theweatheroutlook

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Gavin D
21 June 2016 18:58:29

Decent update from ECM again just in time for Wimbo


Recm1201.gifRecm1441.gifRecm1681.gifRecm1921.gif


Could be far worse

LeedsLad123
21 June 2016 20:22:45


Haven't topped 25c here this year. Highest I've recorded is 23.9. So far this month have recorded 108mm of rain which is twice the monthly average though I accept that a lot of this came in one hour in an intense thunderstorm. It's just been a crap month. 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Christ.  We've had 39mm so far this month. Average for all of June here is 54mm so if we don't get any significant rain in the final week of June (and it doesn't look like we will), it will be a dry month. Haven't heard thunder at all since back in March/April. 


Will be a cloudy month though unfortunately, even if temperatures are average or above average.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
speckledjim
22 June 2016 07:33:38


 


Christ.  We've had 39mm so far this month. Average for all of June here is 54mm so if we don't get any significant rain in the final week of June (and it doesn't look like we will), it will be a dry month. Haven't heard thunder at all since back in March/April. 


Will be a cloudy month though unfortunately, even if temperatures are average or above average.


Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


Definitely been relatively dry up here and no sign of much in the offing for the next few days.....

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Saint Snow
22 June 2016 09:02:34


  We've had 39mm so far this month.


Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


 


This month, we've had more than that in an hour - twice 


Seriously, although I've not taken measurements, the level of water in buckets, etc (I'm doing some major ongoing work on my garden) has been ridiculous - talking 6" deep in a couple. A few cases of flash-flooding last week round here.


But overall it's been sunnier & warmer than average, with fewer 'rain days' than normal.


 


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
David M Porter
22 June 2016 09:11:14


 


 


This month, we've had more than that in an hour - twice 


Seriously, although I've not taken measurements, the level of water in buckets, etc (I'm doing some major ongoing work on my garden) has been ridiculous - talking 6" deep in a couple. A few cases of flash-flooding last week round here.


But overall it's been sunnier & warmer than average, with fewer 'rain days' than normal.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Same goes for here as well Saint.


A fairly typical westerly spell of weather coming up if the models have it right. No heatwave in the offing admittedly, but nothing too horrendous looking either. A few subtle hints in deepest GFS F1 of high pressure becoming more influential generally as we move into the early part of July, but too far out to be taken seriously right now.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Charmhills
22 June 2016 19:30:34

Very changeable set of runs tonight from the GFS/ECM/Met/o 12z.


A westerly outcome and fairly cool by the weekend for most and into next week.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
cultman1
22 June 2016 20:03:16
in other words for the time being at least, into early-mid July, summer is on hold countrywide with no real sign of any settled weather appearing anytime soon....
SJV
22 June 2016 20:54:31

in other words for the time being at least, into early-mid July, summer is on hold countrywide with no real sign of any settled weather appearing anytime soon....

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


No, as the average British summer isn't settled! June has been pretty typical so far for most. Warmer than average, and in some places wetter than average due to intense thunderstorms with those missing out ending up drier than average 


Summer is very much on, but those expecting never-ending settled weather need to remember where we are! Wishing for it on the other hand, well that's ok 


The output looks like a continuation of average late June/early July weather, with nothing disastrous on offer.

moomin75
22 June 2016 21:44:59


 


No, as the average British summer isn't settled! June has been pretty typical so far for most. Warmer than average, and in some places wetter than average due to intense thunderstorms with those missing out ending up drier than average 


Summer is very much on, but those expecting never-ending settled weather need to remember where we are! Wishing for it on the other hand, well that's ok 


The output looks like a continuation of average late June/early July weather, with nothing disastrous on offer.


Originally Posted by: SJV 

I'm sorry, but this certainly hasn't been an average British summer. Not here at least. This has been one of the dullest Junes I've ever recorded, and still to record 25c. Can't see this happening this summer. Yes, I am writing off summer 2016 completely. Yes I will get shot down, but my Long Range prediction is now for a continuation of what we have now for July and August.


 Today was horrendous. Constant steady DRIZZLE all day - feeling and looking like October again.


We had to cancel our SEVENTH cricket training session out of the last nine weeks.


In other words, it's rained pretty much non stop since the middle of May.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Deep Powder
22 June 2016 21:45:06
Is this period not typically referred to as the 'European Monsoon' anyway, so wet weather is not uncommon at this time of year?
Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)
Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!
SJV
22 June 2016 21:47:58


I'm sorry, but this certainly hasn't been an average British summer. Not here at least. This has been one of the dullest Junes I've ever recorded, and still to record 25c. Can't see this happening this summer. Yes, I am writing off summer 2016 completely. Yes I will get shot down, but my Long Range prediction is now for a continuation of what we have now for July and August.


 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I'm talking about the UK as a whole. I know there are exceptions and local variations - that's just how averages work- they can hide (in this case) huge variations. This is not uncommon to see 


I know you don't have high hopes for this summer. I respect your opinion, and bravery , for going for such a forecast. My gut feeling is this summer will end up ok - maybe a 6/10.  So far up here I'd give it a 7.

moomin75
22 June 2016 21:54:11


 


I'm talking about the UK as a whole. I know there are exceptions and local variations - that's just how averages work- they can hide (in this case) huge variations. This is not uncommon to see 


I know you don't have high hopes for this summer. I respect your opinion, and bravery , for going for such a forecast. My gut feeling is this summer will end up ok - maybe a 6/10.  So far up here I'd give it a 7.


Originally Posted by: SJV 

I genuinely can't give this summer (so far) any more than a 3/10. It's been bloody awful.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Whether Idle
22 June 2016 21:56:06


I genuinely can't give this summer (so far) any more than a 3/10. It's been bloody awful.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Keep your diatribe of negativity for other threads rather than model output discussion, thanks.


GEM keeps the high holding on at day 6:


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
LeedsLad123
22 June 2016 22:52:31

Re: sunshine, moomin is right. June is on course to be the dullest on record for many areas of England. Heathrow up to the 22nd has 71.1 hours of sun. 1981-2010 average is 205. Dullest on record was 118 hours in June 2012 and before than 130 hours in June 1990. So, it's possible that many places will have recorded their dullest June on record twice in 4 years, and both much duller than the previous record. It's like August 2010 all over again.


It's definitely been an exceptionally dull month, even more so when you consider the length of day.


At some other stations, Leeming (North Yorks) is on 76.7 hours, Rostherne (near Manchester Airport) is on 80.1 hours, Yeovilton in Somerset is the dullest place in the UK this month at 61.6 hours so far, and the sunniest place in the UK this month is Lerwick at 168.8 hours!!  Although even a sunny month in Lerwick is still dull by our standards.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Charmhills
23 June 2016 08:40:07

The models generally more unsettled this morning and fairly cool for most of next week.


Typical British summer.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
moomin75
23 June 2016 08:43:39


The models generally more unsettled this morning and fairly cool for most of next week.


Typical British summer.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

Yes. Summer is drifting away from us. I felt with my pattern matching methodology that this summer would be largely unsettled and relatively cool and I fear it's just going to deteriorate now. 

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Russwirral
23 June 2016 08:59:56


I genuinely can't give this summer (so far) any more than a 3/10. It's been bloody awful.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


On the contrary, this has been one of the best starts to summer that i can remember.


 


Ive actually seen the sun more times than ive seen rain through May/June.  Excellent stuff.


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
speckledjim
23 June 2016 09:00:53


Re: sunshine, moomin is right. June is on course to be the dullest on record for many areas of England. Heathrow up to the 22nd has 71.1 hours of sun. 1981-2010 average is 205. Dullest on record was 118 hours in June 2012 and before than 130 hours in June 1990. So, it's possible that many places will have recorded their dullest June on record twice in 4 years, and both much duller than the previous record. It's like August 2010 all over again.


It's definitely been an exceptionally dull month, even more so when you consider the length of day.


At some other stations, Leeming (North Yorks) is on 76.7 hours, Rostherne (near Manchester Airport) is on 80.1 hours, Yeovilton in Somerset is the dullest place in the UK this month at 61.6 hours so far, and the sunniest place in the UK this month is Lerwick at 168.8 hours!!  Although even a sunny month in Lerwick is still dull by our standards.


Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


 


where do you get these figures from? I'd like to bookmark it

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Saint Snow
23 June 2016 09:11:57


 


On the contrary, this has been one of the best starts to summer that i can remember.


 


Ive actually seen the sun more times than ive seen rain through May/June.  Excellent stuff.


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


Quite. I was hoping the 'high pressure to the E/NE (or even just to the N)' would be a recurring set-up this summer, give us in the west the best conditions for once, but it's not looking likely now.


Decent enough day so far today - sunshine & cloud, pleasant temps - but longer term the general set-up of LP to our N/NE is awful for NW England, feeding sh*te in on W'lies or NW'lies.


 


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Charmhills
23 June 2016 10:31:30

Hoping for a 'taste' of what we had 40yrs ago #1976 ? - Unlikely, outlook distinctly unsettled well into July


https://twitter.com/MattHugo81


A poor update from Matt for July.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
moomin75
23 June 2016 10:32:49


Hoping for a 'taste' of what we had 40yrs ago #1976 ? - Unlikely, outlook distinctly unsettled well into July


https://twitter.com/MattHugo81


A poor update from Matt for July.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

Not in the least bit surprised. Summer 2016 is one for the bin. I've said it since May and I stand by it. It will end up being wetter and cooler than average. Considerably so in the south. 

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
LeedsLad123
23 June 2016 12:06:13


Hoping for a 'taste' of what we had 40yrs ago #1976 ? - Unlikely, outlook distinctly unsettled well into July


https://twitter.com/MattHugo81


A poor update from Matt for July.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Sorry but he's so full of crap. His thoughts and updates change quicker than the wind direction. Useless.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
LeedsLad123
23 June 2016 12:07:34


 


 


where do you get these figures from? I'd like to bookmark it


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/CURR.html


Shows that, on the contrary, it hasn't even been a sunny month in North West England - Hawarden is on 106 hours which is well below normal. 

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Sevendust
23 June 2016 12:30:52


Not in the least bit surprised. Summer 2016 is one for the bin. I've said it since May and I stand by it. It will end up being wetter and cooler than average. Considerably so in the south. 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Nonsense - look at the CET

Rob K
23 June 2016 13:26:19


 


Nonsense - look at the CET


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


 


Quite right. Wetter perhaps, but certainly not cool. It has been a rather warm June in these parts, even when it has been wet it hasn't been cold.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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