Indeed. All this fuss over cold and I'm just here enjoying the sunny, dry weather. The moon tonight is gorgeous - ditto last night. February living up to its reputation as the driest month of the year (at least in these parts).

I'm not a mild ramper I actually love the snow & freezing weather, but equally I love summer heat & humidity. I'm just very pessimistic in the winter when it comes to cold weather, and I certainly don't get warped in to delirium at the site of few cold charts a week away. 

I don't think anyone else on this site gets warped into delirium either   I wouldn't call you a mild ramper though, more a world-weary poster blighted by many years of living on a largely snowless south coast.

lovely spring like day here too on the southcoast double figure temps and im left wondering where this'shock to the system ' is the bbc were talking about sunday evening

Looking like potentially 6 dry days for many. Definitely not to be sniffed at. If you live in the south make the most of the sunshine for the next 3 days because the weekend is looking cloudy and raw.

No snow on offer now..to be honest I would be a little disappointed if a flurry of wet snow fell in the next few days.

To get 2 out of the last 3 meteorological winters completely snowless is an impressively rare beast. 

After all the wind and rain it's great that the weather has dried out and turned frosty and if it was December with winter ahead the model outlook would be pleasing. However, with winter about to end this mediocre cold spell is wasting the final few hours in the Last Chance Salon.

It's all far too little far too late.

Andy

☺️😂 yes I can agree with that. 

Too little too late it may be, but for me the current model output makes something of a pleasant change when compared against so many model runs we have witnessed almost day in, day out for the past 2-3 months. Let's be grateful for small mercies at least.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=72&carte=2000

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=96&carte=2000

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=120&carte=2000

Latest faxes.Surely there is some precipitation  over parts of UKon Friday and Sunday.Could some be snow?

Just had a look at the full ECM run and it brings in some very cold zonality towards day 10 very similar to early March 1995.

However, GFS is completely different so I won't hold my breath.

Andy

There is a Low Stuck over SW and S of Greenland, There is a Weak Low over New York and NW Atlantic, There is Heavy rain over SE USA, and S USA, SW Central USA & much other parts have clear conditions, Weak Trailing/ Back hook front approaching West NW USA, and heavy Rain South Alaska.

The Saturday Cold Easterly flow across South England (UK) with 528 dam line straddling London!, Sunday Kent could see some snow and Sleet showers, and S Scotland to Central NE midsection England and Pennines some light snow and sleet expected, this weakens and breaks as it moves through Central England, but may give a covering for those lucky - in afternoon Sunday.

It may stay cold on Monday or it might change to milder and wetter in the evening from the West and NW.

I thought GFS 12z was showing quite some ups and downs often cold conditions for next 16 days, but for next 7days: Milder on Tuesday definitely with some rain and a cooler Wednesday NW flow, then Thursday further heavy rain with chance of some colder weather on it as well snow and sleet could occur, Friday could turn colder (not this week but next week).  After that it is FI for now.

🌛🌨❄️☁️🌫💦😃.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION The slack North or NW flow established over the UK will back more Westerly tomorrow as Low pressure begins to transfer South to the West of the UK tomorrow pushing a trough slowly East towards the SW approaches.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK lies between 2000ft to 2500ft across the UK with the lowest figures towards Northern Scotland where some snow showers are occurring with wintry showers on hills of the Lake District and Cumbria as well at times.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Some rain or showers at times with snow over hills. Temperatures mostly near or somewhat below average.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is moving South to the West of the UK over the next few days and then turns East across Spain and the Mediteranean Sea. Thereafter the flow although ebbing and flowing maintains a direction of flow from the NW to the SE next week and probably beyond close to or across the UK. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure developing and sliding SE to the SW of the UK and down over Biscay and Spain with a developing and cold east flow developing over the weekend in the South. A little rain or sleet on the SW for a time will give way to a largely dry weekend with sunshine in the North and a few wintry showers near Eastern coasts. Next week sees winds backing Westerly for a time and introducing more changeable conditions alternating between cloudy and damp conditions with cold and showery Northerly flows with some snow at times on hills and in the North and East. With High pressure increasingly lying to the West of the UK later in the period there looks no quick exit to the rather cold North or NW feed of air as we move into March. 

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run today is different in the second week as it keeps High pressure further towards the South and SW of Britain rather than to the West meaning there will be more lengthy spells of less cold Westerly winds in the changeable theme of the second week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show a mix of options with the 50% share going for High pressure lying close to the SW or South in two weeks time with dry and bright conditions in a Westerly breeze in average temperatures. Some Northerly charts are also shown by some members amounting to 40% so no clear guarantees of which option is likely to verify.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an Easterly flow developing across the South towards and over the weekend as Low pressure having moved down to Spain moves ENE through the Med. A ridge follows South across the UK cutting off the cold and rather cloudy flow with a day or so of frosty weather before a flat Westerly pattern looks like developing next week with less cold weather with rain at times especially in the North towards midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today illustrate the story of the raw data well with low pressure moving past the SW with some rain or sleet and hill snow from an occlusion over Friday and early Saturday before it is swept away to the SE to leave a cold and raw NE flow with a lot of cloud and a few wintry showers near the SE for a time before the ridge over Scotland slips SE to other areas by the start of next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows good agreement with other outputs showing the passage of Low pressure to the South of the UK with a raw East wind at the weekend followed by a cold ridge of High pressure and the subsequent changeable and rather cold conditions following from the NW with rain and showers turning wintry at times especially in the North and East through the latter stages of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too takes the same track of events over the next week with changeable synoptics amounting to maintaining rather cold weather and although a lot of dry weather some wintry showers near coasts at times, a little rain or sleet in the SW on Friday and more generally next week as a chilly NW feed of air establishes.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning looks much like UKMO this morning at the Day 6 stage and this agreement supports less chance of any further cold air reaching the South after this weekends East winds and subsequent ridge passes. As High pressure is more pronounced South of the UK next week supporting a flatter Westerly flow from the Atlantic rain at times is likely in temperatures returning to average levels with any colder showery interludes restricted to the far north and NE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart has backed the flow more Westerly across the UK this morning than over recent outputs suggesting that more members are moving away from a cold North or NW feed towards a flatter Westerly pattern with a more even split of members culminating in a chart that can offer periods of both weather types rather cold or average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for a rather cold couple of weeks though ECM and UKMO support a milder Westerly pattern later.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.6 pts to UKMO at 89.7 pts and GFS at 87.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 70.7 pts to 64.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads today at 53.9 pts to GFS's 51.4 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  The models still support a lot of rather cold synoptics over the next few weeks but there are cracks in the pattern within the models with a marked change in the Euro's longer term this morning which seem to support more chance of a flatter and less cold Westerly pattern establishing later next week recovering temperatures to closer to average levels for many away from the far North. The GFS Clusters too support the above change with High pressure showing much more consistency in positioning itself just to the South of the UK rather than ridging North through the Atlantic. Though not conclusive this is a big shift away from the potentially cold and in places wintry start to March all models seem to be leaning towards as recently as yesterday and while the previous model predictions still hold some support it is without doubt a new trend that has gained quite a bit of support within a short period of time so should be taken seriously. However, in the meantime we have a rather cold and messy picture over the next 3-4 days as Low pressure slips SE to the SW of the UK and threatens some patchy rain, sleet or snow into the SW for a time and then as a NE flow develops for a time the SE and East coasts could see some wintry showers for a time later in the weekend. Then a few days of cold and crisp weather with night frosts lead us into the pattern highlighted at the top of my report with the weather taking one of two ways. As said earlier there is still some support for a lot of cold NW or North winds at times with sleet or snow showers at times especially over the North and East with short wet spells in between as new Low pressure passes Se to the NE of the UK. Alternatively the UKMO, GFS Clusters and ECM route would support cloudier and less cold weather with rain at times in a Westerly flow with the North and West as usual in these situations capturing the most wind and rain. In expressing my own opinion and given the theme of the Winter past I would come down on the side that the Euro's may well have the right message this morning with a gradual return to average temperatures later next week with some rain at times especially in the North being the growing outcome likely with only short colder interludes towards the North and NE.           

Next Update Thursday February 25th 2016 from 09:00 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=60&carte=2000

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=60&carte=2000

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=60&carte=2000

latest faxes -looks to me as if some precipitation over SW Friday/EarlY Saturday but likely to be rain rather than snow!

Looking ahead downgrades for the next slider low -no suprise there. 

Exactly Neil - Glad many of you picked this up - of course we know that there are bound to be some downgrades but the fact that every single one which was initially forecasted or looked a "COLD SPELL" has always been downgraded including January and 2nd Week of February cooler spell. I remember last week the forecast for Sunday was for wintry showers to spread southwards reaching all areas - turns out we had the warmest day of the winter reaching +16.5c here in Exeter and +14c in the south and South east. This Friday was a possibility of rain , sleet and snow for the SW but now Saturday looks bone dry and early next week looks dry and the system for next Tuesday now looks as if it's only going to bring rain/sleet over hills. Anyway it's not a LP it's an occluded front so any of the rain or sleet that does fall will be light and patchy. I know this is off topic but this was what I captured for the week ahead's summary last night: - No mention of any wintry showers let alone snow!?

I know this should be in the moan/rant thread but just adding to this:

Earlier this week this was forecasted for Saturday and Sunday: - Despite no realy blocking up north it still had the potential to give something for all of us. But this has taken a more southerly track.

Into next week GFS gives us a much colder run

That's not until Friday and will be downgraded.

My question - WHy have the models been so painful inaccurate this winter? I.E When there looks like a potential for a cold spell it always get's downgraded? Is this due to this High pressure in the Azores that won't move? Is this the Jet stream strength why is it? We are all use to downgrades but every run get's downgraded in terms of snow nearer the time? Why are they never upgraded anyone?

Is the moral of the tale don't be taken in by the hype from the cold rampers or that the models are just not accurate enough at more than 48 hours range to be taken at face value?

Cold throughout

There is no hype,..............not on here anyway. Charts are charts and they even make a fool out of the pro's

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=2

Marcus if there is one slider that might deliver snow its this one.In notice a south moving polar low at 312h which has potential.