THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will move away East today with a system of troughs moving bodily across the UK from the West later today and tonight clearing to a westerly flow tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level and snow forecast is now suspended until the beginning of October.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable with some rain or showers at times but some dry and brighter periods as well especially in the South and East. Near or above average temperatures.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is expected to buckle South again over the weekend as Low pressure edges in from the East Atlantic to the UK. thereafter the flow sets up well South of the UK forming a deep trough over the eastern Atlantic, the UK and NW Europe with low pressure dominant close to the South of the UK frequently. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the weather as very changeable over the coming few weeks with Low pressure moving into the UK at the weekend and then persisting in close proximity to the South of the UK for some considerable time while pressure builds to the North of the UK. The pattern tries to reset late in the period with SW winds gradually becoming more established.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif  

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run sees things very similar with an unsettled weekend leading into a brief dry and warm period early next week. then High pressure transfers well North of the UK with low pressure feeding up across Southern and Central areas with rain and showers for all especially over the South. Then at the end of the run the pattern remains quite mixed with showers still likely for many under rather slack pressure conditions and High pressure to the NW.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today looks very slack pressure based with the risk of showers and static conditions in 2 weeks time with winds from a North or NE direction with only a relatively small group of members deviating from this course.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows better weather early next week following an unsettled weekend. Then by midweek Low pressure to the SW and South and rising pressure to the North sets up an Easterly flow with relatively warm weather but with the increasing risk of showers across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show troughs bringing rain slowly East through the UK at the weekend followed by a showery Westerly flow for a time before pressure shows signs of rising from the SW over the early days of next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM The theme of GEM shows a short better spell of weather early next week with at least a showery weekend ahead of that for many and a wet one for some. The better weather then is lost to a strengthening easterly flow and falling pressure from the South as we move through next week with some rain and showers again especially in the South. Conditions slowly slacken thereafter with a more scattered array of showers in light winds and slack pressure gradients across the UK to end the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a changeable pattern of weather next week with some dry and bright weather mixed with spells of cloud and rain and on this run the North too is under threat of rain at times as much as the South with time. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today is as confused as the rest in specific detail in the weather for the next 10 days. The main theme seems to be that the UK Low complex at the weekend with it's showery weather will give way to higher pressure briefly early next week before this is sucked away North with falling pressure to the SW of the UK bringing muggy and humid air North across the UK with thundery rain and showers affecting the South at times and more widely later as the Low makes inroads into Southern Britain to end the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure across Western Ireland affecting the UK with a Southerly biased wind bringing relatively warm and humid air and thundery showers at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme from the models today remain focused on higher pressure to the North of the UK and Low to the South and SW next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.8 pts to UKMO at 87.1 pts and GFS at 84.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 58.5 pts to 48.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 39.1 pts to 32.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The models today remain as sketchy on detail as ever for the weather across the UK in the coming two weeks with uncertainty starting from as early as this weekend. What we have currently is a westerly flow across the Atlantic carrying troughs across the UK at times bringing a mix of rain or showers at times with some bright and dry weather in between. It now looks as though the gales for the weekend will thankfully not take place at least on a widespread scale with rain probably more the disruptive feature for these with outside plans such as me this weekend. This will take the form of heavy showers and some longer spells of rain in places, timings uncertain. Then as the Low pressure responsible fills and moves away East over the UK the weather looks like settling down for a day or two early next week as High pressure builds in from the SW. This doesn't hold though as Low pressure to the SW by midweek pushes High pressure to the North of the UK with an East or SE flow developing across all areas with some thundery risk moving up into southern Britain from most output and to many other areas too from some. The models then struggle with any guaranteed evolution beyond this point with conditions through the second week across the UK highly uncertain given the spreads between the models and runs within their own ensemble groups. So although conditions over the next week seem to be gathering a pattern between the models anything shown for any particular solution beyond a week's time need to be taken with a pinch of salt at the moment and with so much slack pressure looking likely across the Northern hemisphere over the coming weeks and a Jet stream seemingly well South almost anything is possible so stay tuned. 

Next Update Friday May 20th 2016 from 09:00

Liking the ECM 00z for the bank holiday weekend.

A pleasing outlook in the longer term to my eye on the 12z ens.  Indicative that temperatures may well probably be slightly above the l t average.

I will take that, with the obvious caveat that something much warmer or a little cooler would too be possible

Lovely classic may th'ormd- low nudging in from the continent, easterlies and 10C 850 on the edge. Boom boom with any strong sun in the south.

I don't Duane! Cool and probably misty here! I'll look forward to your thunder reports!

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Troughs of Low pressure will move East across the UK at times today and over the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level and snow forecast is now suspended until the beginning of October.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable with some rain or showers at times but some dry and brighter periods as well especially in the South and East. Near or above average temperatures.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to buckle South again over the weekend as Low pressure edges in from the East Atlantic to the UK. The flow remains further South than is normal for the time of year, blowing in a NE'ly direction across the near Continent for much of next week. In the second week the flow becomes weak and ill defined.

GFS OPERATIONAL The main theme of the GFS Operational Run this morning is for a generally changeable period to come under Low pressure through the first week or so. Low pressure over or near the UK this weekend is replaced by higher pressure moving North to the North of the UK next week at the same time as Low pressure transfers SW of the UK with thundery showers feeding North later next week before in the second phase of the run fine and settled conditions are shown developing first in the South then to all areas to end the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif  

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run shows a similar pattern to the synoptics over the next few weeks but small differences in pressure distribution and the nature of air could result in different weather events place to place and day to day. For example next weeks Low pressure from the SW is more muted on this run in a similar way that the higher pressure in the second week is too with the risk of showery rain in light winds the main theme of the two weeks.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The clustering today looks very slack pressure based with the bias towards higher pressure rather than low influential to the UK with a fair amount of dry and benign weather conditions as a whole across the UK in 14 days.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning maintains it's theme of better weather for a time early next week as High pressure transfers North of the UK with shallow Low pressure moving up from the SW introducing the risk of thundery showers to at least Southern Britain later next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show troughs bringing rain slowly East through the UK at the weekend followed by a rise in pressure from the SW gradually positioning itself as a High pressure area to the NW of the UK towards the middle of next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM The theme of GEM shows a 10 day period when slack pressure across the UK is likely. This makes forecasting very difficult to predict day to day as there will always be a risk of showers or outbreaks of sometimes thundery rain mixed with some fine warm spells for almost all the UK especially early next week and again towards the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a much more coherent fall of pressure to the SW of the UK next week resulting in a stronger ESE flow with thundery showers edging into at least Southern Britain with the North seeing the best of the drier and warmer weather that will be around as well.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today is very supportive of the Low pressure to the SW next week becoming absorbed by slack pressure across NW Europe in general with plenty of heavy and thundery showers likely almost anywhere in light winds and plenty of dry, bright and probably humid and warm weather as well.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night shows slack pressure gradients across the UK in relatively unstable air supporting thundery showers and outbreaks of rain mixed with warm and bright spells in between..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS  The theme from the models today seem to lean towards slack pressure meaning light winds and a sunshine and shower mix of weather across the UK with day to day variances hard to predict.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.8 pts to UKMO at 87.4 pts and GFS at 84.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 58.7 pts to 50.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 38.1 pts to 32.4 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  The models today continue to looks very undecided on events beyond the early days of next week. It all seems to hinge on how much extent of Low pressure to the SW of the UK then influences conditions across the UK and where pressure patterns beyond move. The problems are also complicated by a weak Jet Stream later next week and beyond with little guidance on where it will actually lie but my best shot this morning is that after a drier and warmer phase following an unsettled weekend it looks like an Easterly flow will develop with rain or thundery showers moving up from the South and as pressure then falls generally across the UK showers could become widespread and heavy at times but interspersed by comparably bright and sunny warm and probably humid conditions. That's about it really and speculation beyond that analysis seems futile with such slack synoptics likely later next week and onward. I am not able to produce a report now until Monday morning so to all my readers have a successful weekend at dodging the showers and hopefully I will return Monday morning looking at some summery synoptics.

Next Update Monday May 23rd 2016 from 09:00

Nearly 48 hours without any posts in the MOD thread

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html
Not very mobile with a decent chance of high pressure settle weather in between showery outbreaks. Looking even more settled towards the end of May to start June .?

Thanks for that helpful contribution...

This is what I want to see - HP building in from the SW.  You can usually get 5 fine days out of that.

Today's 0z GFS chart for 31st May:

More warmer than average fayre, probably with sprinklings of rain for the south, should a be a slug-tastic end to May.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Pressure is building to the North of the UK with the slack Northerly showery flow gradually weakening as it veers NE over the next few days.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level and snow forecast is now suspended until the beginning of October.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some rain or showers at times but plenty of dry and fine weather too especially in the North. Occasionally warm in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to feature largely to the South of the UK over the next few weeks. It features in a cyclonic form around Low pressure to the SW later this week this easing out only slowly as a period of slack and poorly defined period of flow seems likely in a week or so and through the second week although what flow there is seems to remain biased to be at a point South of the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure forming to the South and SW of the UK and High pressure to the North becoming the driving forces within the UK weather over the coming weeks. The situation develops over the next few days as an easterly flow develops with some reasonably warm conditions especially towards the West but with an increased risk later of thundery showers moving up from the South eventually affecting many areas from the start of next week with only slow changes in the overall patterning then through the second week involving more showers at times but with some dry and bright and potentially warm conditions for many at times as well.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif  

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run shows a similar pattern to the synoptics over the first week while the second week leans an influence towards warm and sunny conditions developing with the risk of the occasional thundery shower as High pressure looks more resilient in this run although some insertions of shallow Low pressure looks possible too.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today continues to show some variations in expected conditions across the UK in two weeks ranging from slack pressure with showers to dry and fine weather under High pressure. There is nothing too dramatic shown though within the clustering for the UK so quite average benign conditions would be the most likely patterning.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows the theme of an ENE flow for a time this week before the winds fall light as the pressure pattern slackens always with the risk of some potentially thundery showers at times probably most focused towards the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure to the North with an Easterly flow developing across the UK. A lot of dry weather for many for a time but later in the week troughs from both the East and South threaten parts of the UK with showers by the end of the week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM The theme of GEM shows a week or so of easterly winds with the increasing risk of showers by the weekend before High pressure slowly builds NE into the UK over the Bank Holiday weekend and next week with showers dissolving and conditions becoming sunny and warm for many.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM keeps slack Low pressure conditions across the UK from later this week, through the weekend and out to the end of the run with a continued risk of showers, some heavy especially in the South but with some warm, dry and bright weather for many too at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today is not the best of the group this morning if it's fine and settled weather your after as persistent High pressure North of the UK keeps Low pressure albeit weak and slack near to the South with thundery showers at times right out to Day 10 from this morning's run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night shows the UK in almost 'col' conditions between two Low pressure areas East and West and High pressure areas North and South. This often means quite quiet and benign conditions with some warm sunshine mixed with occasional showers.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme from the models today seem to lean towards slack pressure being maintained for the foreseeable future meaning light winds and a sunshine and shower mix of weather across the UK with day to day variances hard to predict.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.0 pts to UKMO at 87.0 pts and GFS at 85.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 58.6 pts to 51.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 38.2 pts to 35.7 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS A few days off from the models and I was hoping that changes towards High pressure based weather with UK wide warm and sunny conditions would greet me this morning but with the odd exception or two I see that is not the case and in fact changes since I last reported on Friday are minimalist in a picture of very slack conditions across the UK with fine and humid weather mixed with the risk of potentially thundery showers at times. The main focus of the weather appears to be High pressure positioned to the North of the UK keeping our risk of warm humid and continental style conditions moving up across at least the South of the UK later this week and looking reluctant to move away thereafter. This means of course an Easterly flow across the UK so west will be best for warmth while Eastern coasts look occasionally cool and cloudy at times with winds off the North Sea. Thundery showers will focus on the South at first but could occur elsewhere too with time. In these slack pressure patterns many areas end up with conditions set fair or better with little in the way of significant rain whereas localities could see some very heavy downpours at times and the devil will be in the detail day to day over the coming weeks. Temperatures shouldn't be a concern and it could feel warm and humid at times away from that East coast. Then if I had to make a judgement on where we go longer term I would favour a slow build of pressure, hopefully from the SW which would be the best direction to bring our best shot at warm and sunny weather and I feel there is a chance of that happening as we enter deeper into June.

Next Update Tuesday May 24th 2016 from 09:00

ECM goes for a potentially cool and cloudy bank holiday for S and E Britain:

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure lies to the North of the UK with a chilly NNE flow over the east of the UK and a less fresh flow further west. A trough of low pressure will move west from Europe into Eastern and some Northern areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level and snow forecast is now suspended until the beginning of October.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some thundery rain or showers at times but plenty of dry and fine weather too this especially in the North. Occasionally warm in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to feature largely to the South of the UK over the next few weeks. It features in a cyclonic form around Low pressure to the South and SW later this week and over the Bank Holiday weekend this easing out only slowly through the second week as High pressure re-develops to the North and then West of the UK sending a flow South over NW Europe on it's Eastern flank at the end of the period

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure forming to the South and SW of the UK and High pressure to the North becoming the driving forces within the UK weather over the coming weeks. The situation develops over the next few days as an Easterly flow develops with some reasonably warm conditions but with an increasing risk of thundery showers first in the South from the end of the working week. Low pressure from Europe then becomes the driving force as it moves up into the South of the UK for a time before High pressure rebuilds to the NW and pushes the low pressure areas in the South away East and SE leading the UK falling under a cool Northerly flow by the end of the period with the best conditions then likely to be in the West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif  

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run shows a very similar sequence of events with some day to day differences between this run and the Operational only making marginal differences at the surface maintaining a largely showery theme across the South with quite warm conditions for a while before the same shift of High pressure out into the Atlantic late in the period opens the door to the North for cool and showery weather to affect the UK as we move deeper into June.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today continues to show quite a muddly pattern with the bias looking like High pressure lying to the West or SW with a NW flow across the UK with varying degrees of influence of Low pressure towards the North and NW.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows the North and NW the best place to be over the coming 5 days or so as High pressure lies close by to the North. Here there will be a lot of dry and fine weather. The further South one travels would see the risk of thundery showers increase with the weather slowly turning cooler later in the weekend as the North and NE wind increases across the South and East as the pressure gradient increases across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure to the North over the next 5 days with troughs of Low pressure straddling the UK over the weekend, all rather weak but significant enough to promote some showers to develop across the South, some thundery in increasingly warm and humid air.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM The theme of GEM this morning shows High pressure to the North and lower pressure to the South throughout it's 10 day forecast period with the main theme being North and NW being best for sunshine and dry weather while Southern areas see a risk of thundery showers at times in occasionally warm and humid conditions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM keeps High pressure to the North too with the same risk of thundery showers in the South lasting up to the middle of next week when the showers could ease due to High pressure edging closer up to the South as well.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today is maintaining the pattern of High pressure to the North strengthening next week with Low pressure to the South throughout. With that High pressure to the North strengthening the pressure gradient over the South is shown to increase next week making the rather warm and humid air across the UK at the weekend feel rather fresher but never removing the risk of thundery showers edging up from Europe at times right out to the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night shows the UK still in very slack conditions at Day 10 as High pressure to the South and North are dissected by Low pressure over Southern Europe and well out in mid Atlantic. The most likely result would be a lot of dry and bright weather with a few showers particularly towards the South and SE..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains no strong desire for the models as a whole to remove Northern blocking High pressure over the next few weeks at least, leading to an East or NE flow being maintained with thundery showers in the South to remain the main theme between the models.  

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.0 pts to UKMO at 86.8 pts and GFS at 85.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 58.5 pts to 52.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 38.3 pts to 34.7 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The main patterning that's shown between the models this morning is not an uncommon one for this time of year when parts of Scotland and the NW of the UK can often see the best conditions of their year with some good sunny spells and warm conditions prominent. For this to occur we need High pressure to the North and NW with Low pressure to the South of the UK and that's exactly what will be developing over the coming days, a pattern that once formed may prove to hang around for most if not all of the forecast period covered by the output this morning. So from that changes in the overall patterning will be slow but day to day differences in the weather will be small scale but significant. Firstly I would guess that Eastern coasts adjacent to the North Sea will be subject to cloudy and cool conditions as our old friend 'North Sea Haar' is brought in on a NE breeze. Secondly the warm and humid air drifting over Southern Britain from the continent will promote some heavy and thundery showers at times. These look like ebbing and flowing over the period with the main threat looking to come from an increasing and cooler NE flow next week as the High pressure to the NW of the UK looks like it could strengthen more with showers across the South and East in particular. However, that is just a possibility at this range and there will be plenty of warm and dry weather in the South too over the long weekend with just the risk of thundery showers rather than wall to wall rainfall. So as I've already indicated for the UK it looks like this patterning could be a protracted one with long term changes seeming very slow due to a weak Jet stream and pressure remaining very high towards the Arctic. So with little or no rain in the far NW to some heavy showers elsewhere it may well be that rainfall becomes well below average in the North over the next few weeks with some places in the South too seeing very little if you manage to avoid the scattered downpours. Temperatures should hold up well especially in the West and NW while cooler air could affect the SE later and the North Sea coast looks particularly prone to coolness with onshore winds. Nevertheless I have seen far worse charts for the beginning of June so my advice is enjoy the warmth and sunshine where you can. More from me tomorrow.

Next Update Wednesday May 25th 2016 from 09:00

Prospects look pretty decent for my part of the world for the next week according to the models, I must say.

A north/south split next week.

North and West dry and fairly sunny and warm, South and East, wet/thundery at times though still fairly warm here.

Well will see and time will tell but as is typical for this country we are setting up for some major northern blocking and that is never a good thing in summer. Check out Gavs Weathervids for an explanation. 

I don't buy into the Met Office model and all the talk from the usual fantasists about this summer. In my view it's shaping up very poorly indeed and after all the wet weather we have had this year and last a lot of significant flooding could be on the cards this summer. 

Yes, you're always going for the worst case scenario, Mr Moomin. Tell us something we don't know. 

I also went for a very mild and wet winter and that wasn't a bad call either. 

As I say time will tell but I do fear the worst. I hope I am wrong.

Two distinct clusters of runs as we head into FI with the op and control heading for colder conditions after quite a burst of warmth over the first week.  A lot of northerly flow indicated for the second week. Looks like south west could be best for the opening salvos of meteorological summer.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure lies to the North of the UK with a frontal trough moving West over Central areas later today while the NE flow to the South of it fall slack and more variable tomorrow as more humid air advances from the South across Southern Britain..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level and snow forecast is now suspended until the beginning of October.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some thundery rain or showers at times but plenty of dry and fine weather too this especially in the North. Occasionally warm in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to feature largely to the South of the UK over the next few weeks although it's strength is for the most part very weak and it maybe that the placement of it is not overall very influential in fast moving weather changes with a lot of quiet and benign weather patterns near the UK especially later in the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of slack pressure conditions likely over and around the UK over the next few weeks. Putting some meat on the bones shows Low pressure edging up from the South through the Bank Holiday weekend with some warm, humid and showery air gradually displaced by rising pressure next week from the South with some dry and warm weather next week especially over the South. Then in the second week the theme is for High pressure to build strongly to the North and NE with Low pressure to the SW setting up a warm and dry ESE flow with any thundery showers restricted to the extreme SW with dry, warm and sunny conditions elsewhere.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif  

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run shows a very similar sequence of events with High pressure gradually building North across the UK next week as the thundery Low to the SE at the end of the Bank Holiday Weekend moves North away from the UK and weakens. Then after a theme of dry and relatively warm weather for a while this run shows a return of slack Low pressure areas moving into the UK with more showers at times towards the latter days of the period.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today continues to show quite a mixed pattern with the bias today on lower pressure over higher pressure more likely than not to be influential at the 14 day point. What is less clear is it's position in relation to the UK and where and if how much affect in the way of cloud and rain it would bring.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a slack Easterly flow across the Bank Holiday weekend with some thundery showers possible at times in the South. Then over the first few days of next week a deep Low to the SE brushes the East and SE of the UK with the risk of more persistent rain and a cool NE wind while showers continue elsewhere under the slack pressure gradients still present over the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure to the North over the next 5 days with the theme of the raw data mirrored by the fax Charts this morning as pressure is biased lower to the South and East and higher to the NW.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM The theme of GEM this morning shows a continued theme of High pressure to the North and Low pressure to the South throughout it's run this morning with the Low pressure to the South edging up into Britain later with showers and thunderstorms a common risk across the South with a lot of dry and fine weather across the North where it will be warm at times in the sheltered West and out of the Light east flow coming into Eastern coasts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows showery Low pressure to the South and then SE giving the risk of showers over the weekend over Southern Britain. Things then dry up for all as the Low pressure moves away NE over Europe and pressure builds across the UK with fine and sunny weather developing for the midweek period next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today is maintaining the pattern of High pressure to the North strengthening next week with Low pressure to the South throughout. Although overall a lot of dry and fine weather is likely especially over the North and NW the lower pressure to the South and SE at times continues to promote a strong risk of showers at times, heavy in places but even here some dry and fine, warm conditions look likely with the showers dying down somewhat towards the end of the run as High pressure ridges down from the North although this could be accompanied by a cooler and fresher feel by then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night has changed little in theme over recent days with the UK seemingly lying in nomansland pressure wise with showers possible in a lot of overall dry and bright conditions as no one pressure area high or low has overall control of the UK weather at day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains no strong desire for the models as a whole to remove Northern blocking High pressure over the next few weeks at least, leading to an East or NE flow being maintained with thundery showers in the South to remain the main theme between the models for some considerable time.  

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.0 pts to UKMO at 86.6 pts and GFS at 85.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 58.2 pts to 52.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 38.0 pts to 33.9 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS As I explained in detail yesterday and is mirrored again by this morning's output changes are slow and subtle across the UK over the next few weeks. High pressure remains locked well north of the UK with the UK lying in a position too far away for it to have overall control of our weather as Low pressure over nearby Europe continues to push some influence towards at least the Southern half of England and wales over the coming week. This means the North would see the best conditions away from the North sea coast with sunshine most prominent in the west of Scotland. Further South cloud will be more evident but under some warm and humid air imported from the South conditions will feel quite pleasant in the ample dry weather present but this could be punctuated by thundery showers at times too, more likely on some days than others. Then as we look into the second week there is some encouragement from some output that High pressure ridges across the UK removing the  shower risk from the South with many areas seeing a dry and fine spell. However, there seems little indication from the output of any meaningful sense of a pattern reset away from High latitude blocking so any changes are likely to result in more Low pressure to the South or SW rather than North or NW so a similar scenario of weather to that expected in the coming days could be replicated. This is a long way off though and it's important to say that there is no dramatic weather conditions expected over the next few weeks and for many a lot of the time could end up very pleasant so let's enjoy this late Spring pattern conditions that will continue to promote a strong growing season over the next few weeks.

Next Update Thursday May 26th 2016 from 09:00

Lol. talk about jumping the gun!

You could do worse than read Matt Hugo's updates re the summer prospects (available via a link from the homepage) that he has issued since early April. I'm not in any way trying to say that Matt will be proved right, but from what he says, the prospects for the summer are now looking somewhat better than they were back in late March/early April.