The five strongest El Ninos since WWII before 2015-16 were 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83 and 1997-98

The CETs for the Aprils that followed these El Nino events

1958: 7.4

1966: 7.2

1973: 7.0

1983: 6.8

1998: 7.7

Will this April go down the same route?

As Tim S suggests, a pattern change of some sort looks possible during the opening week of April, with pressure falling to our south and over the NW continent in general. A lot of warm uppers in the mix but how this would transpire into conditions on the ground should it pan out like this remains to be seen.

Hmmm - so its not looking like a very mild April . Indeed the contrary.

I would be happy with 1983 and what came later!

Looks like it has struck again.

I wonder how many who made predictions for this April's CET took this on board?

I'm more interested now in what the following summers and winters were like 😏

I know I did.

May 1998 was warm, May 1983 was chilly, the others were nothing special.

Something to look at the next time we have a strong El Niño 

Strong El Niños and the following Aprils

1958: 7.4

1966: 7.2

1973: 7.0

1983: 6.8

1998: 7.7

2016: 7.5

The question for me is why? A statistical quirk? The Marches and Mays of those years were a mixture.

That's quite a statistical series - even if not sufficient in number, the correlation is fascinating.

Wish I'd have taken notice of it before my monthly CET guess

When is the next strong El Nino due??

Just before the next cool April...

I think there may be something in it. A few months after an El Nino event (ie Spring) North Atlantic SSTs often become anomalously warm. To get warm SSTs in this region you need persistant southerlies over this basin.

The consequence of that? The UK can be on the wrong side and be influenced by a higher then normal amount of northerly days.

Seems to have been something that has occurred this year.

During May north-easterlies can be very warm under the right synoptics so its not something that is clear cut.