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Quantum
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Thursday, April 7, 2016 12:08:13 PM

Late to have this thread, but there is a snow risk on Saturday. This is the situation.


snowrisk


An occluded front initially crosses the country bringing rain. Behind the occluded front cold and extremely unstable air moves through. There are likely to be thunderstorms in Ireland and the south west as strong convection is sparked off by solar heating. In these showers, some of which are likely to merge it will briefly be cold enough for snow at lower levels; I think this will be aided by the opening of the isobars; there is no wind to speak of to prevent evaporative cooling turning the showers to snow for a time. For a time the humidity will drop to about 50%; low humidity environments are very generous towards turning the precipitation to the side of wintry.


As it stands the areas at the biggest risk of seeing snow are Ireland and SW England; areas that typically do not see all that much snow so I suspect if it comes off a few heads will be turned.


By Sunday it will be too mild for any snow to fall at lower levels, so this is a brief window but there is the possibility of a NNErly later next week which could bring cold air back to our shores.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
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Thursday, April 7, 2016 3:11:10 PM

Also, (and thanks GW for helping me with the ice day thread) the latest ice day on record that can be fully verified is 16th April 1966. IF this comes off:



Then there would lie a band of snow across central parts of scotland; with such cold uppers this is about as good as a scenario as you can get for an ice day at this time of year.


Two spoilers though; its at +198 hours and its 1 day too early to break the record 


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
AIMSIR
Thursday, April 7, 2016 3:35:40 PM

Could be an interesting little interlude. Q.
I'll be keeping an eye on this one.


528 DAM is forcasted well over Ireland on Saturday.


https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/fax/20160407.0517.PPVI89.png


 


The 850 in combination looks good also.


http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20160407/06/57/h850t850eu.png


 


I doubt if there will be lying snow for any time at low levels but this could be our last chance for a brief look.

Chunky Pea
Thursday, April 7, 2016 4:16:06 PM


Behind the occluded front cold and extremely unstable air moves through. There are likely to be thunderstorms in Ireland and the south west as strong convection is sparked off by solar heating.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Keeping an eye on this myself. Thinking that under the slack low and a generally SW gradient (backing more S later) that a possible convergence zone may develop over the central or eastern third of Ireland, which is not good for me  but shall be interesting to see what happens regardless as the last 12 months have been shockingly bad for thunderstorms in this part of the world.


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Quantum
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Thursday, April 7, 2016 4:19:13 PM


Could be an interesting little interlude. Q.
I'll be keeping an eye on this one.


528 DAM is forcasted well over Ireland on Saturday.


https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/fax/20160407.0517.PPVI89.png


 


The 850 in combination looks good also.


http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20160407/06/57/h850t850eu.png


 


I doubt if there will be lying snow for any time at low levels but this could be our last chance for a brief look.


Originally Posted by: AIMSIR 


EURO4 is going for a few cms in the SW corner of Ireland. The key is the timing; snow can settle even at this time of year provided it happens early. Nothing will settle after 10am or before 7pm.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Chunky Pea
Thursday, April 7, 2016 4:33:25 PM


 


EURO4 is going for a few cms in the SW corner of Ireland. The key is the timing; snow can settle even at this time of year provided it happens early. Nothing will settle after 10am or before 7pm.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


The SW of Ireland is largely mountainous country in fairness. Snow at this time of year on the hills is not that unusual. I think any snow at lower levels will be scant at best.


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Quantum
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Thursday, April 7, 2016 5:49:11 PM


 


The SW of Ireland is largely mountainous country in fairness. Snow at this time of year on the hills is not that unusual. I think any snow at lower levels will be scant at best.


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


My bet is that somewhere will be suprised this weekend. Heres a JFF WRF chart.



2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
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Thursday, April 7, 2016 9:18:17 PM

Look how open the isobars are on the ECMWF



I'd be amazed if somewhere doesn't see snow (to lower levels) on Saturday; in fact if a line of thunderstorms develops in S Ireland for example it could drop some impressive tempory acccumulations.


There is also a subtle difference with the occluded front; the cold air seems to be undercutting better; so western scotland also looks like it could see snow. 


 


If I had to guess I'd rank these regions from highest to lowest risk of seeing snow:


S Ireland


N Ireland


W Scotland


SW England


Wales


NW England


Everywhere else


 


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
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Friday, April 8, 2016 3:36:24 PM

EURO4 going for a smattering of heavy showers with snow in the heaviest bursts for even Southern England.


Rain/Snowfall EURO4 Sa 09.04.2016 18 GMT


But from my experience of all the short term models we have access to the EURO4 underestimates snow more than any other model. 


Really confident some places will see snow tommorow especially Ireland, N Ireland, Wales and W scotland.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
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Friday, April 8, 2016 3:38:26 PM

The WRF which personally I rate higher than EURO4



Really could be quite exciting for some; dramatic showers of heavy rain, hail, sleet, snow with thunder at times!


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
idj20
Friday, April 8, 2016 3:54:25 PM


The WRF which personally I rate higher than EURO4



Really could be quite exciting for some; dramatic showers of heavy rain, hail, sleet, snow with thunder at times!


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 



As well as showing how the Kent Rain Deflector being as efficient as ever. Such showers do tend to do that bypassing to my north west thing at this end under a south west wind and I end up with the best of the sunshine and I think this one won't be any different.

Anyway, I just want things to warm up now so that I can wear shorts & T shirt indoors and outdoors! Hopefully that may start to be the case as we go into next week but 1) it's a long way off in forecasting terms and 2) it's a different matter altogether in any case.


Folkestone Harbour. 
NickR
Saturday, April 9, 2016 7:53:38 AM

Radar currently has snow over much of upland southern wales, the highlands, and higher parts of somerset.


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Quantum
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Saturday, April 9, 2016 9:55:31 AM

official snow reports in:


Sennybridge (Wales), 307m


Tulloch Bridge (W Scotland), 237m 


Aberporth (Wales), 133m


Gurteen (Ireland), 75m


Kerry airport (Ireland), 34m


Shannon Airport (Ireland), 6m


 


So snow has fallen to lower levels; as expected Ireland bears the brunt.


 


Update: Snow reported in Aberporth


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
ARTzeman
Saturday, April 9, 2016 11:27:34 AM

Wintry shower of rain with sleet her in Peasedown St John. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
AIMSIR
Saturday, April 9, 2016 2:01:55 PM

Interesting to see the dew point in Dublin drop from 0C to -2C over the past hour.
However there are no signs of wintery precipitation reported further west or north.or anywhere.
I don't think we are in for anything too spectacular.
Looked great on the forecast earlier in the week.
I'll keep you posted if there are any noteworthy changes.

idj20
Saturday, April 9, 2016 2:14:40 PM

Dull with cold rain for most of today so far at this end.

Much like the kind of thing I get to have most winters, then. 


Folkestone Harbour. 
Brendon Hills Bandit
Saturday, April 9, 2016 2:21:46 PM
Here it has been almost snowing today, showers of hail just about transitioning to snow, not that exciting, but still fairly notable for this time of year in the SW (albeit on high ground).
220m asl, edge of Brendon Hills
JimC
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Saturday, April 9, 2016 2:39:39 PM

Hail and sleet coming home from Warminster some places a white smattering of hail. temps 3.3C and feeling it.

Quantum
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Saturday, April 9, 2016 3:00:31 PM


Interesting to see the dew point in Dublin drop from 0C to -2C over the past hour.
However there are no signs of wintery precipitation reported further west or north.or anywhere.
I don't think we are in for anything too spectacular.
Looked great on the forecast earlier in the week.
I'll keep you posted if there are any noteworthy changes.


Originally Posted by: AIMSIR 


AIMSIR; these are the list of official weather stations that have seen snow today! Most of it was, to be fair, very early this morning. But there has been snow to lower levels; quite widespread in Southern Ireland.


 


official snow reports in:


Sennybridge (Wales), 307m


Tulloch Bridge (W Scotland), 237m 


Aberporth (Wales), 133m


Gurteen (Ireland), 75m


Kerry airport (Ireland), 34m


Shannon Airport (Ireland), 6m


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
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Saturday, April 9, 2016 3:05:45 PM

Does anyone live in the NW; I'd watch out for some snow tonight in the liverpool area.


Snow on the cards tommorow for southern ireland again.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
KevBrads1
Saturday, April 9, 2016 3:36:43 PM


Does anyone live in the NW; I'd watch out for some snow tonight in the liverpool area.


Snow on the cards tommorow for southern ireland again.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I'd live in the NW but it looks a mostly dry and frosty night to me.


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
snow 2004
Saturday, April 9, 2016 3:50:02 PM
Down in Greater Mancheser at the moment. Cold rain falling but you can see the snow shafts in the sky.

Driving back up to Glossop soon. Maybe some sleetiness up there.
Glossop Derbyshire, 200m asl
Quantum
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Saturday, April 9, 2016 3:56:19 PM

Down in Greater Mancheser at the moment. Cold rain falling but you can see the snow shafts in the sky.

Driving back up to Glossop soon. Maybe some sleetiness up there.

Originally Posted by: snow 2004 


Seems most of the melting is occuring in the boundry layer; it means that it may turn to snow rapidally when the sun goes down.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
ARTzeman
Saturday, April 9, 2016 4:10:40 PM

Here it has been almost snowing today, showers of hail just about transitioning to snow, not that exciting, but still fairly notable for this time of year in the SW (albeit on high ground).

Originally Posted by: Brendon Hills Bandit 


 


Had the same here in Peasedown St john travelling to Radstock and on to Midsomer Norton.   Had to go to Argos for a new coffee machine. Well worth the battle against the elements.


 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
chiversa
Saturday, April 9, 2016 4:22:33 PM
fairly hefty shower of soft hail as i drve into Winchester but I guess nothing unusual for this time of year. temperature fell from 10 deg c to 6 deg c in the heavier burst but bounced back up to 8 degc as the sun came out .
Alan

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