Strong jet streak leaves the States this coming week and looks to cross Southern England. With LP spinning off it's northern flank it is indeed looking very unsettled during the next 10 days or so

Indeed, Dave, it's been shaping up that way for 2-3 days now.  In particular that disturbance that slides east and lands over us for Wednesday and ushers in the unsettled spell. Saturday looks especially dire.

Met O 144 turns more anticyclonic in the SW and reduces the depth of the northern low and shifts it 1000miles NW:

Whereas the GFS at the same time (Friday 0z) offers this which looks very poor :

Why do supposed weather enthusiasts think that May (and most other months) should be warm (or very cold) and settled in the UK?

Settled weather (ie high pressure set over the country) is the exception all year round.

I do appreciate though that some people may not realise Britain is an island in the Atlantic and not in the middle of a continent .....  Or indeed, have any basic understanding of weather.


Meanwhile, in the real world, after some exceptional warmth for early May, it looks like turning rather normal, for a while.  Nothing untoward though.   And the next bank holiday may at least be okay in the south

For what its worth, here are average annual sunshine totals for various regions in ROI

Dublin Airport (east coast) 1425.5
Belmullet (west coast) 1277.5
Valentia: (southwest coast) 1273.3
Malin Hd: (north coast) 1241
Mullingar (central) 1277

I imagine most if not all of these values are lower that most regions in England, but possibly compariable with the likes of Wales & Scotland.

Overall, May or June tends to be the sunniest months here.

0z GEM for Friday 12z (132) brings a low to Scotland but a ridge for the far south:

Not dissimilar from the UKMO on Saturday (144) as the ridge (less developed) has skipped through:

and the GFS for Saturday (144) is hell bent on a wet and windy fest:

After little rain out til Tuesday (at least for London) the ens show a much more unsettled picture from Wednesday outwards, the extent to which the rain and wind afflicts the far south is still open to change.

Edit : ensembles are confident of the weather taking a very unsettled turn.  It will be good for the gardens.

ECM builds some decent high pressure in by day 9. As has been said though plenty of unsettled weather before then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure lies just to the West of the British Isles with a slack and slackening further Northerly flow across the UK

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain near 5000ft across the far east to above 6000ft in the extreme West with a slow rising of the level in the East over the next few days while the highest levels over the extreme West falling back somewhat towards midweek.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE After a dry start becoming changeable with rain at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The current slack flow in the Jet Stream will align West to East and strengthen markedly by midweek as it surges East across the Atlantic and Southern Britain by the end of the working week. After spending several days in this form it breaks up and becomes anticyclonic around the UK for a time in the second week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

NEW GFS OPERATIONAL The New GFS Operational Run today shows the current ridge of High pressure weakening over the coming days as Low pressure moves in from the West with rain for all by midweek. The period following that will keep the weather unsettled for all with rain and heavy showers at times on a Westerly breeze as Low pressure is maintained to the North and later NE. Eventually pressure rises with more settled conditions developing, first in the South and then all areas later as High pressure builds strongly to the North of the UK again late in the run with Low pressure from Spain to the Med bringing the risk of thundery showers up from the South in rather warm conditions in an Easterly flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif  

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run follows a broadly similar path with the main difference being the less extensive spread of High pressure across the UK in the second week, instead restricting any improvements to the South and East albeit temporary before more Atlantic drives in towards the North soon after with no real change in pattern shown until the final day of the run.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The clustering today for day 14 shows us back to Low pressure domination over the UK in 14 days time with the exact patterning uncertain while only around 15% of members indicate a more High pressure based pattern with a centre close to the North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an unsettled spell developing for the UK this week starting from Tuesday as rain spreads East across the UK from the West later on Tuesday and is repeated again later in the week and extending into next weekend in association with low pressure centred to the North of Scotland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the slack High pressure ridge across the UK currently subsiding away South over the coming days as winds back westerly by Tuesday. Troughs ganging up across the Atlantic make their way across the UK towards midweek with rain shown for all followed by spells of sunshine and showers in a Westerly flow with further troughs in the flow too bringing longer spells of rain too in very average temperatures for mid May.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM The theme of GEM too is for Low pressure to bring a change to westerly winds and rain at times towards midweek with further spells of rain and showers under a similar guise through next weekend before better weather develops in response to a reversal of pressure patterns to one of High pressure to the North and Low pressure to the South brings an Easterly flow back to the UK by Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM continues the well worn message printed above from the other models in that unsettled weather from the west returns to all parts of the UK by midweek culminating in quite a deep Low pressure across or near the UK over next weekend with rain and showers for all in average temperatures. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today also shows the unsettled spell starting late on Tuesday with a period of 5-6 days of unsettled conditions with heavy showers and spells of rain in largely Westerly winds and near average temperatures. This run then shows a rapid change towards the middle part of the second week as High pressure builds rapidly from the South and settles just to the East with warmer and drier weather developing for many and probably lasting a while especially over the South and East. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from ECM shows a favouring of Low pressure lying across the Atlantic and High pressure to the South and SE of the UK with a bias towards changeable weather with the best conditions likely towards the South and East. However, there is some other options from the other members which are inclined to distort the overall patterning of the Mean chart today.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme from the models today continue to paint a more unsettled phase of weather to come before things become more uncertain thereafter.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.6 pts to UKMO at 86.8 pts and GFS at 83.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.7 pts to 49.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.2 pts to 36.7 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Over the last few days the models have changed little in their interpretations of events likely across the UK in the next week. The further out in the outputs as usual the greater the differences and reliability become but moving forward from now it is fairly certain that after a few more days of fine and benign weather if rather cool at times it is likely to become unsettled from the West by midweek with rain followed by showers moving bodily East through the UK from the Atlantic. This theme is reinforced by further Low pressure later this week with next weekend too looking pretty poor for reliability of dry conditions with showers for many and probably still some longer spells of rain thrown in for good measure. The patterning becomes rather less well defined thereafter with some output bringing better weather up from the South and as happened in the most recent warm weather event some output shows this High pressure being sucked North to lie to the North of the UK while to the South pressure falls with a resultant warm Easterly flow developing again, this option shown by GFS and GEM. In the extended term taking us out to day 14 and using GFS Clusters at Day 14 as an indicator a lot of Low pressure is shown to be in control of the weather over the UK with just 15% of members showing any form of High pressure to the North while ECM at day 10 still likes the idea of High pressure closer to the South and East where the warmest weather would reside while the NW sees rain and showers in a SW flow. Given the rather poor verification stats shown above for GFS in the longer term of late I will side with the more likely option shown by ECM for day 10 meaning that after an unsettled period with rain at times for all pressure will build from the South in the second week with fine and warm conditions gradually spreading up from the South and East to more areas with time. So in the meantime lets enjoy the next few days of reasonable weather before things turn somewhat soggy for some for a week or so at least. Join me for another installment tomorrow to see if there is any change to the general theme. 

Next Update Monday May 16th 2016 from 09:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure lies just to the West of the British Isles but will decline tomorrow as winds back from a chilly NNW flow to a WSW flow tomorrow with a trough of Low pressure approaching the West late on Tuesday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will rise over the coming days as the chilly NNW flow weakens and backs towards the WSW through this week. From a level of around 3000ft at first it should rise to at least 5000-6000ft for several days.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable with some rain or showers at times but some dry and brighter periods as well especially in the South and East.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The slack Jet flow currently will strengthen across the Atlantic and move towards Western Britain by Wednesday. It then continues blowing quite strongly for the time of year moving East then SW to NE towards and over next weekend. The flow then weakens through Week 2 and breaks up as higher pressure develops over and later to the North of the UK with a split flow then both North and well South of the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

NEW GFS OPERATIONAL The New GFS Operational Run today shows the current ridge of High pressure weakening and being replaced by a strengthening Westerly flow for the remainder of the week and next weekend with rain and showers spreading to all areas from the West. This unsettled phase peaks at the weekend when gales are possible in exposure before a transformation into High pressure develops through Week 2 with fine dry and warmer conditions developing for all while an easterly flow develops across the UK and with thundery Low pressure down to the South again some thundery showers could edge up into Southern Britain at times again by the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif  

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run sees things rather differently this morning in the second week with the High pressure of early next week gradually declining away to the SE with a breakdown occurring from the Atlantic rather than the South like the Operational shows. So after the unsettled phase of this week a drier phase early next week when it becomes warmer is gradually replaced by rain at times especially towards the North and West later in the second week.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today for day 14 shows no clear cut direction in what may be thrown at us at that time point with a lot of clusters indicating fairly slack conditions across the UK about equal in measure between slack Low and High pressure areas in proximity of the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an unsettled spell developing for the UK this week and lasting through next weekend too with brisk West or SW winds carrying bands of rain, heavy at times but with some brighter weather with heavy showers in between. Temperatures remain near average by day but will be much milder by night than currently.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the slack High pressure ridge across the UK currently subsiding away South and being replaced by WSW winds and a whole plethora of troughs moving East across the UK for the remainder of the week and into the weekend with showers or longer spells of rain at times for all.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM The theme of GEM too is for Low pressure to bring a change to Westerly winds and rain at times towards midweek in association with low pressure close to NW Britain with further spells of rain and showers under a similar guise through next weekend before better weather develops early next week as pressure is shown to rise across the UK and then remains High over the North next week while the South sees the return of thundery rain later as Low pressure edges North towards SW England by the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM is not available this morning at time of issue of this report. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today also shows the unsettled spell starting late on Tuesday with periods of rain and showers across all areas for that period sometimes heavy and accompanied by fresh winds from a Westerly source. Then as we move through next week winds back SW as pressure rises to the SE and a NW/SE split in the weather looks possible with rain and showers continuing across the North and West while longer dry spells and more occasional rain is likely in the SE where it looks like it could become rather warm for a time at least.  

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure across the Atlantic and a bias of High pressure just to the SE and east of the UK with a weak SW flow delivering some rain and showers at times, perhaps thundery in places as the South or SW flow indicated brings relatively warm and humid air up across the UK at times especially in the South and East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme from the models today continue to paint a more unsettled phase of weather to come before things become more uncertain thereafter.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.7 pts to UKMO at 86.8 pts and GFS at 83.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.2 pts to 49.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.0 pts to 36.5 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The weather is about to turn rather more unsettled across the UK as the chilly NW flow gives way to a stronger WSW flow from later tomorrow on with troughs of Low pressure delivering spells of rain and showers for the remainder of the week. The one good thing is that all risk of frost by night will be removed after tonight as wind and cloud cover serve to hold night temperatures up. By day temperatures will stay close to average and it will feel warm in any sunshine between the showers. Over the weekend it maybe that the peak of this unsettled phase of weather will occur with strong winds for some accompanying more rain and showers but from the start of next week on there are tentative signs of a change to somewhat or maybe entirely drier conditions with higher pressure building in the proximity of the UK with time, settling the weather down with warmer conditions in place too. The method in how this develops is still very uncertain and it may not be the start of a sustained fine and settled spell as various outputs push the High to the North with thundery Low pressure edging up from the South while other outputs hold High pressure closer to the SE with the NW seeing some more unsettled conditions moving in against the higher pressure from off the Atlantic. What I can say though is that it looks as though temperatures will be fairly comfortable over the period resulting in any sunny spells between the outbreaks of rain feeling rather warm and frosts at night will hopefully become a thing of the past for this season and while there is no sustained fine and warm weather shown to last long all in all conditions shown within this morning's output could be a lot worse and represents fairly standard late Spring conditions across the UK. 

Next Update Tuesday May 17th 2016 from 09:00

a whole lot of high pressure about 😍☀️ 

Could be el scorchio for some Europeans, 

Nah that chart won't come off. It's a Bank Holiday Monday!

Actually it would be nice if it did as the wife & I are planning to go down to Exeter that weekend.

ah it's s bank holiday.. 😏 In that case it will all probably end up shifting 400 miles eastwards😒 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Troughs of Low pressure will move East across the UK over the next 24 hours or so repeated again on the remaining days of the week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK for the rest of the week will remain in the range of 5000-8000ft for the rest of the week as troughs cross East across the UK ebbing and flowing the level up and down.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable with some rain or showers at times but some dry and brighter periods as well especially in the South and East.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The slack Jet flow currently will strengthen across the Atlantic and move towards Western Britain soon and then become established across Southern Britain and to the South as Low pressure lies close by. Then through the second week the pattern weakens and breaks up as High pressure develops to the North and the Jet stream becomes weak and ill defined on it's location. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

NEW GFS OPERATIONAL The New GFS Operational Run today shows the weather deteriorating over the UK in the coming days as Low pressure moves in from the West with showers and longer spells of rain coupled with strong winds at times lasting well into the weekend with temperatures near average. Winds will become strong too at the weekend before pressure rises to the SE and the rain and unsettled theme becomes more and more restricted to the NW. Then late in the period High pressure develops and settles to the NE of the UK and with lower pressure then to the South a warm or very warm and humid Easterly flow develops with thundery showers across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif  

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run sees things rather differently this morning in the second week but with the same unsettled and later windy period at the weekend. Through the second week this run shows pressure becoming slack across the UK with some showers in places at times while there will be plenty of dry and relatively warm spells at times for all as well.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today look not too bad if it's fine weather your after in 14 days as there is a lot of High pressure shown near the UK at that time, albeit somewhat slack in nature. Only around 10% of model runs from GFS indicate Low pressure to the NW and rain at times this morning. 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an unsettled spell developing for the UK for the rest of the week peaking on Saturday as rain at times culminates in a spell of wet and windy weather on Saturday with strong winds in places too. Then things start to improve from the SW on Sunday before Monday sees remaining unsettled weather across the North while dry and bright weather moves into more Southern areas from the SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show troughs moving bodily East across the Uk for the rest of the week with rain at times for all, some heavy and accompanied by strong winds at the weekend especially across Northern and western Britain.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM The theme of GEM too is for Low pressure to bring a change to Westerly winds and rain at times later today onward with some heavy rain at times for all coupled with strong winds for a time at the weekend. Then after the weekend warmer air moves North across the UK as pressure rises to the east backing winds towards the South. This means that warm and humid weather looks likely next week with Low pressure to the West and High pressure to the East with a few thundery showers at times in the West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows unsettled weather with rain at times from today with some strong Westerly winds at times especially at the weekend. Then as we move into the new week Low pressure edges away to the NE allowing higher pressure and better weather to slowly extend North and East across the UK in average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today also shows the unsettled period from today as Low pressure troughs and Low pressure move across the UK from the West. This unsettled period lasts through the weekend when some strong winds look likely especially on Saturday. Then as the run moves through next week it shows Low pressure anchoring down to the SW for a time before filling up and bringing some potentially thundery rain at times to the South with the driest weather switching towards the North.  

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure across the Atlantic and higher pressure to the East while Southerly winds bring relatively warm and probably humid conditions with the risk of showery rain at times especially across the West and NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme from the models today continue to paint a more unsettled phase of weather to come before things probably become drier and warmer later especially in the SE.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.2 pts to UKMO's 96.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.9 pts to UKMO at 86.9 pts and GFS at 84.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 60.5 pts to 48.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 42.4 pts to 34.7 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The models today continue to bring much more unsettled conditions to the UK commencing over the next day or so. All areas can expect some rain, moving in from the West late today and continuing through the rest of the week and the weekend when winds could become a feature too for a time with Westerly gales in exposure. Temperatures will be close to average by day but much less cool than recently by night with the risk of frost finally eliminated. Then after this unsettled phase and looking towards next week we should see slow improvements take place most likely from the South with any further rain restricted more and more towards the NW with the chance of some warm conditions in the SE at least. Low pressure always looks likely to remain either to the NW or SW of the UK so the Western extremities of the UK could see some further rain at times, perhaps thundery if Low pressure lies to the SW with warm weather extending to many parts of the UK should that become the case. So getting through the next 5-6 days of rain at times may well be the precursor to slow improvements towards warmer and more settled conditions especially over the East and SE and with winds largely blowing from a Southerly source temperatures never look likely to be a problem in the next few weeks. 

Next Update Wednesday May 18th 2016 from 09:00

Thanks Martin. Its been a good month down here. After this unsettled blip it appears to be shaping up nicely again. 

We'll certainly looks like a warm up is on the way for the end of May. Perhaps a considerable one!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Unsettled Met/o 12c.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Showery Low pressure will move across Southern England today clearing away East tonight with further fronts moving across from the West in a westerly flow tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain above all summits across the UK over the coming days basically in the range of 5000-8000ft.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable with some rain or showers at times but some dry and brighter periods as well especially in the South and East.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will be focused on moving in a NE'ly direction either over Southern England or the near continent for much of the coming period as it responds to pressure being Low to the West and later SW of the UK with periods in between when the flow disrupts somewhat and becomes light and ill defined. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

NEW GFS OPERATIONAL The New GFS Operational Run today shows the weather as very changeable over the coming few weeks with a very showery and perhaps windy period at the weekend melting into somewhat better conditions through next week more especially towards the North as pressure rises. The South may see further showery spells of weather perhaps thundery in places before this transfers further North later with a warm and drier phase for the South although the theme of maintaining a theme of higher pressure towards the North remains at the close of the run. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif  

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run sees things rather differently this morning in the second week with High pressure more likely to lie towards a point to the South of the UK with the best conditions there with some warm sunshine at times whereas in the North conditions remain Atlantic governed with rain at times in SW winds.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today again looks High pressure biased for the period in 14 days time with a centre likely lying to the West and SW with fine and being conditions likely for many across the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning seems to be changing daily within it's outer limits of time. Today a very showery end to the weekend drifts into better conditions next week as High pressure builds from the SW by the early part of next week with dry and bright weather steadily extending to all areas by Tuesday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a concoction of troughs moving across the UK over the next 5 days with each one bringing an intensification of the showers or spells of rain all mixed in with some brighter and drier interludes too.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM The theme of GEM shows conditions shaping up much like UKMO this morning up to Day 6 with better conditions developing under High pressure next week as it moves up from the SW. Then later next week Low pressure to the SW pushes the ridge away towards the North and east with the risk of thundery showers returning to the South and West. However, a ridge from the High looks as though it could attempt to maintain a lot of fine and dry weather for many areas right out to the second weekend with any showers restricted to the far West later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too follows a similar path as far as it goes out to this time next week with things improving under rising pressure early next week with showers dying out before potentially returning to the far South and SW later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today is less keen on developing extensive High pressure next week instead preferring to keep rather slack pressure conditions across the UK with the highest pressure towards the North while slack Low pressure over and to the Southeast of the UK maintains the risk of heavy showers at times with temperatures close to or perhaps a but above the seasonal average at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure across the Eastern Atlantic and higher pressure to the East while Southerly winds bring relatively warm and probably humid conditions with the risk of showery rain at times especially across the West and NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme from the models today show a slow path to rather better conditions under higher pressure to return as we move through next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.2 pts to UKMO's 96.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.7 pts to UKMO at 86.7 pts and GFS at 84.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 59.3 pts to 48.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 40.3 pts to 33.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS There is still a lot of indecision in the details of the pattern as we  move out of this current very unsettled and sometimes wet period likely over the coming days and weekend. The risk of high winds at the weekend has subsided somewhat as the depth of Low pressure seems to be reduced somewhat with isobars further apart as a result. nevertheless all areas look at risk of heavy rain and showers at times between now and the start of next week. Then as the Low pressure areas move away to the NE pressure is shown to rise from the SW. This is shown by all models but in varying degrees of extent and significance for conditions across the UK for the rest of next week. The general theme should be for these better conditions to reach the SW on Monday extending to all areas by midweek but there are differences on opinion on how long and to what extent this fine weather lasts and in what areas. The main theme appears to be that the High pressure area drifts to the NE of the UK with low pressure developing down to the SW spreading a risk of showers back up into Southern and SW Britain later next week. Some output then shows this becoming the main driving force of the weather as this showery theme reaches more areas later. However, some output shows this High pressure lasting rather linger and to more areas with the GFS Clusters showing much support for High pressure influential across Britain by Day 14. However, having said all that the jury is still out on the details from say Tuesday of next week so expect more shifts in model output towards better or worse scenarios over the coming days. At least temperatures look like being respectable for most parts through the period so nothing too alarmist to report upon this morning for those farmers and growers in the next few weeks as the growing season accelerates in earnest. 

Next Update Thursday May 19th 2016 from 09:00

Yes sorry should have said east coast will not do as well but the bulk of Northern Britain would have a fine weekend.

Sun in Carlisle and rain in London is a rare combination and one to be savoured! Lol

Andy

Apart from the East Coast Andy of course!

ECM shows Easterlies for a week!

I need to be in the Lakes....do you do B&B??

ECM becoming increasing warm and thundery later next week. Mid 20s in the South as well as plenty of TS. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html