Content warning: 384 hour chart about to be posted. Don't take too literally

Reminds me of Mid December 2010. Anyway the only reason I am posting this is because we have not had any HLB this winter, and I think that is partly why we have had no deep cold to speak. Late march is a bit late for deep cold (still possible, but it needs more things to fall into place), but it would just be sods law to finally get what eluded us all winter!

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will gradually cross East over the UK today and tonight followed by a weakening occluded front crossing East over the West of the UK tomorrow

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain around about the 2000ft mark for today but with mostly dry conditions away from a little showery snow over the peaks with exposure to the North. The Freezing level edges upwards towards tomorrow towards 3000ft across the South and West. 

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming less cold and mostly dry but perhaps turning rather colder again later with frost at night.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream has a few more days of blowing South across or just West of the UK. By soon after midweek the flow severs and turns to a West to East flow to the North of the UK as High pressure slowly builds North and NE across the UK. This then sets up a period of an anticyclonic flow to the Jet stream around the UK as High pressure lies across us. Later the flow reignites and blows West to East across the UK in more unsettled weather returning from off the Atlantic.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run's theme today is for the current cold Northerly flow to be completely removed by later this week as a deepening Low crossing Southern Britain midweek with some heavy rain is the precursor to a strong rise of pressure later in the week with much milder air from the Southern parts of the North Atlantic wafting up across the UK. Then High pressure establishes across Britain with some fine and dry weather with some very mild Spring sunshine across the South and East very welcome for quite some time. Then towards the end of the period pressure collapses across the UK and on this run cooler and unsettled conditions make there way down across the UK late in the period.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a similar evolution with High pressure taking control of the weather centreing close to the UK next weekend. Any Spring warmth may be more temporary on this run though as the High moves North and a chillier Easterly flow sets up for a time across the South. Then a fairly rapid change in the second week as High pressure declines and Low pressure re-establishes to the North and East of the UK returning us to where we have been lately with cold and showery NW winds with showers turning wintry over hills.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today have returned to a colder pack this morning as many members form a camp that say NW winds will be blowing down across the UK in two weeks time with Low pressure close by to the North and NE of Britain. Of these a small 10% pack show a full blooded and cold NE flow across the UK with deep low pressure over France.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning to me looks less mild than previously thought totally due to the positioning of the High pressure in relation to the UK. So once Wednesdays wet and windy weather clears away High pressure ridges strongly across the South from a centre across Denmark and persists there through next weekend while the mildest SW winds affect the North and NW. With slacker variable winds over the South some night frosts could occur with dry and fairly benign daytime conditions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show slow changes across the UK in the coming 5 days. We still have 1 more inclement Low pressure area to endure under the rather cold conditions making Wednesday a very unpleasant wet day across the South in particular and I wouldn't be surprised to see more hill on it's Northern Flank as it clears. Then it's all about how quickly and decisively milder air from the SW engages with the rise of pressure occurs across all parts of the UK towards next weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning shows a deep low on Wednesday the last in the series of fronts and depressions that have delivered the recent spell of rather cold and changeable weather. High pressure builds in from the SW by the weekend bringing much milder and fair conditions for most of the UK. The mildness might not last long though as High pressure is sucked North and then NE to lie across Scandinavia next week allowing a feed of colder continental air to be drawn up across the UK then but still in generally dry weather with just the risk of a shower in the South and SE at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows another version of the previously shown synoptic pattern that brings early Spring warmth to the UK by and through the weekend. Enabling this is the position of High pressure close to SE England drawing up very mild SW winds across the UK with some Spring sunshine in the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today shows High pressure building up from the South towards the weekend following an inclement period of potentially wet and windy conditions on Wednesday. By the weekend pressure is High and building further across the UK with fine, milder and settled weather after a day or two of damp weather in the NW. The mild air is not shown to last long though as High pressure transfers North and NE towards Scandinavia and like GEM brings a colder ESE flow across the UK by midweek next week with potential trouble developing towards the South and SW of the UK.. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The new 240hr mean Chart this morning shows High pressure anchored over the UK in 10 days indicating almost guaranteed settled and dry weather. The only differences between members is of course the resting place for the High cell determining the conditions that can be expected towards the surface in terms of temperatures and sunshine amounts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is well set for the weather to become fine, settled and less cold from the latter end of the week with solid cross model support for High pressure to build across the UK though there is a theme developing which suggests the mildness may not last too long.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.7 pts to UKMO at 88.5 pts and GFS at 86.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.1 pts to 60.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has the lead from ECM with a score of 47.2 pts to 46.5 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  There remains strong support for a marked rise of pressure across the UK later this week and lasting for some considerable time thereafter. In the meantime we have 1 more Low pressure cell to endure as it moves into the South of the UK by Wednesday with rain and strong winds and maybe some hill snow here and there for a time. Once passed pressure rises strongly across the UK and although a short mild and damp spell may affect the North and West in particular the theme of dry and mild weather developing for many across the UK by the weekend is a strong one. There are varying choices of the resting place for the High to position itself which has fundamental implications for the strength of the warmth and sunshine amounts that will grace our shores over the weekend and start to next week. For those thinking that this is the start of a long warm spell relative to March may be a little disappointed from this morning's output as there is growing signs that the High may be pulled North and NE of the UK next week which if verified would pull winds into the East or SE bringing less mild and possibly rather chilly conditions back across the UK though it would likely stay largely settled. If things don't decline by that method there is other output that shows High pressure slipping away and being replaced by a cold NW wind and showery theme with GFS carrying this theme supported by it's clusters and ensembles. So while taking all that into account there is a very welcome change ahead for mild and settled conditions across the UK for a time commencing from around Friday and lasting for a time before things probably turn somewhat colder again and possibly more unsettled by the end of the two week period.

Next Update Tuesday March 8th 2016 from 09:00

Eastern promise at day 10 from the ECM this morning probably only cold enough for nuisance value though.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

The Mean though looks more Spring like with the high right over the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.html

Good analysis as always Gibby! 

With each run FI is leaning more and more towards this kinda evolution

an easter beast from the east?

It wouldn't surprise me if winters makes a return.

Its quite normal for further cold shots for a British Spring.

Bank !!!  Reload to the north too!!

EDIT:  probably the best i candy of the winter/spring so far.

I know those sorts of scenario can deliver snow, but it's normally (and bloody annoyingly!) short-lived.

Well well well is winter gonna bite back , let's hope so 

Until we get to all that, Wednesday looks like being a properly wet and windy ol' day for us Southern softies with 35 mph mean and up to 60 mph gusts and accompanied with persistent and heavy rain all courtesy of a compact but quite active low pressure system passing close by. I'm not expecting anything to the scale of the Great Gale of October '87, of course but it does look set to be a horrible hump day, so it seems.

At least it's not coming in from the south for a change and things should settle down for a while thereafter - anything beyond that is JFF FI in my books.

The fact that it's the second half of March, even that OP chart taken in isolation would be going some to deliver more than 36hrs of wintry ppn. My rule of thumb is as each week goes by from 1st March you need to add a minus a degree on the 850s to create the right conditions for non-marginal snowfall.

For week 3 of March a decent CAA delivering -11 or -12 uppers would be required to overcome solar insolation and deliver snowfall. Now cue all the examples that say otherwise!

normally i would agree

But March 2013 has set the bar of what can happen.  

This really does affirm the power of HLB. 2m temperatures in mid march would be lower by day than anything we have seen so far. 

Yes artcic northerlies may require a bit of extra bit of cold but cold air advecting from the continent is different. It is often much cloudier and dewpoints are still low.

Of course though the 06z GFS is pretty extreme but it can't be ruled out. Imagine some of the convection under -10C uppers when the sun does actually come out.

In the meantime we have a spell of high pressure to look forward to in a few days time but a link up with the high over Scandi is also a possibility and is being shown more frequently in recent runs.

Yes, that was going to be my point as well.

500-1,000 hPa thickness values were in the mid-520s and 850hPa values around -8C to -10C

Example:

I'm not dismissing the potential should the most extreme option of what's currently on offer verify, but it's an indisputable fact that temperatures across NW Europe have been several degrees above the long term mean since November so although I acknowledge the arguments about surface CAA and dps, etc, it would take an incredible set-up to repeat anything near March 2013.

Holy crap has anyone checked out the NASA model?

We also need to remember that 850's in March 13 were extreme. Yet even where snow fell, the sun's effect on inducing meltage was strong.

I recall one weekend when we got about 10cm of snow, the 2m temp was only just above freezing and the skies a heavy, sunless grey - yet still the snow was turning slushy by lunchtime.

Something definitely appears to be brewing could be a spectacular end to winter!

The Weather Gods farting in our face once again. Imagine that 3 or 4 days before Xmas. That'd be my dream.

Summed it up very well there SS

If is does turn out to be the case that the forecast SSW event does lead to a reversal of the zonal winds high up in the atmosphere, then we could see quite a major pattern change compared to what we have been used to over the last few months. I am given to understand that there was no zonal winds reversal with the stratospheric warming we saw last month, which is likely why we haven't as yet seen a major change away from the atlantic driven pattern we have seen throught the past winter.

It's not really a forecast SSW as much as one that is ongoing. Re. the zonal winds, there does look like being a reversal at 10hPa and 60N, so in essence this is a major event. http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=a12&var=u&lng=eng

As for implications on the UK, I wouldn't hold my breath for a very late winter's blast but nor would I rule it out entirely.

GFS produces a very mild run with the cold uppers kept well away to our East. 

Incredible GFS12z run keeps the warmth throughout next week! Polar opposite to the 6z.  Like the look of them both personally.