This mornings ECM ens has high pressure over the UK for a few days it then remains over the south so with any rain restricted to the far north

Actually it shows rain crossing the UK in association with a trough.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

You've been looking at the ensemble means which although slightly less useless than they are in the winter are still useless when it comes to picking up troughs at longer range. Almost as useless as looking at a day 10 chart and thinking it'll come off as shown!

Is there not a moderation of predicted deterioration coming through generally? At one point the models seemed to be plopping lows on top of us with sustained cool air on the westerly edge; things currently still don't look settled and summery, but less consistently cool, at least in the south, despite a few days country wide with low night-time temps. Not suggesting there's a good prognosis- just a less bad one than a few days ago.

UKMO shows high pressure waiting in the wings at t144 just in time for the weekend

GFS for the start of the weekend

Is the Azores high finally waking up?

No D10 chart from ECM at the time of posting its update seems to have failed

Same as GFS post earlier.

0z GFS in a week's time or so for Father's Day starting to look potentially good for S and E and perhaps more widely, what will ECM say?

ECM as well really builds in the Azores high P for the weekend. Good output this morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

Lovely run from ECM high pressure pretty much in charge from t144

Yes- looking good on the GFS ens too, further out; and the BBC says 'pretty confident' about HP next weekend.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/36507778

EDIT 1436pm: Tomas S (same forecaster as on previous forecast) now saying it may be looking good for Saturday but Sunday into Monday it 'goes downhill' yet again. 06Z ens still looks good at 850s although the op takes a drop; bit of an outlier at this stage.

Slowly but surely, the models are coming into line and beginning to agree about perhaps an extended summery spell after we get this coming week out of the way.

Yes this means my write-up June scenario would be pure hogwash, and it's early days, but very encouraging signs across the board today.

GFS and ECM 12z are looking increasingly settled and hot after the weekend, and the HP appears to be becoming a blocking feature almost slap bang over the UK.

There would doubtless be high humidity and a threat of storms, but the models are looking (at last) a lot more June/July like.

Lets hope this 12z trend continues, because apart from one day this week, the 12z's have generally been showing this trend, so that is very promising as I consider 12z and 0z to be more reliable from a verification point of view.

The op is having a laugh; it was a cold near-outlier in the 06z; it's now the warm outlier in the 12z.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=719

Moompocalypes is cancelled then? 😄😋

Maybe. Possibly, fingers crossed  😊😊😊

Moompocalypse back on this morning then? ;-)

Not as far as I can see!

The Moompocalypse might be going back on hold with the low further north on the 12z

06z

06z

apart from a few spits and spots no rain around here all day and yet 10 miles or so inland a line of showers has given a pretty wet day across the weald where I have spent most of day , lovely evening on the coast . seen it all before here

Lovely medium term run from GFS12z op.  Ridging Azores High and here is a day 9/10 FI sample, that would please if it were to verify:

Much better from ECM with high pressure back after this mornings blip