Many areas towards the south coast taking a battering Sunday midnight to Monday lunchtime.
The storm comes in with a roar Sunday midnight hitting the Channel Islands with the highest wind speeds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn669.gif 

Jealous of those easterly wind synoptics which keep showing up in the medium to longer term and come 2 to 3 months too late. Still, would of been our luck there would not have been any cold air out there to drag in anyway!

Doesn't seem to be much on this ??

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif 

Could be very nasty for the time of year.....

---

That's why the Met Office has named the storm and why there are warnings out.  Given that there will be a lot of families out and about on Monday it's very unfortunate timing.

---

Yep it sure is...well I follow the weather and only just noticed quite how bad this could be(there were no weather warnings out for monday when I looked this morning)...and I haven't seen any news about a named storm (other from your reply to my post)....

---

Mind you, it does look like being a night time event as it scurry along Southern England and exiting the south east on the Monday morning, thus most of us should be safely indoors tucked up in bed trying to get to sleep and failing miserably what with sounds banging away outside. Again, why IS it that our strongest wind always seem to occur at night time around here?

---

I have also wondered why that appears to be the case.

There's nothing quite like the sound of rattling roof tiles for ruining a good night's sleep 

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2016032518/57-289UK.GIF?25-18

 

---

 

After all the last 3 weeks of decent weekends weather but as soon as the BH Monday arrive we looking at a very complete wash out.  Last year 2 of out of 4 BH was a complete all day washouts, 2014 was August BH washout.  It rare to see any models showing very warm weather on a BH weekend.  

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/arpege/58_ukwindvector_gust.png 

ARPEGE shows how Monday's event has two swathes of very strong winds. The first is ahead of the low and associated with the frontal boundary and sharp pressure drop, bringing gusts as high as 80 mph in the Channel, 65 or so inland.

The second, linked to above, occurs on the southern flanks of the low due to a seriously tight pressure gradient. This may well bring the strongest inland winds, with a 74 mph gust value for CS England in the above chart for example.

I am on sting jet alert too - a rapidly depending low, under a diffluent trough, that peaks on arrival, is a strong candidate. Such would affect the area on the S flank with gusts somewhere near 100 mph (specifics depending on upper level winds which I have not checked in detail - I'm on my phone today while travelling. Not driving, I should add!)

Hopefully such will be avoided. An '87 style event on Easter Monday and during daylight hours would be tragic. To be clear, I'm not predicting that at this point in time.

---

To me Katie doesn't look quite so potent on the 6z and is done and dusted sooner. May all change of course on the 12z due out in a hour and a half.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn429.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn489.gif

I was just thinking that, looks like an overnight event lasting for a few hours. I think it'll still pack a punch, though, with the southern coastal areas of Sussex and Kent bearing the brunt so I may have to brace myself for a rather noisy night anyway especially what with the wind coming straight in from the Strait of Dover.

---

Phew - keep us up to date on this - What you mention here is only 48 hours away from Monday.

 

---

Katie has looked somewhat less potent on the last few GFS runs.

On the 12z GFS Katie is little deeper in terms of air pressure. The other notable point is that GFS pushes the storm through much more rapidly than some other models.

12z GFS op 978mb at 03z Monday http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2016032612/39-515UK.GIF?26-12

12z GFS (P) 981mb at 03z Monday http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2016032612/39-515PUK.GIF?26-12

6z NMM 982mb at 03z Monday http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2016032606/nmmuk-2-45-0.png?26-12

6z EURO4 about 979mb at 06z Monday

6z HIRLAM 976mb at 06z Monday http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2016032606/nmmuk-2-45-0.png?26-12

12z ARPEGE 969mb at 06z Monday http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/runs/2016032612/arpegeuk-2-42-0.png?26-17

So we have GFS and NMM pushing Katie through quite quickly. The others have Katie arriving a few hours later. 

The intensity is fairly similar on all of the models except ARPEGE. I have been watching the ARPEGE model for the last couple of days and it has been rock solid in its treatment of Katie, both in terms of track and intensity. It wants to bring the storm to 969mb as it crosses central southern England. 

Phew - 969 is very intense. Not had that for some time now :-O

 

---

Hirlam 15z looks closer to Arpege than GFS in terms of progression.

---

The 12z ARPEGE still shows two periods of strong winds as Katie moves through. The first in the early hours of Monday with winds of around 70mph on the coast and up to 77mph in the Channel. This is at 0200 as the worst conditions move through central southern England

The second period of high winds is on the tight squeeze in the isobars as the centre of the low moves away East. Here we see winds possibly as high as 73mph inland, just briefly, which could cause real problems. This is at 09z

BST is just hours away now so from the 00Z's tomorrow all models will be out 1 hour later

Approximate update times

GFS

00Z - 04:30-05:45

12Z - 16:30-17:45

ECM

00Z 07:00-08:00

12Z 19:00-20:00

UKMO

00Z 06:00-07:00

12Z 18:00-19:00

OK chaps - those forecasting the gale on Monday - keep us informed as I live in the SE. The rest of us well :-)

 

 

---

At least it is looking more settled and even spring-like with high pressure gradually taking over later on next week, something to look forward to once we get past tomorrow & Monday's sh*te.

---

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/arpege/32_ukwindvector_gust.png 

Still we have this swathe of very strong wind gusts during the morning being predicted by the ARPEGE model.

GFS has no such feature. ECM has a stronger low than GFS so could produce it but I wonder if it may in fact be a sting jet that ARP keeps modelling.

Not sure the position of the jet is looking quite right for that but I've not had a chance to look in detail as I'm out and about all weekend.

---

The Met Office has picked up on this in the update to their warning this morning. They now mention a possible period of very strong winds inland tomorrow morning with gusts of up to 70mph. General increased confidence about the track of this system now. Not surprising given the consistency of the ARPEGE model.

The warning remains yellow for now but if the models stay consistent through the 12z this afternoon I would expect to see an Amber warning issued this evening.

The very high res AROME model shows the situation nicely. Winds of 110kph pushing into some inland areas by 04z. By 06z some very nasty conditions across Sussex and Kent with possible 120kph gusts in places. Also note the secondary area of very strong winds moving east from the Bristol Channel by 06z. This is across the heart of central southern England by 08z. Kent is getting a real battering at this time. By 10z the strongest winds have moved into the north sea but still very windy across Kent and now East Anglia.

02z http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome_uk1/runs/2016032700/aromehd-11-26-1.png?27-05

04z http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome_uk1/runs/2016032700/aromehd-11-28-1.png?27-05

06z http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome_uk1/runs/2016032700/aromehd-11-30-1.png?27-05

08z http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome_uk1/runs/2016032700/aromehd-11-32-1.png?27-05

10z http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome_uk1/runs/2016032700/aromehd-11-34-1.png?27-05

Lowest pressure is 972mb but it is the squeeze in the isobars to the south of the low centre which causes the main problems

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome_uk1/runs/2016032700/arome-2-28-1.png?27-06

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome_uk1/runs/2016032700/arome-2-30-1.png?27-06

Concerning stuff - and they have only mentioned 70 mph max inland which is a tad below ARPEGE. Hopefully that model really is overdoing it.

How quickly the low transitions to the left exit region of the jet makes all the difference. GFS is very sluggish to do that compared to most other models, hence the less vigorous solution.

10 mph in wind speed equals a far greater difference in power - the gain is exponential I think - so we're seeing in the models the dfference between mostly just branches down and whole trees plus structural damage to buildings.

---

GFS6z looks to have moved towards the Arpege solution tonight.

---

The metoffice have now put out an amber warning for wind down here tomorrow, I'm a little miffed as to why? They haven't put out ambers here in the past when 60-70mph winds are forecasted, could it be because it's Easter bank holiday and they expect more people on the roads then normal??