GFS 06z has the high holding on

00z to compare

Matt Hugo recently tweeted an indifferent start to June and TWO's home page today implies a 'possible' return to Atlantic driven systems from mid next week for the UK. In other words our default weather pattern is potentially likely to return. I therefore assume that in the short to medium term there is no real sign of ''sustained ' warmth or summery weather on the cards...

Nothing brilliant to be seen here - if anything, going backwards as we go into the second week of June as regards temp

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

and wetter into the bargain

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

Yes the northeast has had a particularly bad time of it, some 12C difference between, say, Newcastle and Glasgow in recent days!

For me in the south, 00Z GFS maintains a fairly decent picture from Sunday until Thursday, with decent warmth but always the chance of showers.

Interestingly the ensemble charts show that we are currently some 4C above average in terms of 850s but that really isn't translating on the ground with that northeast wind! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I don't see anything wrong with those charts.

Anyway, a return of the Atlantic would be most welcome for those of us in eastern areas - currently 11C with overcast skies. Absolutely dreadful. It's not just the bulk of England either but France has also been seeing appalling weather for the time of year with both countries stuck under a hard-to-shift layer of cloud. 

Almost anything must be an improvement on the past 48 hours round here.

Tell me about it. Worst May half term holiday weather I can remember. Central France is looking and feeling like North Wales.

Agreed. I must be looking at different charts to some  people. 

Hoping summer starts on Saturday with respectable temperatures returning for the forseeable future .

E.g 24c in the Vale of York instead of 11c. If that's not a significant improvement I don't know what is. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15617.gif

The most notable change to the weather that I've noticed of late is that going back to mid-March, any spells of atlantic driven weather we've had where I am have been few and far between, and fairly short-lived. The current pattern of HP somewhere to the north of the UK and lower pressure to the south seems to have been occuring on-and-off ever since mid-March.

One thing this pattern has resulted is a spell of much drier weather here, which was much needed after the washout of last winter.

Non-westerlies/northern blocking are not uncommon in Spring, particularly in April and early half of May, but this one has been running longer than normal. At least the NW has enjoyed some fine weather, normally rare in westerlies in Summer half of year. 

Now if only this was Winter.....

ECM not great tonight. A brief burst of summer, but quickly replaced by the dreaded Green circle of death as trough sets up slap bang over the UK, bring cold and unsettled weather back very quickly.

If this comes off, June will be a very disappointing affair.

It looks like a very repetitive pattern, not much rain and the outlook looks very unsettled for NW Europe upto mid-june 2016.

NE Europe and NW UK and parts of Iceland have seen plenty of abnormally warm and sunny conditions. 

Negative NAO, with forecast for more cold weather in Norway N NE side Europe including Finland et all.

Lows both in South parts of Mid Lattitudes and the Arctic Circle including Svalbard etc, NE Canada, around the Greenland High.

With areas of SE and far South Europe seeing their fair share of very warm sunshine, and it looks very warm Sunday to Wednesday and Thursday 5-9 June 2016, with very warm nice hot sunshine then 9th June UK NW Europe warm sector with active Thunderstorms followed by heavy rain and blustery showers and strong Cyclonic and SW flow.

North Atlantic High with belts of Low P's under and over it, SW and NE of North Atlantic Negative NA -ve Negative AO, cold NE Europe Svalbard early June Snow showers.😆🌩❄️😅😏.

Well, the focus of the whingeing and gloating will perform a volte -face as there is a BIG change in the pattern set for Tuesday.  The wind will switch from a northern or eastern quadrant to a southern or western quadrant, with changes in patterns of cloud, temperature and rainfall distribution as you would expect to develop for your location as we source tropical maritime and polar maritime (returning) air.

Note the wind roses for London shown here from 0z ens:

It clearly the GFS 00z run re-allignes and amplifies the Azores and Bartlett High revival with NW Atlantic Low to Arctic Low NE Europe PV NW Flow with Low's diving SE.

Looks like a more drier and sunnier outlook now drawn in GFS output, garbage in and garbage out.  Very similar to last years December Synoptical pattern.

Large parts of West and NW Europe now if GFS 00z run is correct will expect very warm and Sunny weather next week. Hugh change to Jetstream great waving SSW to North NE, pulling back SE away from West NW Europe over NE Europe.

Large flow from SW to NE in E and NE Central USA to West and N Greenland advecting warm air into NW Atlantic, cooler weather for North and NE USA I would imagine.🌤😀😎😆.

Edit: Looking at closely to 144 and 168 aka Weds/Thurs next week, It very warm and dry from Sat 4th onwards with UK under a warm High, cold Cyclonic NW flow hits NE far side Europe NE and the Mid Atlantic SW N Atlantic Spinning Stuck PV Low remain strong and then by Next week 10th June that then at 192hrs ECMWF not GFS affect UK with the warm High go back to Greenland and to Iceland.

Mid to East and NE USA and NW Atlantic Off SW Greenland Cool with West to East moving Low Pressure (further SSE when compared to the GFS at same time aka much better for changeable early to mid June weather, but for us our fine very warm spell from Sat. 4th to Thursday 9th June GFS and ECMWF still hold confident in forecasting this dry sunny outlook.  ECMWF on it's self show Low Pressure over UK by 10th June while it was showing breakdown on 8th June 2016 yesterday.  Svalbard and Arctic Sea Northeast Europe  cold NW or Westerly flow with chilly air again expect to dominate that area Inc. far NNE Atlantic NE Iceland as well. 

Readers of my website will of noticed that some of the detail in the services it provides have been temporarily suspended or modified while a new website is being built and this is true of the Model Analysis page. So from now until further notice just 'My Thoughts' will be published daily here. The new website should be online sometime in July and my regular daily analysis as you know it will return then. In the meantime here's my thoughts for today's crop of output.

The model output today still show a lot of slack pressure likely across the UK for another week at least as no one pressure area (be it low or high) has overall control of the UK weather. For the time being High pressure to the North and Low pressure over Europe maintains an East or NE feed of air across the UK bringing warmer air from Europe at the weekend and re-introducing thundery showers in places especially over the South and West. Then a Low pressure area over the Atlantic may hold the key to a move away from the current pattern as it drifts ENE towards the UK next week. With pressure then slowly rising over Europe some better conditions look likely there while the UK turns more unsettled with rain and showers in winds more from the SW than for some considerable time. While this process is undertaken some very warm air could waft over the South and East making any rain thundery in nature in places. GFS takes this Low pressure further to the North with the South and East seeing the warmest and driest weather of the two weeks in this evolution before it too joins the cooler unsettled theme later in Week 2. The GFS Clusters support the theme of the UK under an unsettled Atlantic feed of air with rain and showers at Day 14 with ECM's mean chart for Day10 illustrating something along similar lines.So all in all today a change looks on the way but we may have to be patient and for those who have basked in recent sunshine and warmth in the NW of the UK the change may not be so welcome as it looks like it could become their turn to see some rain and showers while the South and East have a better chance of seeing some warmth and dry periods between scattered thundery showers.

More jumping to the gun methinks.

There will still be more than half of June to go after the end of the ECM run, you know. This morning's run only goes as far as June 12th!

However. GFS is particularly impressive and much warmer so all is not lost. 

Thank you for your report Martin. Mac and wellies seem to be the order this month.. will look forward to the new site next month.  

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_207_mslp850.png?cb=41

GFS 06 continues its stance- from 3 days out to 10, warmth continues; next Friday's chart looks good this far out- nice little sausage high starting to develop.

And unfortunately a considerable outlier on the 0600 ensemble. Majority support a quicker return to 'normality' for this part of the world. Still  - outliers do occasionally win - its one version of the possibilities as the model see's it.