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Brian Gaze
Monday, March 21, 2016 6:52:35 PM

Charts from Meteo France's 0.01 degree Arome model should soon be available on TWO. I think these will be the highest resolution data sets freely available on a UK based web site, the horizontal resolution is approximately 2km! 


The key benefit of very high resolution NWP IMO is to more accurately model precipitation, especially convective activity. The downside (from an IT perspective) is the need to shift and process much bigger data files. Therefore, for launch I'll probably only make precipitation data available.  


The sample chart below is from today's Arome 6z 0.01 degree model run. 



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
SJV
Monday, March 21, 2016 7:36:17 PM

Thanks Brian  I'm sure I speak for many on here when I say we'd all appreciate more detailed modelling of convective precipitation 

Twister
Tuesday, March 22, 2016 1:51:18 PM


Thanks Brian  I'm sure I speak for many on here when I say we'd all appreciate more detailed modelling of convective precipitation 


Originally Posted by: SJV 


Echo that! 


Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL
Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)
Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39
Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)
"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)
nsrobins
Tuesday, March 22, 2016 7:49:40 PM


 


Echo that! 


Originally Posted by: Twister 


See what you did there - very clever 😎


Thanks Brian - much appreciated 


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Brian Gaze
Tuesday, May 10, 2016 6:01:10 PM

Starting to make Arome 0.01 degree data available here:


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arome.aspx


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
Tuesday, May 10, 2016 6:42:53 PM

I think this is the highest resolution data (1.3km horizontal grid)* available either freely or via subscription in the UK with the exception of the MetO in house stuff. It should be particularly useful for tracking the development of convective features. 


*if anyone knows differently please say


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ARTzeman
Wednesday, May 11, 2016 12:49:31 PM

Not changing my other Two Manual measures yet.. Any body know if nearly infinite measures available..






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
Wednesday, May 11, 2016 1:00:57 PM

On the Probability Of Precipitation, How many runs on ensembles to achieve this reading....






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Quantum
Wednesday, May 11, 2016 1:07:27 PM

I've been using Arome for a while now, these are my observations on its performance.


 


1) Initializes poorly. I don't quite understand whether it uses GFS data like some WRF models do, but it tends to massively overestimate the precipitation for the immediate short term (generally under 8 hours ahead), the problem goes away for later hours but its bizarre; no other model does this quite to this extent. The WRF does, but it 'normalizes' far quicker.


2) Handles frontal precipitation very well, in particular its very good for telling whether a band of precip will fall as rain or snow. Arguably better even than the WRF on this. 


3) Underestimates shower activity, think this is a fairly major issue. Showers are not handled all that well by the AROME.


 


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
18/11 (-6)

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Brian Gaze
Thursday, May 12, 2016 3:38:28 PM


I've been using Arome for a while now, these are my observations on its performance.


 


1) Initializes poorly. I don't quite understand whether it uses GFS data like some WRF models do, but it tends to massively overestimate the precipitation for the immediate short term (generally under 8 hours ahead), the problem goes away for later hours but its bizarre; no other model does this quite to this extent. The WRF does, but it 'normalizes' far quicker.


2) Handles frontal precipitation very well, in particular its very good for telling whether a band of precip will fall as rain or snow. Arguably better even than the WRF on this. 


3) Underestimates shower activity, think this is a fairly major issue. Showers are not handled all that well by the AROME.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Initialises off Arpege I think. Why on earth would it run off GFS?


WRT showers it seems to have done very well today but I'll keep an eye on it.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
Tuesday, May 17, 2016 7:40:32 AM

CAPE and h/m/l cloud cover charts are now available.


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arome.aspx


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Twister
Tuesday, May 17, 2016 1:00:53 PM
Looking good. Perhaps the CAPE charts need a scale on them?
Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL
Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)
Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39
Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)
"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)
Brian Gaze
Tuesday, May 17, 2016 1:31:33 PM

Looking good. Perhaps the CAPE charts need a scale on them?

Originally Posted by: Twister 


Sorry, the data is correct but there's an error in my script which is stopping the scale bar from being plotted. I'll fix shortly.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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