yeh more runs needed, but at last a little light at the end of the tunnel?

The updated MetO MRF today has removed the promised warmer, drier spell in the second half of July with the emphasis now on continued unsettled weather. Some indication that temperatures will recover closer to normal with a small chance of warm, humid weather affecting the south.

Reading between the lines the MetO are essentially writing off July so I would be wary of any improvement indicated on this mornings GFS.

Hopefully things will improve at the end of the month and into August but I will not be holding my breath.

Andy

North NE Europe and Wider N Atlantic Thermohaline Conveyor Belt  with Propogation of Several Low Pressure Systems Spinning about and then quickly run along From Canada NE USA to N Atlantic to NE Europe with a return to Low Pressure over UK Friday 8th July and cross UK by Friday night and Saturday- it will bring with it some heavy rain and Thundery showers and Strong Cyclonic winds, very warm SW flow 12z Friday onwards for UK.

By Saturday 9th, A double Low Pressure is indicated by GFS, and cooler more showery airmass will ensue.🌤 ⛈.

The UKMO and GFS 12z both agree with this situation...But Wednesday and Thursday look pretty warm humid and sunny for much of the U.K.😅😎.

Never mind if no one is looking this morning.  It looks very warm dry and sunny quite widely on Wednesday to Saturday, with the Far West and far N UK getting close to Cloudier and conditions but mostly dry Wednesday to Friday, but then this turn to Wet and cooler and breezy weather... Come 10th to 14th July with Low Pressure at this less accurate longer range getting in play across UK by Sunday 9th, which has been now delayed to this prediction today and yesterday from 12z, It looks like Azores High and warm sunny conditions dominate UK from Wednesday to Saturday 6th to 9th July. UKMO GFS and ECMWF also in agreement for this return to dry and settled early mid part of July after 5th, with Low Pressure maybe in charge come 10-14 July as GFS and ECMWF today 3rd July think of it as being possible. 😃😎.

Yes. Most of the 00z GEFS members for London show a climb in 850 hPa temps up to the seasonal average until 9 July. Mostly dry too, so can't complain. After that they suddenly scatter. The mean precipitation remains low with a small number of large spikes, so there must still be plenty of dry options there as well.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

That is what may well happen if Brian's TWO summer forecast in proved correct in the end. We can but hope!

Meantime, we shall just have to keep our eyes peeled to the models for any signs of improvement.

Yes we've had some shocking 'summer' months over the last ten years and this month looks like being another one.

The 2005 climate models that promised the UK a Mediterranean climate look like a sick joke now, it's like the 1950's and 60's without the cold winters!

Andy

Well if you live south of Yorkshire I think you'll be reasonably happy with the outlook, as high pressure is over, or at least hanging on to, the south for most of next week and beyond. It'll feel very pleasant in the sun with highs in the low to mid 20s.

Elsewhere we have to live with sunshine interspersed with rain showers as low pressure is never far from the NW. 

Typical NW/SE split on offer at the moment. Certainly not a washout and nothing out of the ordinary. Very typical summer weather coming up for the next 7-10 days. Temps around average or slightly above in the SE.

Could be a lot worse! 

Anything new further to my recent post, well- Today went upto 23 Celsius here in London after yesterday's 21, and both days similar amount of sunshine on the whole and with light SW breeze, a nice summer's day.

It looks quite cool and rainy on Monday over Ireland and the Republic as well as North and NE Wales Northern England Southern Scotland with a prolonged spell of heavy or moderate and very heavy rain, and for Saturday 9th the UK will see more heavy rain and Autumnal type Low Pressure with some drier slots in SE parts, where it will still be very warm before any rain arrives there. At T144 that is strong winds wrapped around it and heavy showers could also occur again.  More updates next 5 days for this setup.

🌤🌧😎.

Slight Difference for Saturday 9th comparing GFS vs ECMWF, the ECMWF has Central S SE UK with Azores High build with West and NW half UK under the Atlantic Low.

South and Central UK also warm and sunny with West and N UK under Westerly flow Sun. 10th, and A west east split on Monday with Low push south SW winds in West side. High ridges again over East and SE UK. Big difference against GFS at said time, so maybe next few days all three can figure out this confusion!.

Here's a rarity from me, a model comment in the model thread! LOL.

A reasonable week to come (for the south at least), but never particularly settling down across many parts.

However, this little bugger

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2281.gif

has been progged in three consecutive runs around the 216-240hr mark. Quite consistently showing a very very wet and very windy spell.

My reason for commenting though, is what follows makes this deep LP look like a potential game changer, a pattern changer if you will, as it really gets a move on and encourages the Azores HP to build properly behind it. There has been a bit of consistency there, and is it possible that this little beast of a low pressure could change the pattern into something much more summer like for the second half of July? Let's hope so!

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81

Low pressure returns from the 14th onwards to the 18th, so no sign of summer yet!

There is clearly Low Pressure this Week to the West and North UK at times, with Conditions a bit better with brief High Pressure riding occasionally for short periods in the South and SE areas UK.

At times the warmth decreases more especially in the a West and North At times and sometimes in the south as well, while in the Westernmost and Northern most parts there is the chance of some more light rain or showers.

All models are having to deal with exact location of Low Pressure and it often is able to nudge away the High pressure but sometimes there looks like a possibility but not a guarantee that though the South and SE will see short very warm occasionally but not always, the models cannot decide which days will be affected by Wet and windy Low Pressure, and the UKMO is somewhere stuck in between GFS and ECMWF at times and there clearly is difficulty in location and forecasteability of Low Pressure in the Last few days and today continues the bashing about and the result is the predictions cannot settle on very accurate day 6-10 outlook.  Saturday 9th looks like very warm dry sunny and humid, and this Wednesday looks fine with average temps and clear bright skies and sunny spells.

Indeed, Kieren.

What is interesting is that the 240hr chart on the latest ECM and GFS runs don't look vastly different. The only difference I can see between the respective charts is that GFS has that LP on the 14th positioned just to the NE of Scotland, whereas GFS has it sitting right over the east coast of England.

What we really need to properly break this unsettled spell is a fall of pressure over Greenland. High pressure setting up over that region is always bad news at this time of year.

Indeed and then the Greenland High disappears just in time for winter to give us similar temperatures and conditions to summer. 

What a vile climate we have. 

GFS 12z pretty uninspiring with an unsettled weekend and cool winds into the following week with any sign of high pressure reserved only for the far reaches of FI, and even then it's brief. Hopefully it's one of the worse options on the ensembles! 

Yeah, I have to completely  agree with your comment.  

The tempered mid latitude zonal flow with slightly above normal temps, with little in way of cold snaps if any in winter.

And with lengthy mild and cloudy zonal weather.

Agreed and it not a single time a model showing a week of decent summery weather which is normal with low 20's to high 20's at times. Removed the dead spring plants and tidied up the garden for the first time in 2016 after not able to do it from the rain and the ground still very damp, it need a month without rain just to recover to normal dryness levels at this time of the year. Never remove dead spring plants in July as I normally do that in May once last spring plants bluebells finished flowering.  Also I caught in the act of the London ensembles decided to pull down the uppers back to below average this week which is unlikely and will see low to mid 20's.

Signs of pressure falling over Greenland towards the seedy end of the GFS 12z, which will hopefully lead a more sustained spell of settled weather. 

After an unsettled and cool end to the week/beginning of next week, high pressure does repeatedly try to make inroads from the south.