Yeah thanks Essan I use these pages all the time to find the mean; I meant, a long-term average for each day as the month progresses. So- what's the long term average for 3rd March, say, compared to 4th March? The anomalies posted n this thread seem to change so quickly.

So are we currently talking about a 0.2C increase daily in the T average? Where are the daily averages listed for each day of the ear? I know I could work it out from the CET daily data but I don't have it in MS Excel.

Cheers

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/85041-march-2016-cet-forecasts/?do=findComment&comment=3362326

Thats the daily 81 to 10 averages

Interesting chat about the daily data's. I know rough averages for beginning and middle to end of the month but not to the day to day. This month the big question is: Where is high pressure going to situate itself? If to the North east we could be looking CET 5 but south east and it could be 6.5. Interesting tracking this!

Thanks Gavin D for the link to Roger Smith's data- I trust since it's from you this is true to the HadCET set; the numbers don't seem to match the CET posted daily on this thread by Artzeman unless I am misunderstanding something. Is it 'cos one's a daily and one a running mean?

Met Office Hadley             4.2c.           Anomaly        -0.7c.    Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                         3.91c.         Anomaly          -2.25c.  

Netweather                      4.56c.         Anomaly          -1.75c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather    4.1c.          Anomaly           -0.4c.

Clevedon  Weather           6.2c.         Anomaly           -1.4c.

Mount Sorrel                     4.0c.         Anomaly           -2.3c.

Peasedown St John            4.8c.         Anomaly           -1.8c.     

My Annual  5.4c. Difference  -0.3c.      

Sorry for the delay in updating things at the moment. I am rather short of time. Will catch up gradually over the next few days. In the meantime here are the detailed stats for March so far and a two week look ahead. I have added in some additional data here compared to what I have produced in the past.

The first table has the daily mean data, both the provisional figures issued by Hadley and my own calculations. I also show the anomalies compared to the 1981-2010 mean figures. The figures in red are forecasts based on current output from the models.

The second table has the running mean figures for the CET mean, CET max and CET min along again with my own calculations for the CET mean. Then we have the usual graphical representations of these figures which hopefully you are familiar with.

After a brief mild start to the month it has been chilly. While we will see something a little milder later this week it will not be that mild due to continuing cold nights. Next week mean temperatures return to below average, again largely due to low minimums. So a fair chance this will be a below average month.

Met Office Hadley              4.0c.         Anomaly      -0.9c.     Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                          4.12c.       Anomaly      -2.04c.

Netweather                       4.5c.         Anomaly      -1.81c.

Peasedown St John            4.9c.         Anomaly       -1.7c.

GW - thank you; useful, rich data that I can use and I hope everyone else finds of use.

Up 0.1 Today...

Met Office Hadley      4.1c.          Anomaly        -0.9c.     Provisional to 9th.

Metcheck                  4.19c.         Anomaly         -1.97c.

Netweather               4.67c.         Anomaly         -1.64c.

Peasedown St John       5.0c.          Anomaly          -1.6c.   

It seems they do,so many years this happens resulting in an extended winter each time and it would be interesting if there is any reason as to why northern blocking is so common in the meteological spring period rather than other times of the year?? It always seems to start around mid February and often goes on until mid to late May.

It might be March but its still winter! Spring will be very late this year.

Met Office Hadley                4.2c.         Anomaly    -0.9c.

Metcheck                            4.23c.       Anomaly    -1.93c.

Netweather                         4.77c.       Anomaly    -1.54c.

Peasedown St John                5.0c.         Anomaly    -1.6c.      

I think that both February and March have undergone something of a "correction"  in the last 10 years where, having seen a remarkable run of above average editions of both months in the 1990s and early 2000s which made the onset of spring seem earlier and earlier , we have seen them both return to being more normal. Although some mild editions have still occurred (eg Feb 11, Mar 12)  these have been much less consistent than between 1989-2003, during which spell Feb 91, 96 and Mar 96 and 01 were the only truly cold ones. As a result of that run of mild years public expectations of what Feb and March should be like have shifted and an average March with what would once have been considered normal early spring weather now seems distinctly chilly.

Met  Office  Hadley               4.3c.              Anomaly    -0.9c.      Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                             4.33c.            Anomaly    -1.83c.

Netweather                          4.78c.            Anomaly    -1.53c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather        4.5c.              Anomaly     0.0c.

Clevedon Weather                 6.4c.             Anomaly      1.1c.

Mount  Sorrel                        4.3c.             Anomaly      2.0c.

Peasedown St John                5.2c.             Anomaly     -1.4c.

My Annual   5.5c.  Difference   -0.2c. 

Met Office Hadley         4.4c.      Anomaly         -0.7c.   

Metcheck                     4.52c.    Anomaly         -1.64c.

Netweather                  4.92c.    Anomaly         -1.39c.

Peasedown St John      5.4c.      Anomaly         -1.5c                 

Met Office Hadley          4.7c.   Anomaly     -0.5c. Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                      4.55c. Anomaly     -1.61c.

Netweather                   5.02c. Anomaly     -1.29c.

Peasedown St John        5.5c.  Anomaly      -1.01c. 

Do we think March is going to be cooler than January. We have to be lower than 5.44. This has happened recently as in 2013 when March was over 1c lower than January that year. At the moment I have 5.2 to the 24th.

3.7C (-1.5 ) here at half time today.
Plenty of chilly days and close to frosty nights in this fine spell.
A below average month most likely.

My Mean is 5.5c. Anomaly -1.1c.   Annual reads 5.6c. Difference -0.1c. 

Met Office Hadley      4.8c.    Anomaly       -04c.

Metcheck                  4.7c.    Anomaly       - 1.46c.

Netweather               5.09c.  Anomaly        -1.22c.    

Peasedown St John    5.5c.   Anomaly         -1.1c.

1983 a classic example of that phenomena.  Could easily happen again, for the second time in 4 winters.  March colder than January is a testament to the power of thermal lag.  Generally (not talking about 2015-16 here) March is thermally much more of a winter month than December, too. 

Here are the latest charts for March. Still looking like we will come in about 1C below the 1981-2010 mean. Staying cool for the foreseeable future. But nothing significantly below average. We could though end up with only 2 days above average this month.

Stonyhurst actually recorded a double digit mean on the 13th. Only time any of the three CET stations has done that this month. Stonyhurst is quite a bit warmer than Rothamstead this month. This is not unusual at this time of year when the winds are in an easterly quadrant.