THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION  The slack and weak Northerly flow across the UK will weaken further over the coming day or so as Low pressure to the West of the UK along with an occluded front edge in slowly towards SW England tomorrow with winds backing through SE towards the NE later tomorrow and certainly over the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK lies between 2000ft to 2500ft across the UK with the lowest figures towards Northern Scotland where some snow showers are occurring with more isolated wintry showers on hills of the Lake District and Wales as well at times. The freezing level may rise to 3000ft or so across the far SW later tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some rain or showers at times with snow over hills. Temperatures mostly near or somewhat below average.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream over the next few weeks is going to stay on the Southern side of the UK moving in a South or SE direction. Through next week it is shown to maintain it's SE axis of flow probably over or just to the South of the UK as Low pressure areas move SE across or to the NE of the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows complex pressure situations over the next few weeks ranging from Low pressure to the South at the weekend with a cold Easterly flow across the UK and then transferring that next week with Low pressure to the North and NE with rain and wind at times. Then as we move through Week 2 a deep depression is shown to cross SE over the UK with further rain before cold and drier Easterly winds return under higher pressure behind it. Through the whole period temperatures will be suppressed making it feel rather cold with frost at night and some of the precipitation events will fall as sleet or snow over the hills not always just for the North. 

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run today is quite duplicate of the Operational Run with just differences in specific positioning of High and Low pressure systems later in the period although the theme remains for conditions to stay generally on the cold side of average relative to March.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show no clear definitive theme to the 14 day point with a variety of options within the clusters ranging from High pressure close to Southern Britain to the other half of members supporting High pressure to the West and a chilly North flow down across the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an Easterly flow over the weekend in the South though it is shown to be a largely dry one. A cold and frosty ridge of High pressure then sinking South across the UK opens the door to the Atlantic with Low pressure crossing East close to the North by midweek allowing a spell of wet and windy weather then colder and more showery conditions by Wednesday for many.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a similar sequence of events as the Operational output with the main themes being the cold East flow in the South at the weekend giving way to a ridge of High pressure sinking South and bringing a spell of dry and frosty weather across the UK for a time early next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows changeable conditions over the next 10 days with much more support for rather cold conditions on most days rather than milder ones. Low pressure at first to the South of the UK with a cold easterly wind in the South transfers to cyclonic winds later next week as Low pressure slips SE down the North Sea and introduces another surge of cold Arctic air with wintry showers with the run ending in another SE moving Low pressure this time across or to the West of the UK with wind and rain for many to end the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows increasingly unsettled weather next week as the ridge following the cold East winds migrates away South early next week with westerly winds with rain or showers setting up for many areas of the UK later next week as Low pressure establishes close to the North of the UK

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning shows a very unsettled picture across the UK later in it's run this morning as Low pressure deepens and becomes entrenched across the UK by the end of next week. After this weekends well documented Easterly blast gives way to quiet conditions under a cold ridge early next week Westerly winds develop with rain and some wintry showers for a time in the North before wet and potentially very windy and cool conditions return to all areas by the second weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart has sharpened the trough down across the UK in 10 days time and with the Jet stream miles away to the South it looks like the model has swung back towards rather cold and unsettled weather likely across the UK the most likely position we find ourselves in at 10 days.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for generally unsettled weather with rain at times across the UK next week and with temperatures near or sometimes below average snow is possible on high ground in places.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.6 pts to UKMO at 89.7 pts and GFS at 88.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 69.6 pts to 64.8 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads today at 52.4 pts to GFS's 51.4 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  The the theme of the model outputs this morning show good support for the next weeks conditions before some divergences become apparent between the models longer term. The main theme though is quite easy to get a handle on as the Low pressure currently to the West finally looks un-bothersome for the UK as it slides SE down towards the Med and sets up a chilly but mostly dry Easterly flow over the South for a few days over the weekend. Further North a dry weekend with frost under a ridge of High pressure is likely and this ridge slips South down over the South too early next week cutting off the NE feed but maintaining cold and frosty weather. At the same time Westerly winds and falling pressure will affect the North on Monday and by Tuesday all areas become wet and windy for a time with snow on hills transferring to brighter and more showery conditions midweek as Westerly winds come South to all. Then specific details become harder to predict but the main theme is for further Low pressure to move SE over or close to the UK through the end of next week and week 2 the positioning and axis of flow becoming determinate on conditions at the surface. However the most likely theme will be for unsettled weather to persist with rain and showers and strong winds at times for all and with colder air never far away if not over us some of the rain may fall as sleet or snow at times, mostly but not exclusively in the hills and in the North. There is no early signs of Spring warmth shown within the model outputs this morning.           

Next Update Friday February 26th 2016 from 09:00

We can never be sure with GFS in FI, but the amount of northern blocking it is indicating in FI in the 00z this morning is the like of which we haven't seen since the set-up that produced the exceptionally cold March of 2013. What is also interesting to me is that GFS and ECM at 240hrs don't look that dissimilar.

It could just turn out to be yet another tease by GFS which comes to nothing, but there again it could be that this time it is starting to pick up on something a little more concrete. We shall see.

After the much milder blip it drops back colder but mostly close to or above -5.  At the moment we have close to or below -5 and have had above average temperatures by day - some lovely bright blue skies and pleasant late winter sunshine.  Based on this I wouldn't hold out much hope for anything more wintery than further frosty mornings if we have clear sky by night.  

This morning was very misty/foggy and cloudy but the sun burnt through to reveal blue sky by half 9.  I feel we in the southern half of the UK need to be looking for at least -10 for any chance of late winter/early spring snowfall.  In the northern half of the UK there's obviously a far greater chance of seeing snow falling and/or lying from showers or as the Atlantic tries to take over again.

That said GFS has been consistently playing with the idea of what looks like snizzle over the weekend.  Many variations have come and gone but this chart is pretty typical of what's been showing on every run.  May just give some an icing sugar type sprinkle to make everything look a little more wintery than we've seen so far.

Marcus,the 06h ENS have a good number featuring a mixture of Scandi HP's slider LP's and Greenland  HP's out in FI. However looking at uppers and ground temps difficult to pick out a perfect snowstorm-and it will likely be downgrade agogo again.

From IF

 Strong agreement on the SFC/upper high bolted in mid-Atlantic; N-NW'ly PFJ on its forward side and consequently repeated trough disruptions across western Europe and Mediterranean. Result is periods of colder Pm or occasionally Am outbreaks for the UK. Signals remain strong for this sort of rinse-repeat pattern to establish from later next week, with some EPS members offering threat of deeper cyclonicity at times (severe gales/rain/snow). Currently, GloSea5 and EC Monthly (update due tonight) retain the colder than average *overall* signal well into March but with all signals gradually weakening with time and thus becoming of little use. As I've stressed before, 'colder than average' at this time of year should not be interpreted as big freeze/snow narnia.

Indeed, but try telling that to a certain hack at the Daily Express!

Well quite. It's because Spring's coming FFS.

Frontal overlay for tommorow

Incidentally I do practice against fax charts, so these fronts aren't just drawn randomly. They generally match pretty well with fax charts. My main weaknesses are not recognizing double cold front situations (I often miss secondary fronts), upper fronts (I don't even try to include them) and troughs: I have started doing troughs but I find them harder than anything else. 

Anyway the situation for tomorrow is: A weak occluded front lies across the west, outbreaks of rain could turn to snow for parts of southern Ireland. 

Yup Marcus, it's another chilly GFS run, with a reload after the brief mild blip:-

More scatter in FI as you'd expect so scope for things to be warmer than the OP but not too any noticeable degree really.

Bit skeptical of the snow row

I like the JFF charts but how many of these have actually been realised this winter?
I declare very few.
The fact is unless we get very lucky in the next three weeks there will be no widespread lowland snowfall for the second winter in a row - the Arctic and N Europe just won't sustain the feed necessary.

And JFF, I'm happy to be proved wrong.

In the current set up there is more chance now Neil, BUT will there be enough cold ?? The pattern is there for sure but snow??

I like Marcus but I find his 'Just For Fun' charts anything but fun these days. I'm sure most would quietly agree..especially so when they show NW'ly winds in early March ushered in on cool -4c to -6c 850Hpa temps that are practically useless away from higher ground of the north and west. 

Show me -10c 850Hpa or a strong continental flow in January and February, now that's fun.

 Indeed. Sums it up nicely I think. On the plus side the outdoor season hasn't started so at least we're not seeing that wasted away...yet!

For East Kent, 100%!......wrong! The old "BBC 5 Dayers" were more accurate 

I was ripped to shreds by the hyenas who lurk on here quite recently for for saying something similar in jest 😂 You are a brave soul dear gusty😏😄

You can tell it's been a poor winter with the reactions/opinions in here 

Rewind back to a decent winter and JFF charts would be welcomed with open arms as we looked forward to the next shot of cold. This winter it's just a reminder of the many false dawns we've already endured 

That being said, what we've got now is a million times better than mild and murky muck  

Keep the JFF posts coming, Marcus - it's like a free lottery. Sooner or later we'll hit the jackpot 

You do a great job with those Q

Jesus Christ................people must have a tough life outside of here if they get upset over some graphic that shows a bit of weather .

Quite incredible that people get annoyed by a temp chart or a ppn chart.

I don't give a damn how many mild charts people show................its just the weather, not life or death .

Put point now taken

Oh ! I shall listen out for their screams and cries before legging it. Its testament then to the type of members that hang on every JFF chart that gets posted. .

Marcus provides them false hope, he's a good guy. 

Sorry mate. I genuinely thought you put these on in jest. Clearly you don't. I took you as a laid back kind of guy with a passion for the white stuff, like most of us here. Clearly I was wrong after reading your clearly annoyed and very upset reply.

D'oh 

 No thats Jires partner looking for summer heat I like it CP common guys its only weather we all have our prefer

You can delete M I dont mind it was funny