It's no different to winter - if that ends up as the synoptic pattern by some fluke, it's highly likely to be moderated as it comes into high-res.

(Bear in mind I'm always after cold conditions in summer, so I tend to keep an eye on the outcome of cold-looking forecasts!)

The Met/o 12z is very unsettled that's for sure.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Indeed - Deep FI so generally meaningless, especially as one run.

Unsettled next week but it remains to be seen how much rain I get (I need some!)

The GFS 12z op run is a cold outlier in the extended range

Yup, next week will be cooler for most and unsettled.  After that perhaps the ECM is showing signs of more promise in la la land?

ECM 12z ends with changeable westerly's.

So the 12z's have reversed the trend I was looking at towards more settled conditions and instead reverts to a poor June scenario. That coupled with what the longer term CFS v2 and BCC are showing makes it more likely to be a disappointing remainder of the month and early July but with hope for something a bit more settled later.
The fact that the Met Office long ranger is still resolutely sticking to a more settled outlook gives some hope as I was anticipating this to change dramatically towards more unsettled.
I have to see more runs before making a judgement but I will say it's certainly not looking very summer like for the foreseeable future.

Edit. Actually looking at the latter stages of the ECM 12z it does kind of back up the Met Office. Increasingly warmer and slightly more settled from the south so a more typical NW/SE split. All to play for.

away from the S of England, which would be warm and anticyclone influenced.  All academic as charts will be different come the day.

Yes down here in the south the ECM is not too bad. Could do with the HP nudging north though.

I agree! Temperatures won't be changing much here as it turns cooler Nationwide

Fax Chart is showing a lot of low pressure for a few days with rain about...

GFS 00Z precip rate shows a lot of Blue colour....

Its gone now.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Met/o 12z generally cool and unsettled.

ECM 12zs being consistent in bringing a strong ridge from the Azores by the end of next weekend, which would affect the weather in the South.  Cooler and mobile further north, if it is to be believed.

Warm and humid but unsettled with a trough pushing NE for most. You can clearly see the waving dips in pressure, fronts in there running NE.

You can clearly see that surely.

Anyway its unlikely to come off like that.

I can see the same chart as you but interpret it differently, that is all.

Looking at that chart, only Kent would be fairly dry and settled from that brief ridge.

Another day, more charts to interpret

The GFS appears to be suffering from huge run to run inconsistencies.  This morning it brings (for the end of next weekend) a stronger ridge from the Azores to the south than even last night's ECM.  Is this a chimera, or a signal that from next weekend a settled spell could embrace the south as we approach the summer solstice?

And the 0z ECM for Father's Day:

Hopefully a growing consensus for a few days of more settled weather from next weekend at least, particularly further South.

GFS 18Z   216 hrs Looks very good indeed if it happens.