GFS seem to have got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning looking at the latter end of the 06z run. Of course, it is only one output, one morning, etc and all that jazz.  At least ECM is trying its best to soothe our furrowed foreheads.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure to the South of the UK will push troughs North across Southern Britain over the next 48 hours in an Easterly flow which will be maintained for many for several days before backing NE later in the week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK continues to see the freezing level across the UK range between 8000-10000ft over the following three or four days with a steady fall off of values later in the week from the North and NE.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming cooler and drier from the weekend especially in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream's main core is situated well South of the UK near Southern Spain and North Africa in association with a large depression down there. This remains for some while this week before weakening by the weekend as the Low pressure down there moves slowly away ENE over mainland Europe. A weak flow then runs South just to the East of the UK next weekend before in the second week the flow rejuvenates moving Eastwards just South of the UK again with Low pressure close by to the British Isles.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure down to the South moving slowly ENE later this week with the South seeing a lot of heavy showers or longer outbreaks of rain on most days. Higher pressure in the North will maintain drier conditions for the most part and with the air inherently mild it should feel warm in the sun. Later in the week the winds will back Northerly for all and it will be cooler but drier for all next weekend. Then in the second week Low pressure is shown to feed in from the North and West with cyclonic winds countrywide then through Week 2 with rain at times in average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN The Parallel Run this morning shows Week 1 the same as the Operational with a trend towards cooler and drier weather last to reach the South by next weekend. Then the drier weekend follows on to a better week of weather than the Operational shows as High pressure to the South keeps those areas largely dry with some rain from Atlantic fronts further to the North. However, the run does show all areas becoming more unsettled in cyclonic conditions by the end of the run.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&runpara=1 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&runpara=1 

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run looks more like the Operational Run rather than the Parallel Run with an unsettled and cyclonic pattern through the second week too with the same sequence of events through this week leading to an interlude of drier, cooler conditions over the weekend under a brief Northerly flow.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today for day 14 continues to show no definitive patterning at that time showing instead a slight bias towards lower pressure giving rise to rain at times but also plenty of better options under higher pressure patterns as well.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows the slow transition towards drier and cooler conditions moving down from the North by the weekend as the Low to the South currently takes away the risk of thundery showers or rain by the weekend with a fairly decent if cooler weekend for all looking likely as a weak ridge moves East across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show quite a complex scenario of troughs across Southern Britain for all of this working week as they move North at times in the next few days and then slowly away South towards the end of the week as the warmth of recent days is gradually squeezed out under cooler Northerly winds by the weekend flooding South.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning shows the same thundery Low pressure to the South moving away ENE across Europe later in the week backing the winds towards the North and introducing cooler and fresher conditions in time for the weekend. The rain and showers in the South through this week reduce later with a dry weekend looking likely for many as something of a ridge crosses East. Then as we move through the start of next week a Westerly flow is shown to develop with rain returning on Atlantic troughs, this time heaviest in the North and West and driest towards the SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a showery week to come in the South and fair weather in the North as the Low to the South takes until the weekend to move away far enough to lose it's grip over the UK. Then the weekend looks set fair as the cooler Northerly develops ahead of a ridge making the weekend a decent if cooler one for many with perhaps some rain on Atlantic troughs reaching the NW soon after the start of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today also shows High pressure inching in from the West next weekend and into the second week but it still looks a painfully slow task and although all parts should see a lot of fair and dry weather in cooler air than of late across the UK next weekend it's longer term survival looks fraught as we move into next week with Low pressure from both the NW and SE squeezing the life out of a ridge over the UK and possibly re-introducing showery rain late in the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) Last nights 10 day Mean Chart is showing a trend towards a return to a more traditional Low to the North and High to the South pattern but there are many other options shown within members too with the chart as a result much less reliably accurate than usual.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme is for cooler and drier conditions to move across the UK under a ridge next weekend with a lot of indecision still on the longer term prospects.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.0 pts to UKMO's 96.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.2 pts to UKMO at 86.6pts and GFS at 83.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.0 pts to 51.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.2 pts to 36.5 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  There is some coming together of the models in the theme that covers this week's weather and now the weekend's too as the demise of the thundery Low to the South later this week has been agreed upon as well as the weak ridge of High pressure across the UK next weekend with fine and cooler conditions looking more likely next weekend now rather than anything else. Through this week there will be a fair amount of showers and heavy rain across the South especially tomorrow before the winds begin to back NE after midweek and pulls cooler air down from the North by the weekend. It now looks that the worst of this cold plunge will be to the east of the UK with the British isles having a quiet and dry weekend with some chilly night but some decent daytime weather when temperatures should reach average levels. As we look towards the second week things are less clear cut with GFS looking quite unsettled again across the UK with Low pressure close by bringing rain at times for all although the New Parallel Run is somewhat less supportive of this with the Clusters offering no clear patterning either at the 14 day time point. ECM shows the road towards a more traditional NW/SE pattern at the end of its run with some rain developing across the NW while the South and East sees something rather brighter, dry and warmer weather although the day 10 chart itself is a little less supportive of this pattern. So as you can tell from a reliably accurate prediction of this weeks likely conditions confidence falls away rapidly for next week and I feel we need a few more days runs yet before conditions predicted for next week can be accurately foreseen.

Next Update Tuesday May 10th 2016 from 09:00

Sorry guys, I can't be kept away!

6Z goes for a shot of cold air initially, then a rather more impressive reload. Really the pattern is similar to a few weeks ago. I'd expect to see wintry showers in the far north. At this time of year the heating of the boundry layer makes snow difficult during the day, and annoyingly the convection being solar rather than lake at this time of year makes it hard to get it at night. Evening then is the best bet, boundry layer has cooled off but there are still showers about. I'd love to bear my personal 5th May record for snow in the UK. 

Interesting read about mid-long range forecasting

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2016/new-weather-patterns-for-uk-and-europe 

In the short term scattered storms/showers moving north this evening.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/05/09/basis00/ukuk/prec/16050921_0900.gif 

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome/runs/2016050906/aromehd-1-13-0.png?09-12 

And thundery rain? tomorrow

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/runs/2016050900/arpegeuk-1-36-0.png?09-06  

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure to the South of the UK with associated troughs straddling Southern Britain will continue to bring outbreaks of rain across Southern Britain while the North remains largely dry and fine in an Easterly flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK continues to see the freezing level across the UK at around 8000ft where it will remain for the next few days. Then towards the weekend the level will fall to around 4000-5000ft from the North and NE.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming cooler and dry for a time then dry and bright in the South with some rain at times across the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream's main core is situated well South of the UK near Southern Spain and North Africa in association with a large depression down there. This remains for several more days before it weakens and as far as the UK is concerned a spore of Jet flow energy moves South down over us from the weaker Northern arm towards the weekend. This Southward moving energy lies on the eastern flank of a weakening ridge across the Eastern Atlantic and is eventually superseded by a new lease of energy from the Southern arm which then sets up a more West to East flow across the UK in the second week in association with Low pressure to the North.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure down to the South moving slowly ENE later this week with the South seeing a lot of heavy showers or longer outbreaks of rain for a few more days. Then the trend is for winds to back towards the North with cooler and fresher conditions extending South to all areas by the weekend. Winds then continue to back off towards the West and SW by this time next week and this sets up a more traditional Atlantic based cyclonic pattern next week and through to the end of the run with Low pressure in close proximity to the UK with rain and showers at times in average temperatures for all areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN The Parallel Run this morning shows Week 1 the same as the Operational with a trend towards cooler and drier weather last to reach the South by the weekend. Then the second half of the run is rather different to the Operational again with the return of more unsettled Atlantic based winds eventually more restricted to the NW where rain and showers continue while the South and East sees plenty of drier and warmer weather for a lot of the time in association with higher pressure across France and later to the West and SW.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&runpara=1 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&runpara=1 

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run looks more like the Operational Run rather than the Parallel Run again today in regard to Week 2 with a changeable pattern for all areas with rain at times as Atlantic winds and depressions slowly take hold for most of the UK again through the second week but also mixed in with some drier and brighter spells in average temperatures overall.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today for day 14 shows a lot of High pressure near the UK in 14 days probably positioned down to the SW of the UK with a strong ridge NE across the UK. There are still some members who prefer something a little more cyclonic themed but these are in a decreasing amount today.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning continues to show the slow transition towards drier and cooler conditions moving down from the North by the weekend as the Low to the South currently takes away the risk of thundery showers or rain by the weekend with a fairly decent if cooler weekend for all looking likely as a weakening ridge moves East towards the UK but there looks as though there is still the risk of the odd shower towards the East coast.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show quite a complex scenario of troughs across Southern Britain for the rest of the working week with thundery showers and outbreaks of rain scattered about here in light winds. Then as winds back towards the North and strengthen by the weekend the troughs are swept away South and SW with a cooler, fresher and drier weekend looking likely for all as a ridge of High pressure pushes in towards the West.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning shows the same thundery Low pressure to the South moving away ENE across Europe later in the week backing the winds towards the North and introducing cooler and fresher conditions in time for the weekend. By that time a High pressure ridge approaches the West and sinks SE to lie to the South of the UK next week backing winds towards the West and SW. Low pressure to the North then brings changeable conditions over the North with some rain at times from passing Atlantic fronts while Southern and SE Britain becomes largely dry, bright and warm in association with High pressure just to the South of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM has cooler weather on the way by the weekend as the winds back Northerly for a time. A ridge close to the West of the UK over the weekend should bring dry and bright if cooler weather for many before some showers affect the North and East by this time next week as winds back WNW with High pressure a little too far away to the SW to fully affect the UK. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today follows the theme shown by the GFS Parallel Run, their clustering and GEM with the Northerly at the weekend backing SW'ly next week with a NW/SE pattern developing with wind, rain at times and average temperatures affecting the NW while the further SE one travels down over the UK the weather will be drier, brighter and warmer especially in the SE itself where it could be rather warm at times later next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) Last nights 10 day Mean Chart is showing a trend towards a return to a more traditional Low to the North and High to the South pattern with rain at times more likely over the North with drier, brighter and warmer spells more likely across the South and SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme is for cooler and drier conditions to move across the UK under a ridge next weekend with a gradual shift now in more runs showing a NW/SE split in weather conditions likely over the second half of the two week period.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.1 pts to UKMO's 96.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.5 pts to UKMO at 86.8pts and GFS at 83.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.5 pts to 51.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.7 pts to 37.0 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The output today continues to predict a slow shift away from this pattern of Low pressure to the South and Higher pressure to the North currently to the reverse next week. The transition period is over the weekend as the current very showery and humid air across the South of the UK is pushed away South by backing Easterly winds towards the North by the weekend bringing cooler and fresher conditions to all parts but with pleasant enough conditions with sunny spells at times. Then as we move into next week and beyond winds back towards the West and SW with Low pressure becoming more dominant towards the North or NW of the UK with the ridge to the SW extending across France later. This will probably mean after the recent dry and very warm conditions over the North and NW more conventional conditions will develop in these parts with rain and wind at times on Atlantic winds and nearer to average temperatures. In the South conditions will improve. Gone will be the risk of thundery rain and showers and as winds back towards the West and SW a lot of dry and relatively warm weather develops close to High pressure likely over Biscay and France by then. So that is the basic and most popular consensus between the outputs this morning with variations to this theme governed only by more extent of Northern Low pressure with rain for all at times rather than a North/South split. So all in all nothing too concerning on the horizon this morning and it maybe that the South with time become quite pleasant through next week with just very occasional rain whereas the North see more changeable conditions, something that is quite normal for these parts. While no heatwave is shown this morning the colder blip at the weekend looks just that with frost with the exception of Saturday night looking unlikely except in the most prone spots.

Next Update Wednesday May 11th 2016 from 09:00

It does look like the synoptics are likely to be "resetting to default" mode as we go into next week, although GFS seems to be in a grumpy mood today.

Yeah, me too. 'Default' westerlies is just

I suspect a summer of everything in it knowing the British climate.

Terry Scholey seems to think so anyway for the coming summer ahead.

This is looking very interesting. The initial burst of cold air may only be enough to give wintry showers on higher ground, however the GFS still tentatively offers a possibility of a reload.

So there is a possibility of snow in Northern scotland to lower levels if it comes off. 

A settled start to next week form UKMO

This chart looks exciting until you realise the blue is -5°c 850mb and not -10°c 850s that you get used to in the GFS for example. Surely those temps will get modified over land now more easily than in the late winter. Having said that, the ensembles give Inverness some snow row action.

you are 100 percent correct. In fact it is only when you have something planned that you realise just how poor the models and forecasts actually are, for like you I had something planned this morning and every forecast I watched, up until 12 hours ago gave me a dry morning today and wet on Monday/Tuesday ....in fact Monday/Tuesday were dry...today it looks like several hours of heavy rain....very poor indeed!

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure to the South of the UK with associated troughs remain straddled across Southern Britain. Over the next few days a NE and then Northerly flow develops across all areas pushing troughs away South and introducing much cooler and fresher air to all areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK continues to see the freezing level across the UK at around 8000ft but this will be relatively short-lived from tomorrow as colder uppers lower the level to around 3000-5000ft East to West by and over the weekend.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming cooler and dry for a time then dry and bright in the South with some rain at times across the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream's main core is situated well South of the UK near Southern Spain and North Africa in association with a large depression down there. This becomes replaced by a weak Southward moving flow across the UK at the weekend a band of winds which move East by early next week with a more undulating pattern of the flow North and South of the UK in the period from the latter end of next week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows very changeable conditions across the UK over the next few weeks. The current warm and unsettled conditions across the South are swept away by a chillier Northerly flow over the weekend before milder Atlantic and cyclonic winds are shown to develop next week with some rain at times for all. With time warmer and brighter conditions are shown to affect the South with an extension of this to all areas later as pressure builds strongly across the UK with conditions turning warm again later in the period under High pressure to the NE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN The Parallel Run this morning shows a very similar sequence of events across the UK over the next few weeks to that shown by the Operational above with the general message that after a cooler and dry weekend more unsettled weather returns next week to be gradually pulled away by rising pressure with the run ending with High pressure across the UK and Scandinavia with all places dry, sunny and potentially very warm for many.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&runpara=1 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&runpara=1 

GFS CONTROL RUN To complete the set from GFS this run follows a similar path to the above although the end part of the run shows slacker pressure across the UK with perhaps some showers about especially in the South with temperatures somewhat lower as a result.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today for day 14 shows a lot of High pressure probably close to the SW or west of the UK with a lot of dry and set fair weather as a result. There is though a notable cluster amounting to 20% or so of much more unsettled conditions under low pressure up to the NW and a lesser number with Low pressure to the NE with a cool NW flow. (20%)

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning continues to show a ridge of High pressure building across the British Isles over the weekend with a slack NW flow likely, cooler than of late for all but containing a lot of dry weather with just the odd shower near North and East coasts but with a fair amount of daytime cloud cover with this setup lasting well into next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the current warm and muggy slack flow across the UK becoming displaced by a chillier Northerly flow by the weekend pushing troughs over the South in the next few days away to the South. With High pressure then shown just to the West over the weekend and start to next week a lot of dry and bright weather is expected with the risk of a shower still across the North and East.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM The theme of GEM this morning is one of rising pressure displacing the warm and humid and unsettled conditions across the South of the UK over the next few days. Pressure then stays largely High to the SW and later South with the cool North or NW flow backing West or SW through next week with Northern and Western areas coming under from from Atlantic troughs while the South and East closest to higher pressure over the near continent sees more in the way of dry and warming weather.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM has cooler weather on the way by the weekend too as the winds back Northerly for a time. A ridge close to the West of the UK over the weekend should bring dry and bright if cooler weather for many and as winds back Westerly next week the theme is for more unsettled conditions across the North and West while fine conditions are more likely to last longer in the South and East although even here some rain is shown to affect these parts a week or so from now. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today shows the continuing theme of the pattern resetting to a more traditional UK type by the start of next week. The current unsettled and muggy Easterly flow across the South is displaced by higher pressure moving in from the West and SW over the weekend with dry and cooler weather feeding down on a weak Northerly flow over the weekend. This then backs westerly early next week and the theme settles to Low pressure to the North and Higher pressure to the South with a strengthening WSW flow affecting all areas by midweek next week with some rain at times possible for all but chiefly for the North and West while the South and SE see drier, brighter and warmer spells too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) Last nights 10 day Mean Chart is showing a trend towards a return to a more traditional Low to the Northwest and High to the South pattern with rain at times more likely over the North with drier, brighter and warmer spells more likely across the South and SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS As yesterday the main emphasis shown by the models continues to point towards a return to a westerly flow across the UK next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.1 pts to UKMO's 96.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.5 pts to UKMO at 86.8pts and GFS at 83.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.5 pts to 51.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.7 pts to 37.0 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  I can be quite brief this morning in my appraisal of the model outputs as they remain mostly focused upon a change from Continental winds blowing across the UK to colder and fresher Northerlies over the weekend and less cool and a traditional Westerly flow next week when the main theme will be for the fine weather that's been over the North lately to be transferred towards the South and SE while the NW sees the return of Westerly winds, bands of cloud and rain. There is some output that shows some rain reaching the South at times too and in the longer term outputs from GFS there looks a good chance that fine weather over the South later next week extends to all areas later in period in the shape of another fine and warm spell under High pressure over or close to the UK. So after the rains of today and perhaps tomorrow for many in the South a protracted dry and set fair period looks likely for the South for 5 days at least and it maybe that after the risk of some rain later next week for many the UK as a whole could return to some more High pressure based weather with temperatures on the rise again by the last week of May further endorsed by the Met office updates of late.

Next Update Thursday May 12th 2016 from 09:00

Yes you are right. I find the models are always poor in the detail when Low pressure lies to the South and weather systems come in from the much rarer direction of East and SE rather than the more traditional UK pattern of systems moving West to East through the UK.

The updated GFS has the high much further north on the 12z

06z

Pressure, once it rises, looks like staying high for a while in the S, and fairly dry too.  A similar rise in temperatures is forecast after the blip of a cool down this weekend:

The 12z cycle today was the first production run of the new GFS model. 

Next planned upgrades are:

2017-2018: Transition Global Spectral Model to NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS); Upgrade horizontal and vertical resolution of global model to ~10 km and 128 levels; Continuous advancements to model physics and data assimilation

2019 onwards: Implement new non-hydrostatic dynamic core for all global applications in a unified NEMS framework supported by Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) Project.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Troughs of Low pressure near Southernmost England will be pushed away South by a freshening NNE wind and fresher air moving down from the North over the coming days as a ridge of High pressure moves in close to Western Britain at the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK is currently near 8000ft but will fall markedly from the North in the coming days, this fall most prolific over the East where values nearer to 3500ft look likely by the weekend and nearer to 5000ft in the far West.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Less warm but becoming dry in the South with some rain too especially across the North and West.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream's flow which has been well South of the UK over the coming week or so will weaken and move away to the East across the Meditteranean Sea whereas the Northern arm remains weak and pushes a spore of energy South across the UK over the weekend. Then as we move through the rest of the forecast period the flow remains very variable with a split flow still looking likely with one arm to the North of the UK and one undulating to the South of the UK at times.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

NEW GFS OPERATIONAL The New GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of quite benign conditions over the next few weeks. Most of the time through the period we are governed by a ridge of High pressure stretching up from the SW with a lot of NW winds across the UK with a lot of dry if rather cloudy weather and with chilly nights where skies clear but nearer to average temperatures by day. Through the second week there is a more generally unsettled period indicated especially in the South as Low pressure edges up from the South but by the end of the run conditions revert to fine weather again for many as High pressure ridges in from the West again.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif  

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run is relatively similar with just the fact of the High pressure ridge receding far enough away at times to allow more unsettled westerly winds through the second week with some rain possible for all. Some warm and settled conditions under High pressure close by looks as though it could develop late in the period across the South and East.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today for day 14 shows a lot of High pressure around the UK in one shape or form with a lot of fine and settled weather likely across the UK with temperatures near or above average in light anticyclonic airflow patterns. A few members prefer to have more of an Atlantic cyclonic influence to the pattern under lower pressure to the NW although even on these members runs High pressure is shown quite close to the South and East.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a slack Northerly flow over the UK at the weekend with cooler than of late conditions and the odd shower scattered about on the eastern flank of a ridge of High pressure just to the west. Then next week it looks like winds back towards the West and with Low pressure closing in on Northern Britain more unsettled weather with some rain on a westerly breeze looks likely for a time towards midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the flow from the North persisting across the next 4-5 days with a cooling theme as the inherent warmth currently across the UK is displaced by colder sourced Arctic air with bright fresh days with chilly nights with a touch of frost.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM The theme of GEM this morning is one of rising pressure displacing the warm and humid and unsettled conditions across the South of the UK into more settled and colder North winds with bright sells and the odd shower over the weekend. Then as we move through next week winds back Westerly and a phase of unsettled weather with some rain looks likely to move across from the West midweek with a trend then towards a NW/SE split with further rain at times in the NW while the South and East see longer drier spells when it may become warmer at times as well.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM has cooler weather on the way by the weekend too as the winds back Northerly for a time. A ridge close to the West of the UK over the weekend should bring dry and bright if cooler weather for many and as winds back Westerly next week the theme is for more unsettled conditions across the North and West while fine conditions are more likely to last longer in the South and East although even here some rain is shown to affect these parts a week or so from now. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today shows the cooler Northerly flow at the weekend with largely dry and bright conditions with just an odd shower. Then as we move through next week a spell of Atlantic Westerly winds seems likely with some rain at times largely but not exclusively towards the North and West. then towards the second weekend High pressure builds in closer to the South and SE with a strong NW/SE split developing with fine and warm conditions across the South and east with the more unsettled weather held well towards the North and West by Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) Last nights 10 day Mean Chart is showing a theme close to that of the Operational Run at Day 10 with High pressure close to the SE and any unsettled weather more likely towards the far NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS  As yesterday the main emphasis shown by the models continues to point towards a return to a westerly flow across the UK next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.1 pts to UKMO's 96.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.5 pts to UKMO at 86.8pts and GFS at 83.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.5 pts to 51.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.7 pts to 37.0 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The next few weeks present few if any troublesome features to talk about with a lot of quite benign conditions likely across the British Isles as the pattern resets to normal UK synoptics over the next 4 to 5 days. The final embers of the warm and muggy air still over the UK will be pulled away South in the coming 48 hours as a weak cold front runs South tomorrow and Friday night. A quiet and benign weekend of weather is then likely with a a lot of cloud at times, the odd shower and some chilly nights. Then next week the theme is for winds to back towards the West with the risk of some rain almost anywhere for a time but more especially over the North but temperatures should recover somewhat especially by night. Moving further on still the most popular consensus appears to be for High pressure to be building close to the South or SE with these areas seeing a lot more in the way of fine and warm weather developing later in the period but the NW in particular looks like holding on to more of an Atlantic cyclonic influence with some rain. And that's about it really quite a quiet period of weather overall likely with nothing unpleasant or unusual being shown for the period anywhere and after a chilly few nights at the weekend when gardeners and growers need to take note of a risk of ground frost for a couple of nights this risk should be removed with average temperatures at least achieved for most of the period thereafter for all areas.

Next Update Friday May 13th 2016 from 09:00