Occasional wetter spells and general warmth are ideal for me. The garden is leaping ahead now :)

Aye 

My potatoes are about 1.5 foot high now.  Tomatos about half that.  Beans / Peas are already starting to show flowers.  (Have been in a cloche mind) but this last week has really injected a bit of ooomph into my Garden at just the right time i think,.

The south might not see much in the way of rain going out to mid next week the high edges away but remains close by

For my location, the 12z GFS short ensembles show a 9c  Warming of 850s from Saturday 14th  by as soon as Tuesday 17th!

Don't forget the cooling of 13ºC in half the time before then 

Nothing too inclement in the immediate future despite he arrival of the -5ºC t850s in the next couple of days.

Neigh problem.  The strength of any sunshine will blunt the brief two day chill and I await developments as May strides on to summer with quiet confidence of continuing useable and warm weather locally.

After tomorrow's upgrade (22C) in temperatures it's looking rather cool for 5 days down here according to the mets automatic thingy.

Phenomenal - you could feed a whole family with a potato that big! 

A very run-of-the-mill look to things for Mon-Fri next week, with a westerly regime bringing generally near average temperatures, some drier spells and some wetter spells.

Then we see signs of amplification to the pattern, with the Atlantic jet buckling yet again (unusually warm Arctic playing a part I expect) and some large-scale height rises across Europe, both south and east of the UK, as the main trough looks to set up in the North Atlantic and leave room for a strong high over Russia to extend its influence westward.

The 12z GFS and ECM runs have asked a question of this ridge in the form of a particularly vigorous Atlantic low. That it takes such a thing to cause any real problems is reassuring, given the tendency for such storms to fail to develop so efficiently.

Here's hoping the recent ensemble guidance pointing toward a predominance of fine, settled weather for the final week of the month turns out to be very much on the money .

Well this is a calamity isn't it?

We now have one of those 'residual wedge' scenarios in which a small area of higher heights north of the UK works to disrupt the Atlantic jet, with troughs sliding through the UK. Below are GFS on the left and ECM on the right, as examples.

GFS does make a bit of a hash of it going forward (upgrade, what upgrade?) but the overall theme of low pressure tracking south of the seasonal norm is there to disappoint us.

Whereas in winter we'd be looking for the section of the jet stream running southeast through S. England to stick around as long as possible, at this time of year we (or most of us, anyway) want to see an Atlantic trough/Azores ridge scenario develop strongly and blast it aside.

GFS manages this from day 10 onward, but ECM has us on a long old road to recovery, due  largely to the vigorous low running across the Atlantic that I mentioned yesterday evening. If that thing was slower, we'd follow a more GFS-like route.

We still have the fine final week of May to play for, as GFS illustrates nicely. History suggests that a fine spell typically gets delayed by 3-5 days. We've just seen a delay of 3 or even 4 days so it would be hard luck to see it pushed back much further.

ECM looking unsettled this morning in fact all the models do. The settled 2nd half of May is in serious doubt this morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

Well the ECM mean is much better than the Op at least. Day 10 though

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.html

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Cooler air is moving South across Northern Britain today and all areas by tomorrow with a ridge of High pressure edging in from the West over the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will fall everywhere over the next few days behind a weak cold front moving South across the UK. The level will lie at or around 3000ft over the far East over the weekend to around 6000ft over the extreme West.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE After a dry start becoming changeable with rain at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The strong Eastwards moving flow across the Mediterranean Sea is weakening and easing away east over the coming days with a weaker flow moving slow South across the UK. Renewed energy to the flow crosses the Atlantic towards the middle of next week approaching Southern Britain before being directed South for a time before crossing West to East across the UK for much of the second week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

NEW GFS OPERATIONAL The New GFS Operational Run today shows dry and quiet conditions until around Tuesday and it will be cooler across all areas than of late. Then from Tuesday the model run shows quite unsettled conditions across the UK under Low pressure drifting in from the West and becoming complex and slow moving for a time before a build of pressure from the South in the second week sees all areas becoming dry, warm and sunny towards the end of the month as High pressure extends in a belt from the Azores to Northern Europe in the last frames of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif  

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run follows a broadly similar path with the added ingredient of deep Low pressure over next weekend with the chance of gales and heavy rain for many as a deep Low passes over from the West before the same pressure build shown above occurs on this run too but less extensive than the Operational Run affecting the South and East of the UK while the North and West under a weak SW flow continues to throw a risk of occasional rain to the North and West.   

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The clustering today for day 14 shows a lot of slack pressure across the UK with all members having a common denominator of High pressure to the SW and/or NE with set fair conditions likely. Some members show this High pressure as less dominant with Low pressure delivering some rain at times.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a weak WNW flow early next week with dry and bright conditions to begin with. Then as we move through the week it will become unsettled for all with rain at times as Low pressure with Westerly winds shown to edge down from the North from Tuesday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the weak cold front completing it's journey through the UK bringing cooler and fresher air to all parts tomorrow. Then it's all about the ridge of High pressure following it collapsing away South early next week with Westerly winds and falling pressure ahead of a gang of troughs over the Atlantic pushing towards the UK by Tuesday and beyond.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM The theme of GEM this morning is one of falling pressure next week following several days of fine and cooler weather under a weakening ridge pulling it's way South early next week. This opens the door to Low pressure drifting into the UK from the NW and setting up a belt of showery low pressure across the UK then well into the second week. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM has a fine and cooler weekend for many with the theme of next weeks weather showing a slow deterioration into Westerly winds with rain at times extending to all areas with the worst of the rain and breeze to the North with drier conditions with less wind likely towards the South. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today also shows a dry and bright few days if cooler than of late lasting into the start of next week before the trend of the weather from Tuesday shows Low pressure regaining control from the North and the Atlantic with a cool and showery period of weather looking likely well before next weekend and continuing on through to the start of the second working week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) Despite the Operational showing quite unsettled and relatively cool conditions likely in 10 days time the mean chart shows a relatively warm SW flow across the UK between Low pressure to the West and NW while the SE lies under a slacker SW flow with less rain and more warmth the further South and SE over the UK you live.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS As yesterday the main emphasis shown by the models continues to point towards a return to a westerly flow across the UK next week with a trend this morning leaning towards this becoming quite unsettled for all.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.2 pts to UKMO's 96.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.4 pts to UKMO at 87.0pts and GFS at 83.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 62.8 pts to 51.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 43.7 pts to 37.8 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Instead of a lot of dry and fine warmer shown as hoped this morning it appears to me if that there is a growing desire within the models to bring back more unsettled conditions across all parts of the UK next week with an open ended answer to how long this continues or not in the period thereafter. As things stand at the moment today shows the last day of warm weather in the South as the weak cold front moving South currently clears the South Coast tomorrow with fresh but dry and bright weather affecting most through the weekend. then next week starts in the same vein but from Tuesday Low pressure looks like drifting down from the NW or North with some rain for all and following this further Low pressure seems destined to move in across the UK from the Atlantic maintaining the unsettled and relatively cool feel. GEM goes for a major storm system next weekend and for personal reasons I hope this does not occur as it could give heavy rain and gales for all if it moves in as shown. Outside of that model the main theme though is for unsettled weather more likely than fine weather lasting into the second week and although GFS does offer an olive branch of a reversion to warm and sunny weather under extensive High pressure towards the end of the month it really is to far out to call at the moment with some alternative less favourable conditions also shown within it's ensemble members. So the output today can best be summed up as offering changeable conditions with rain at times and near average temperatures with any repeat of this weeks warmth held at arms length on this morning's output. So lets hope the models offer something rather better over the upcoming days and I have something more positive to report in my next report on Sunday morning. 

Next Update Sunday May 15th 2016 from 09:00

The models this morning do have an Atlantic flavour about them for next week, meaning cooler and more unsettled.

Pretty normal IMO.

I wouldn't call 'cool' and 'unsettled' normal weather for the UK in May. Would you? In fact, May is supposed to be one of the driest and sunniest months of the year - so I'd expect the opposite. 

But May isn't the sunniest month.. Well at least not for the majority, perhaps for some gloomy city on the slopes of the Pennines 😋

I said 'one of the sunniest' - if you'd bother to read what I post properly 

Yes, May is the sunniest month of the year here - and one of the driest. July and August are joint second. It's certainly gloomy compared to Portsmouth, but considering no city in the UK can manage more than 2,000 hours of sun a year, I'd say the entire country is probably one of the gloomiest in the world - with only Iceland and Ireland being gloomier. Even the gloomiest cities in the US manage to averagefar more sunshine than the UK's sunniest. Such is life. 

Very unsettled Met/o 12z tonight.

Yes certainly the possibility of some large rainfall totals over the next 10 days, very disappointing NWP tonight.