THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure to the NW of the UK will persist with a slack Northerly flow down across the UK over the next few days.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain around the 6000ft mark over the weekend so with the freezing level above all summits of the UK no snowfall is expected anywhere,

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly dry and bright at first then becoming less settled later in the month especially but not exclusively in the North and West.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream remains blocked by a large High close to the UK. The theme is for the block to persist for a time diverting the flow well North and South of the UK for the next 4-5 days. Thereafter, the flow becomes more active placing the UK under a trough as it undulates North and South close to Southern Britain through Week 2.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure continuing to control the weather across the UK over the next 3 or 4 days as High pressure slips slowly South just to the West of the UK over the weekend. Then a ridge is maintained across the South from it early next week with more unsettled conditions affecting the North quite early next week extending slowly South so that by Easter deep Low pressure to the NW will bring rain and strong winds to many followed by a showery spell of weather in cyclonic conditions. By the end of the run pressure has risen somewhat from the South with the more unsettled conditions more towards the NW in average temperatures overall.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the operational with the fine period continuing for a while longer but as High pressure declines away to the SW next week Low pressure developing to the NW will spread rain and strong winds across all areas by Easter, a theme which persists then for the rest of the run with an unsettled and windy Easter but with average temperatures out to the end of the month.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today remain mixed with conflicting signals from members with a slight bias favouring a SW flow with rain at times likely across the UK in 14 days time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a slide into more unsettled and windy weather next week as Low pressure to the North and NW of the UK by then replaces the recent quiet and benign conditions with rain at times and temperatures closer to average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure still in control over the period although it becomes increasingly squeezed away to the West next week as troughs begin to queue up to the West and NW of the UK by then.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning is the one model who maintains the risk of a cold Northerly flow as we move towards Easter displacing the quiet weather with a day or so of cold Northerly winds towards Easter with some wintry convective showers in places before over Easter itself a ridge returns across the UK in rather cold air masses drawn West across the UK from Europe. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure based conditions continuing over the UK slipping away to the South by the middle of next week as pressure falls to the North and NW with a SW flow developing with rain and showers moving SE to all areas in time for Easter.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning shows High pressure declining away SE too next week but it does so in a rather slower way than UKMO for example with only occasional rain reaching the South in time for Easter before a slip into somewhat deeper unsettled conditions develop for all over Easter itself as Low pressure to the North and NW exert more influence. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart shows the Jet Stream South of the UK and an unstable South or SW flow likely across the UK in 10 days as Low pressure anchors out to the West and NW of the UK with rain at times but with winds from a South or SW point it could be an awful lot colder than it will be with some warm sunshine between the showers.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is shift of theme towards a spell of unsettled westerly winds to develop across the UK over Easter and into April as the Jet Stream realigns close to the UK as High pressure slips away South.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.0 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 85.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 63.4 pts to 59.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has regained the lead from ECM with a score of 44.1 pts to 43.8 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  The weather looks like changing next week as our High pressure area looks likely to move away to the SW of the UK with Low pressure in various guises moving down across the UK from the NW. The models have moved away from a previously projected cold Northerly and moved more towards an unsettled Easter period due to low pressure out to the North, NW or even the West. This looks like that we are more likely to have winds from between South and West rather than from the North hence a rather milder prospect. However, that's where the good news ends as with Low pressure over a Bank Holiday weekend means only one thing and that is of course unsettled weather with rain at times. The North and West as always look like receiving the most of the bad weather though rain is expected for all at times along with brighter spells and showers in between. There are still a few notable exceptions to this theme shown between the models with GEM flying the flag still for a brief Northerly and wintry showers while GFS are still very muddly within their cluster data. However, leaving all that aside it does look more likely now that our fine and benign spell of weather will end at some point next week with the UK entering a phase of very typical Spring weather with rain and wind at times alternating with sunshine and showers and temperatures finishing up close to normal for late March. 

Next Update Saturday March 19th 2016 from 09:00

ECM12z showing a nasty looking area of low pressure for Easter Sunday. The trend from most of the NWP during the last 24 hours has been for more unsettled weather through the Easter holiday period.

Indeed, the trend seems to be taking shape now. Over the last few days we've had cold blasts and settled mild weather and most things in between.   The current trend is not encouraging. GFS 12z has something similar, just not quite as intense and slighly later:

Then there's a near repeat on the Wednesday.

Yes and no real temperature rise implied by those charts. The general suggestion with 850s around zero is for a slow start to spring proper.

The overnight GEFS0z has a few blowtorch runs by early April. Worth keeping an eye to see whether that possibility is dropped or developed.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure to the West of Scotland will move slowly Southwest over the next 24 hours or so maintaining the slack Northerly flow across the UK backing more towards the NW over the North tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will fall a little over the next 24 hours or so especially across the North and East where the temperature will fall from close to 6000ft to a little under 5000ft by tomorrow. No snowfall is expected though across the UK over the next day or so.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly dry and cloudy at first then becoming very unsettled across the UK over Easter and the end of the month. Temperatures returning to near normal.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream remains blocked for a little longer until the High pressure block to the West of the UK collapses early next week with the Jet flow strengthening and realigning close to the South of the UK for the end of next week and week 2.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a much more mobile pattern developing as we move towards Easter and through the second week as Low pressure replaces High pressure up to the North and NW of the UK with rain at times for all in strong winds and average temperatures, the rain heaviest and most prolonged towards the North and West.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the operational with the fine period coming to an end early next week as Low pressure develops from the NW and replaces High pressure with spells of rain and showers for all with average temperatures and some March gales in places too at times as we reach towards the end of the month.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today though still somewhat mixed indicate an emphasis towards more unsettled based Atlantic driven weather as we end the month with rain at times for all.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning develops a much more mobile pattern as we move towards the Easter holiday with rain at times developing for all with time, last to reach the SE with temperatures close to average by then in a blustery Westerly flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure weakening over the coming days as it slips towards the SW next week with fronts approaching from the West heralding rain by the middle of the week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning winds up the Atlantic too next week as High pressure declines away to the SW early next week. This opens the door to the Atlantic Jet stream and Low pressure to enter UK airspace with spells of rain and gales especially over Easter itself equally possible for all areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM also indicates a change to unsettled and windy weather as we move through the middle of next week and then Easter as Low pressure deepens to the NW and moves closer in to Northern Britain with associated rain and SW gales affecting all areas at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning shows High pressure slipping away SW next week with pressure falling for all. Rain bearing fronts will affect the UK from midweek, most active in the North and West to begin with but with pressure falling steeply over Easter all areas will become decidedly unsettled with rain and strong winds at times in temperatures close to or a fraction below average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart shows the Jet Stream well South of the UK with Low pressure close to NW Britain. Cyclonic winds across the UK would ensure wet and windy conditions mixed with sunshine and showers the likely weather pattern in temperatures close to the late March average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is universal support now for the UK to enter a very unsettled spell for all areas by the Easter weekend.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.1 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 85.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.5 pts to 59.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has regained the lead from ECM with a score of 44.5 pts to 44.3 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS From a personal point of view I don't like the look of the charts this morning as I'm doing an outside event at a craft fair in a gazebo over the Easter weekend. Almost without exception the charts from all models show Easter as an unsettled and windy affair and a few charts suggest something potentially stormy possible with rain, heavy at times a very common feature of the holiday weekend. In the short term we have to see the demise of the large High pressure just to the west of Scotland currently and it will be another 4-5 days before it's influence to the UK is entirely lost. There will be some rain in the NW early in the week and this then slips South to all areas in time for Easter as winds back to a more Westerly point everywhere. Then it's just a matter of how unsettled it gets and most output suggests that it will become very unsettled and windy with rain at times and showers at others. While temperature values may indicate average levels it can only feel cold in the strength of the wind and when it's raining. Once we leave Easter the weather looks like maintaining a very unsettled picture as Low pressure is shown to maintain full control of the weather over the UK with rain at times and temperatures remaining close to average.. For those looking for a taste of Spring warmth this morning's output is not looking very hopeful but on the plus side the cold Northerly flow that was predicted for Easter over the UK within early this week's output appears dead in the water now with what we've got not un-seasonal and unusual shown for this time of year instead. 

Next Update Sunday March 20th 2016 from 09:00 

Here's a chart showing zonal winds at 10hPa at 60N. I've marked zero (the threshold for mean reversal) and the spring equinox. As can be seen, the zonal winds always reverse by the end of spring - and usually by the end of April.

It's relatively common for the final warming (which refers to the zonal winds remaining negative for the summer season) to take the form of a dramatic reversal.

As can be seen, this in no way gaurantees a cold spell for the UK when it happens, it's merely part of the transition to spring.

Thanks for that Darren but this event is an SSW not a final warming event as far as I am aware? So it is distinct from the latter which I assume is still to occur!

At one stage it was looking as though mean zonal 10hPa/60N winds would remain (barely) below zero, but in the past day or two that's changed - which yes, would mean this is a SSW rather than a final warming. It's unlikely the zonal winds will be able to recover too far though, as you can see from that chart once they dip below zero at this time of year they don't tend to go back into the 20s or higher.

It's interesting to note that the models still have difficulty with the stratosphere - but as ever, you notice it more when -5 becomes +10 than when +35 becomes +20!

ECM offers up a cool and showery long weekend for the north, while the south spends Saturday getting drenched before joining in with the north Sun-Mon.

 

Typical.

- and that's not all. The longer range iterations of the models have recently been quite keen on blocking W and NW of the UK for the first  
  week of April, and you can clearly see the progression toward that on this run, albeit not with great gusto.

It'd have to overcome the age-old rule that the weather should improve dramatically just as everyone goes back to work, but it does tie in with the stratospheric vortex split - which may still have at least a little impact despite the lack of a strong propagation down to the troposphere.

Does it though, or is that merely the impression we can sometimes get.... Or it could be that the UK's climate is just more inclined towards 'dreadful' weather (I.e zonal Atlantic driven storms are much, much more common than sub-zero easterlies).

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure to the West of Scotland with a ridge of High pressure over Scotland will slip South over the next 24 hours with the ridge across more Southern areas tomorrow and Tuesday with more of a Westerly flow across the North of the UK from then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain in the range of 4000-6000ft across the UK in the coming couple of days with no risk of snow anywhere in the UK through that period.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly dry and cloudy at first then becoming very unsettled across the UK over Easter and the end of the month. Temperatures returning to near normal.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is quite weak currently with the Southern arm the strongest portion of the flow at the moment well down across the Med and North Africa. This will weaken through the week as the northern arm strengthens somewhat over the Atlantic through this week steered North across the UK for the Easter period and remains blowing North or NE across the UK in the post Easter period until the end of the month. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a much more unsettled pattern developing for the UK as we move through this coming week as the High pressure to the West weakens away South and SE through the first half of this week. This backs winds off to a SW point with cloud and rain spreading SE across the UK soon after midweek and setting up a more changeable Easter Holiday with Low pressure to the NW of the UK well in control. It won't be raining all the time however and it may well be that some drier spells are possible in the South and East with the heaviest rain in the North and West while temperatures return to nearer the seasonal average for many. This pattern then persists for the remainder of the run taking us into early April.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the operational with the fine period coming to an end soon after midweek as a trough swings SE across the UK. This is then followed by a more mobile SW or South flow across the UK with rain and wind at times for all areas mixed with some shorter, drier and brighter spells with temperatures well up to the seasonal average for the remainder of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show an 80% bias towards Low pressure across the UK or just to the West with a cyclonic flow across all areas of Britain with rain at times for all in average late March-early April temperatures. just 20% indicate something a little drier under slacker pressure..

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a change on the way as High pressure slips away South and SE through the week. Troughs of low pressure affecting the North from Tuesday extend South soon after midweek opening the door to more unsettled and windy weather for Easter with rain or showers at times in a strong SW flow as Low pressure anchors out to the NW of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure weakening over the coming days as it slips towards the South next week with fronts moving across the UK from the West heralding rain by soon after the middle of the week heralding a more mobile Atlantic weather pattern.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning also shows a slow decline into more unsettled conditions under SW winds from midweek. However, it maybe that the worst of the conditions may hold off from the South and SE of the UK until later in the Easter weekend when all areas lie close to deep Low pressure with heavy rain and showers and blustery SW winds leading proceedings for all then out to the end of the month.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM also indicates a change to unsettled and windy weather as we move through the Easter period following an entrance into this more unsettled regime by a weakening cold front bringing the first rain for many soon after midweek. It maybe with low pressure held well to the NW that although windy the South and East may not see as much rain as points further North and West over Easter itself.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning once again shows the steady decline to Low pressure becoming influential to all of the UK. However, it takes a little time to do so and it will probably be Easter itself before the real unsettled weather takes hold across the far South with just patchy rain for a time soon after midweek opening the door to the West to more vigorous Low pressure and fronts later in the weekend. From then and into the post Easter period cyclonic conditions prevail with low pressure close to or over the UK delivering spells of rain and showers under temperatures no better than average for many.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart today shows Low pressure close to Scotland with the UK lying under a trough. the Jet stream is South of the UK with the likely weather across the UK being unsettled with rain at times for all under near to average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains universal support for the UK to enter a very unsettled spell for all areas over and beyond the Easter weekend

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.2 pts to UKMO at 89.2 pts and GFS at 85.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.0 pts to 59.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has the lead from ECM with a score of 44.7 pts to 44.6 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The models remain solid in support for a major change in weather type as we move towards the Easter weekend as for the first time for a couple of weeks Low pressure looks like regaining control over the UK under a SW flow. It maybe some time before the last influences of the ridge of High pressure finally gives ground sufficient to allow much in the way of rain to affect the SE of the UK but all areas should of seen a spell of rain at least by Good Friday. Following that SW winds look like strengthening markedly across the UK for all and this will allow temperatures to rise towards average at least though the effects of this will probably be lost on the strength of the wind and the fact that it will probably be raining for some of the time. Through Easter itself pressure will be falling across the UK and late in the holiday weekend and into the second week Low pressure looks likely either to be sitting over or close to the UK with bands of rain and showers with average Spring temperatures for many. Then if I was to take a stab at where we go weather-wise as we move into April I would suggest that on current evidence that further unsettled and Atlantic based weather looks likely to be the most likely weather type but with some pleasant drier periods under transient ridges allowing some Spring warmth to shine through at times. However, having said that it looks unlikely that any very warm or cold conditions notorious on occasions at this time of year looks likely given this morning's charts. 

Next Update Monday March 21st 2016 from 09:00

Thanks Martin - appreciated as always.

I'm more selective about posting lately because some people let wishful thinking get in the way of facts, but your concise summary is definitely something that makes this thread worthy of a visit.

Any sign of April showers on the horizon? I love the sharp demarcation we get in April between heavy showers and strong sunshine. The perfect conditions for rainbows to develop.

The outlook appears fairly typical for the time of year. Becoming unsettled through the Easter period but perhaps drier and warmer in early April.

Expect delays to the models tonight

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure ridge lies across the UK today. Over the next couple of days it weakens and declines away South as a Westerly flow develops across the UK by midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain in the range of 5000-6000ft across the UK in the coming couple of days with no risk of snow anywhere in the UK through that period.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more unsettled and breezy with rain at times for all in temperatures closer to average.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is quite weak currently. However the flow is strengthening across the other side of the Atlantic and this stronger surge will move across the Atlantic and the UK by the end of the week. Once here the flow backs Southerly and the UK lies in a trough in the flow for some while later in the weekend and next week as Low pressure lies close by to the UK. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a much more unsettled pattern developing for the UK as we move through the latter stages of this week as the current High pressure ridge collapses away South and a strengthening West or SW flow develops. Some wet and windy spells will then occur but with some drier and brighter spells in between with temperatures overall close to the seasonal normal. Later on in the second week the weather is shown to remain changeable for many with some chillier air lurking to the North and NE of the UK. 

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the operational with the fine period coming to an end soon after midweek as a trough swings East across the UK. This is then followed by a more mobile SW or South flow across the UK with rain and wind at times for all areas mixed with some shorter, drier and brighter spells with temperatures well up to the seasonal average before a shift towards colder weather takes shape towards the end of the second week as Low pressure takes a more Southerly track and cold High pressure builds to the North leading us into a cold and showery start to April in Easterly winds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today continue to project Low pressure in control of the UK weather, most likely positioned just to the West or NW with just a 20% pack reversing this theme having Low pressure to the South similar to that of the Control Run.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning continues to project a major pattern change in the weather towards the second half of this week, deteriorating further through Easter. So a few more days of fine and benign conditions are shown before troughs cross West to East over the UK towards Easter in turn followed by a dip into deeply unsettled conditions later in the holiday weekend with heavy rain or showers at times for all in close to average temperatures at best.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the raw data well today illustrating the decline of a High pressure ridge over the coming days towards a theme of a trough moving across the UK from the West on Thursday with some rain for all for a time.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning looks very unsettled from the end of the month with Westerly winds and rain at times the likely scenario under Low pressure lying close by to the North. It won't be raining all the time and some brighter spells will occur between the rain-bands in temperatures close to average but feeling cool at times in the strength of the wind.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM also indicates a change to unsettled and windy weather as we move through the Easter period following an entrance into this more unsettled regime by a weakening cold front bringing the first rain for many on Thursday. Low pressure to the NW over Easter maintains the risk of rain at times for all areas with some brighter intervals at times too in often windy conditions in temperatures close to average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning maintains it's theme of a dip into a deeply unsettled spells over the Easter weekend and through next week. Over the next few days though benign conditions remain with the first rain for the South not expected until Thursday with a decent day for some on Good Friday. It's from Saturday on that the charts show a wetter and windier period with spells of rain followed by heavy showers for all in temperatures near to or a fraction below average with time

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart today has offered another chart showing a very unsettled spell of weather coming up with Low pressure well in control to the NW of the UK with spells of rain and SW winds across the UK towards the middle and end of the next working week. With SW winds predominating it is unlikely to be cold anywhere with temperatures more likely to be close to average offset by the conditions at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains universal support for the UK to enter a very unsettled spell for all areas over and beyond the Easter weekend

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.2 pts to UKMO at 89.2 pts and GFS at 85.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.1 pts to 58.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has the lead from ECM with a score of 45.5 pts to 44.9 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS No change in the unity between the models in their underlying campaign to push the UK into an unsettled and windy spell of weather from the Easter weekend onward. There are still a few more days of benign conditions expected across the UK before changes begin to take shape in the form of a cold front crossing East on Thursday which will be the first appreciable rain for many for well over a week. Then Good Friday looks as though it maybe OK for many as a transient ridge moves East across the UK but hard on it's heels will be falling pressure as Low pressure over the North Atlantic deepens and moves in closer to the North of the UK. Westerly winds will then carry spells of rain and showers across the UK through the remainder of the long weekend and well into the second week. While temperatures will be close to average with wind and rain around it will feel chilly but OK in any brief brighter intervals, of which there will be some. Then as we look towards the outer reaches of this morning's output High pressure looks like it might be trying to build again to the North of the UK and if this develops further cold weather could be a theme of April with a traditional mix of sunshine and heavy, possibly wintry showers with more importantly frosts at night which is not good news of course for farmers and growers. That's all of course a long way off but it is a recurring theme between outputs at the moment so worthy of mention. So while nothing unusual for the time of year is shown this morning there is no evidence of Spring warmth of note either and it maybe we have to put up with standard Spring unsettled weather for quite a while before some more sedate and warm Spring weather arrives within the models hopefully quite soon. 

Next Update Tuesday March 22nd 2016 from 09:00

Looks set to be rather on the stormy side at around the 28th if a couple of models are anything to go by on (ECM and GEM), GFS shows a more toned done affair, though.
  Of course, it is still a long way off in forecasting terms, especially as it's beyond UKMO's range so there are some leg room for further fine tunings/upgrade/downgrades, etc, etc.

GFS is by far the odd one out in having the secondary low slower moving and missing the opportunity to engage with a strong section of the jet stream.

That'd be a wild follow-up to Easter Sunday. I reckon UKMO would have similar timing and intensity, while GEM is a day later but just as vicious (http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gem/177_mslp500.png?cb=108).

Longer-term, suggestions the pattern as a whole may retrograde at least a little, while also tending to amplify with a more meridional jet behaviour. That could mean height rises across Europe for a time but there is also the threat of height rises across Greenland. Indeed it could well be that we see one then the other... but of course this is pure speculation at this point in time.

The far end of the GFS op this morning is fascinating. It's all too little too early I'm afraid as  those synoptics in August would deliver an extreme nationwide heatwave.

😂😂😂🙄

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure ridge lies across Southern UK today. Over the next couple of days it weakens and declines away South as a Westerly flow develops across the UK with troughs swinging East on Thursday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain in the range of 5000-7000ft across the UK in the coming couple of days with no risk of snow anywhere in the UK through that period.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming more unsettled and breezy with rain at times for all in temperatures closer to average.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will strengthen in the coming days with the flow moving NE across the UK by the weekend. This general theme of movement of the flow will be the main theme of the flow next week before the flow breaks up and becomes much more ill defined in both speed and location in the second week. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a much more unsettled pattern developing for the UK as we move through the latter stages of this week and over the Holiday weekend. So some useful rainfall will fall for many with unfortunate timing for the holiday weekend but with some drier spells too once troughs pass East. Then from later next week dry and fine weather looks like returning with temperatures on the decline again leading to a cold and potentially showery spell especially over England and Wales as Low pressure to the South and High pressure to the North sets up cold Easterly winds for many.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows changeable conditions developing from Thursday as troughs and then Low pressure move into the UK from off the Atlantic in time for the Holiday weekend. Then with this unsettled and sometimes windy theme lasting for a week or so the theme towards drier and colder air engulfing the UK again is shown although less prolific than with the Operational.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today have switched to a much more settled picture as High pressure takes up a more prominent role over the UK position unclear. Just 35% of Clusters indicate Low pressure in control today with rain at times in places.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a steady dip into much more unsettled weather after tomorrow as troughs move East on Thursday and more extensively from Easter Saturday with rain at times thereon with the UK shown to lie on the Eastern side of deep Low pressure just West of the UK with a Southerly flow for many early next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the slow decline into more changeable conditions across the UK as pressure steadily falls later this week and over the weekend with a succession of troughs delivering rain but with some brighter spells in between especially over Good Friday.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning looks very unsettled from the end of this week as Low pressure across the Atlantic makes much more progress into the UK following some rain on a trough on Thursday. Next week looks distinctly unsettled as Low pressure is shown to sit over the top of the UK filling slowly but maintaining rain and showers across the UK for all of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM also indicates a change to unsettled and windy weather as we move through the Easter period following an entrance into this more unsettled regime by a weakening cold front bringing the first rain for many on Thursday. Low pressure to the West or NW over Easter and beyond maintains the risk of rain at times for all areas with some brighter intervals at times too in often windy conditions in temperatures close to average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning is looking distinctly unsettled once the shift towards these type of conditions arrive at the start of Saturday. following a decent day on Good Friday and a band of rain on Thursday. Low pressure then settles across or near the UK for all of next week with rain and showers expected for all at times with some notable strong winds on occasion too and temperatures close to the seasonal average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart today has offered another chart showing a very unsettled spell of weather coming up with Low pressure well in control to the NW of the UK with spells of rain and SW winds across the UK towards the middle and end of the next working week. With SW winds predominating it is unlikely to be cold anywhere with temperatures more likely to be close to average offset by the conditions at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains universal support for the UK to enter a very unsettled spell for all areas over and beyond the Easter weekend.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.1 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 86.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.9 pts to 58.8 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 45.2 pts to 44.3 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS A period of wet and windy weather is on course to reach the UK on Saturday and continue off and on for the rest of the period. In the shorter term we still have to remove the fine and benign weather conditions that the UK have been under for some time as the High responsible declines away SE and allows the winds to switch to a Westerly source with the first trough crossing East over the UK on Thursday. Good Friday doesn't look too bad as a transient ridge moves across before falling pressure brings a sustained period of wet and at times windy conditions lasting over the second half of Easter and the period thereafter too. Then while most outputs maintain the unsettled theme right out to the term of the runs with Low pressure maintained over or near the UK GFS has moved towards a spell of Northern blocking later in the period with winds switching Easterly with Low pressure to the South and cold and showery weather most likely should the weather take this route. However, this is just one option that might develop and it is just GFS that shows it and it maybe that the more unsettled period under UK based Low pressure might be more likely. So in summary a spell of wind and rain mixed with sunshine and showers is the theme of weather over the next few weeks with no real guaranteed settled and spring-like conditions on offer this morning.

Next Update Wednesday March 23rd 2016 from 09:00

Or in January a nationwide freeze

It's an interesting end to the run I guess - thankfully unlikely to come off as it'd be cold and miserable for some/most (although good for snow in the Scottish ski centres).

All looking a bit ho-hum in the reliable, which I guess is reflected in the rather quiet nature of this thread atm. There's a glimmer of some warmer stuff in deep FI on the ens, but average and a bit more unsettled is the near term theme.