You were correct about December, I'll give you that, although in my view that was more down to sheer luck than any particular forecasting skill.

That said, you were not as accurate with your thoughts about what would transpire after the turn of the year (IIRC you said that you thought it would turn noticeably colder and more wintry compared to December). We had no notable wintry spell in either January or February; both months were still mostly mild albeit less mild and less wet than December was.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Originally Posted by: idj20 

Aye - out to the 8th of July, GFS doesn't show a maximum temperature higher than 19C and rain on every single day. Totally normal - for Lerwick. :-)

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

19°C in Lerwick? Not a frequent occurrence even in summer.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I didn't say it was.. 

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

Sums it up exactly - especially this June.

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

I do take exception to you belittling my efforts David. Everyone has methods and mine is what I have outlined time and again.  Are you telling me that all the effort into researching historical charts and analogues is a complete waste of my time and I should give up and find another passion in life? Very disappointed if you are as you are generally very supportive of me. I am not going to bang on about my LRF. This is the exact reason I didn't actually post it this year because for all the hours I put into research I got fed up with being shouted down because it wasn't always what people wanted to see. I just call as I see and no one wants more to call spectaculars like James Madden does for example but I am not one for sensationalist hope casting. Never have been never will be. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Kieran, I'm sorry that you seem to think I was in any way belittling your efforts at forecasting but, as you'll have seen from previous comments from others posters in this thread, I haven't exactly been alone with my thoughts have I? What I cannot understand is how at times you seem to too readily dismiss any model output which in any way goes against your own predictions.

I have said above how you were correct about the first month of last winter (not even I will deny that) but were then less accurate with your thoughts about what would happen after the festive season. Surely if others have been stating similar opinions to those I have expressed about your predictions then maybe, just maybe, we have a point?

Trying to predict the weather for a full three weeks ahead, let alone three months, is a difficult enough task given our highly variable climate. For instance, remember the MetO's prediction of a "BBQ summer" in 2009 and how that summer turned out in reality? I rest my case.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

I certainly don't dismiss charts that go against my predictions. Indeed I have often commented on chinks of light and hope at the end of the tunnel, which flies in the face of my predictions. As I said, you are generally a big supporter of mine, and I am not going to bang on about an LRF which may or may not turn out to be close to the mark.

All I am saying is that these unsettled patterns prove very stubborn and hard to shift (as we found out in the winter, and again now). I believe in the steady deterioration as hinted at by some of the longer range models back in the spring, but I remain hopeful that this doesn't happen and that the second half of summer can improve.

I just call what I see on the models, which are unremittingly poor so far this "summer".

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Sometimes unsettled summer patterns can prove extremely hard to shift and can last for weeks and weeks; summer 2012 was probably the best recent case of that. However that summer was an exceptionally poor one and certainly not at all typical of a standard UK summer.

FWIW, the latter part of June 2013 wasn't wonderful, but look at what that July produced. It is easy for one to make assumptions about what our weather will likely do going forward, but with our climate sometimes one never knows. As I said before, sometimes our weather can change in a big way and very quickly. I've seen it happen often enough myself in my own neck of the woods.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Mooms your about as negative as a -27 over the Scottish snowfields in a severe winter. Lol 😂😂😂
Anyway, back to model world. Certainly looking wet at times into the weekend, perhaps some slight improvements in the longer term?

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

I think as the isobars slowly "open up" as we go into next week, things should at least slacken up somewhat in time. Doesn't mean a change to proper summer-like weather just yet, though.

Originally Posted by: idj20 

Generally utter gash although ECM a bit better

Originally Posted by: Sevendust