- no more rain!!!

I remember heavy snow from this- I was moving house in Bournemouth on 1st March and it snowed for much of the day.  The uppers aren't -5 even. There is some cold air over E Europe though.

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Here's the ECM output this morning. Bear in mind that in 2005 (which was a textbook borderline situation) the predicted highs were a couple of degrees down on this...

That's no surprise though, coming as it did from a freezing month (Feb 86) - the depth of low-level cold was such that it took a heck of a lot to finally shove it out of the way!

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true but SSTs would have been far below normal after the preceding February, in total contrast to this year. 

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Hi Steve.

I think the timing of ppn is as you say an important factor, as is the intensity. Things aren't always as black and white and I for one would expect snow to make some headlines before this time next weekend. Some of the higher ground (not just the hills) and rural parts will see some snow IMO.

It's rare to see the PV so weakened and with many of the ENS showing this N/NE/E flow for the UK - with quite some consistency. Certainly the most interesting time ahead for the UK..... and IMO, better late than never.

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I think Retron is being unduly pessimistic regarding snow potential down south given some of the cold uppers being forecasted.

If memory serves me well Kent was brought to a standstill during Easter 1975 when a line of heavy snow showers formed in a unstable northerly flow, pictures of holiday tents collapsed under the snow filled newspapers on Easter Monday. That very snowy Easter was at the end of March following one of the mildest winters on record and the northerly flow it occurred in was hardly a classic.

Run the charts from 27th March 1975 to 1st April 1975 and you will see what I mean, it wasn't just Kent, very few places in the UK escaped lying snow during the Easter period snow even lay at Heathrow for a while.

Increased solar heating during this spell actually increased snowfall rates with billowing cumulus clouds filled with snow racing across the landscape, on the 27th March an area of showers over the Liverpool Bay moved SE through the Cheshire Gap intensified under the spring sunshine and dumped 10-15cms of snow on Birmingham during the afternoon.

The cold, slack northerly next week looks very similar to that spell with similar uppers and surface conditions.

Andy

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Yes, I think the greater issue will actually whether we see much precipitation at all.

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I'm pretty sure that if this February had turned out to be as mild overall as Feb 1998, as predicted by some people here a month or so ago, this winter would almost certainly have beaten the record of 1868-69 as the mildest winter on record. There has never though, as far as I have seen, been any suggestion from the model output over the past few weeks of this month being like February 1998, at least not with any consistency.

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY FEB 21ST 2016

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A mild Westerly flow covers the South of the UK while a cold westerly flow covers Scotland and Northern Ireland. Separating the two is a slow moving frontal trough oscillating North and South over Central Britain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK currently sees the level at 10000ft over Southernmost England and 2000ft across Scotland where some snowfall is likely across the higher ground in the form of showers.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Some rain or showers at times with snow over hills. Temperatures mostly near or somewhat below average.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is shown to trough strongly to lie well to the South of the UK by the end of the coming week in association with Low pressure there. Later in the period there is some suggestion of the flow migrating back North towards crossing West to East across the UK in Week 2.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the UK heading for a shift to generally rather cold conditions as the current Westerly flow weakens in the days ahead at the same time as rather colder air seeps slowly South to all areas from Scotland over the next 48hrs. Thereafter winds will strengthen from the east or NE for the first time this season and bring cold and raw conditions with rain and sleet at times with snow over the hills especially towards the South and East, Then in the second week a slow return of West or NW winds and changeable conditions is shown with rain at times and snow at times on hills of the North.

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run today shows a similar theme to the Operational Run with this weeks colder conditions gradually returning back to less cold and changeable conditions with Atlantic westerlies through Week 2.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show a lot of marginality between them ranging from a slight bias in favour of High pressure lying to the South in two weeks time but with many other options too none of which look particularly troublesome in terms of cold or any other severe weather type.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows quite a quiet week to come on the while as pressure becomes quite slack over the UK as it gently falls in response to Low pressure slipping SE to the West of the UK by next weekend. Colder air will slowly become established across the UK through the week with some frosts and rain or sleet later following the wintry showers across the North and East beforehand.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today supports the theme of the raw data with the UK lying in nomansland weather-wise this week as no real pressure system has overall control of the UK weather. The main theme though supports colder and fair conditions with just coastal wintry showers through the middle section of the week before approaching fronts from the Low pressure to the West threaten the SW by next weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM too shows the UK slowly slipping into colder conditions overall as the current pressure pattern is reversed by the end of this week with the current westerly flow becoming slack over the coming days and then reverses to an Easterly flow by next weekend with some rain or sleet at times across the South from next weekend with a raw wind and cloudy skies.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM is quite gentle on conditions across the UK over the next week with slack pressure over us and major pressure systems staying off shore from the UK. The current mildness over the South will be replaced by colder air over the coming days but largely dry and bright weather will prevail through the week though a few coastal wintry showers and cloudier spells in the South with a little rain or perhaps sleet seem possible at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning follows the theme of slack pressure developing across the UK through the coming week and continuing on this run well into the second week too. In weather terms although details are elusive the theme would suggest rather chilly and benign weather on most days with temperatures certainly declining away from current levels in the South. With no major Low pressure systems making landfall across the UK rainfall will be patchy and unevenly distributed and with temperatures lower than of late some snow or sleet is likely over hills but unlikely to be disruptive or bothersome for most away from the highest ground.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today is made up from a lot of different options most of which show rather cold air across the UK with some showing a chilly Easterly flow while others hold the majority of members in a NW flow with some showers and Low pressure to the East or NE and higher pressure towards the SW. The confidence on the viewpoint shown by the Mean chart this morning is low.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme is for a rather quiet and benign period of weather to develop across the UK this week lasting for some time.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 92.1 pts to UKMO at 90.0 pts and GFS at 88.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 71.9 pts to 66.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS leads today at 53.7 pts to ECM's 53.6 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS In the couple days since my last report the models seem to have developed some clarification in what is quite a complex pattern synoptically over the next week or two. In sequential terms what we have currently is a sharp contrast North to South across the UK separated by a wavering front across Northern England. To the North of it the Westerly flow brings wintry showers and cold conditions while to the South of it dull and drizzly but very mild weather continues for another day or so. Then the front moves gently South clearing the South on Tuesday with quiet and rather cold conditions developing countrywide for many areas for the middle section of the week with some coastal wintry showers confined to the North and East while frosts at night could become widespread. Things complicate later in the week and through the second week as Low pressure is progged to move South of the UK by next weekend and while this would normally suggest a very cold period across the UK at this time of year no seriously cold air is available to tap into so instead it looks likely that the weather will just stay rather cold and in places dull and raw with rain or sleet at times and perhaps snow over the hills. It may equally prove that the North stays bright and cold with night frosts through this period before the general theme of a slow return to Atlantic West or NW winds seem probable through the second week with rain at times especially in the North with snow on hills still likely and temperatures back to average or slightly below. So there it is nothing too dramatic to report on the weather over the UK in the coming couple of weeks and while very mild weather is unlikely no desperately cold weather looks probable either though with better synoptics than recently that support cold I suppose there is always the chance of a surprise wintry event for someone.            

Next Update Monday February 22nd 2016 from 09:00

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Very consistent for this outbreak of cold............its hardly a low risk

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The snows of March and April 1975 represented for me my first significant snowfall memories.  Snow lay was 6" deep on at least two occasions. The preceding winters had been virtually snow-free for 3 years...sound familiar?

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You can't rule out snow based on uppers alone... Lower level characteristics are very important.

Fergie talks of snow risks in the south over on NW this morning and not just for high ground, so clearly the morning output is sufficient.

The bigger problem is thenprecipnmight just end up to the south, which is what ECM comes up with.

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LP much further South , less of an Easterly

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GFS bone dry next weekend

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I really wouldn't be surprised if we just end up with a load of slack high pressure over us and all the energy running south into France. Seems more and more likely with this morning's runs.

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I dont think retron is being pessimistic at all.. significant snow in the south, especially low laying & coast areas by late February/ early March is a lot harder to achieve, and it would take an unusual range of circumstances to come into place at one to allow for it. 

Snow can fall as late as April down here but solar energy is to strong and will destroy it within hours. 

Ps. Birmingham is fairly elivated inland and not in the south.