theweatheroutlook

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Arcus
19 July 2016 10:16:00
29c at Northolt, LHR, London City AP, Middle Wallop at 11am
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
eddied
19 July 2016 10:19:50
Some curiously high figures coming in from more rural locations around the south, particularly on some of the apps. I don't know how they're generated? Computer models? I'm putting many of the higher declarations here down to warm brickwall syndrome, but even with that, it's very interesting how the distribution of the heat is working out today. With the 850s in the south so high form the beginning, the heat island effect isn't as pronounced it seems. I wonder if the gap will open up as the afternoon goes on though.

Either way, I'd say a 35C is looking likely somewhere this afternoon. Last July's race for the record was ruined by cloud, and not that a cloudy 37C isn't something to experience in it's own right, but the sky is gin clear out there this morning!
Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL

Winter 22/23
Days snow falling: 4
Days snow on ground:8
Max snow depths: 6cm (December 19th ish)

Summer 2022 max 39C on July 19th
Summer 2021 max: 32C on July 18th
Summer 2020 max: 36C on July 31st
Sevendust
19 July 2016 10:38:50
many stations around London at 29'c - Meanwhile a few at 32'c now in N.France including Caen
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2016 10:43:46
It's odd how patterns come round in clusters isn't it. Second year running we get a searing heatwave out if virtually nothing and hit what looks likes mid 30s from a standing start. Hopefully unlike last year this won't be the sum total of summer.

Last July things actually looked much better set up: weeks on end of record breaking temperatures on the near continent, very dry soils from Northern France downwards. Yet the best we got was the occasional waft into the far South East.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
19 July 2016 10:55:04

Already the hottest day of the year above 30c in quite a few locations.


 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
19 July 2016 11:09:25

Good opportunity to test Metoffice secret models (+ human input) vs public domain. 


Key difference Metoffice predicts 35C


All public domain models predict 32C (maximum) (channel islands excluded)


 


Who will be right? Honestly I don't know; and think it will be interesting to see.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Ally Pally Snowman
19 July 2016 11:13:16


Good opportunity to test Metoffice secret models (+ human input) vs public domain. 


Key difference Metoffice predicts 35C


All public domain models predict 32C (maximum) (channel islands excluded)


 


Who will be right? Honestly I don't know; and think it will be interesting to see.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


already 31c at Heathrow so 35c very much on Q.


 


 


 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
tallyho_83
19 July 2016 11:17:33
I don't post on here much - only if there is a cold wintry spell of snow or heat wave in summer!

I almost thought this would be the first summer in years that we don't hit the +30c mark somewhere in the UK.

Also I note that the BBC weather are upgrading this heat wave. First it was +32 maybe +33c Yesterday the forecast for today - is for temperatures to hit 34 or 35c and most recently saying we could hit 36 or even +37c in a few spots (which can't be ruled out).

I look forward to seeing the maximum recorded.
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Sevendust
19 July 2016 11:17:50


already 31c at Heathrow so 35c very much on Q.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Northolt 31'c


 Caen(NFr) 34'c

Polar Low
19 July 2016 11:20:52

like an oven here I just cant get that solar radiation but yes mighty hot here already.








































Temperature and Humidity
Temperature33.4 °CDew Point18.3 °C
Windchill33.4 °CHumidity41%
Heat Index34.6 °CApparent Temperature35.0 °C
Solar Radiation895 W/m²Evapotranspiration Today2.36 mm
THW Index0.0Temp change last hour+0.9 °C
Quantum
19 July 2016 11:28:50

Specifically:


Metoffice: 35C


ECMWF: 32C


AROME: 32C


EURO4: 32C (again this is the mets own model, is the UKV drastically different or is this a human input thing)


WRF: 32C


GEM: 32C


ARPEGE: 32C


NASAGEO5: 31C


FIM: 31C


ICON: 31C


NAVGEM: 30C


UKMO: 30C (obviously not their super duper hi res model but still; even their own medium term model not going for 35)


GFS: 30C (~32C when correcting for low temp bias)


CMA: 29C


CFS: 26C ()


 


FYI these are rounded down so something like 32.7C wouldn't be all that unsuprising.


So who will be right then, literally every model that I can get my grubby hands on, or the UKV+metoffice boffin human input?


If this was a bookie thing I'd be willing to give these odds. 


36C+ : 3/1


35C: 2/1


34C: 2/1


33C: 5/4


32C: 2/1


31C: 4/1


30C: 10/1


29C: 40/1


28C: 100/1


27C: 1000/1


26C: 9000/1

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Polar Low
19 July 2016 11:32:27

Indeed, crikey that is going some


Weather Station link


http://www.weatherhq.co.uk/weather-station/Northolt


 


 


 


 


 



 


Northolt 31'c


 Caen(NFr) 34'c


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

Quantum
19 July 2016 11:32:43

FYI arome has predicted >30C by now. It isn't wrong so far.



It just doesn't get much hotter.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
19 July 2016 11:35:26

Just for fun I'm going to back the models over the met; just because the support for a 32-33C maximun is overwhelmingly consistent (even among the mets own models). If we get 34C then its a case of split the difference.


So I'm calling 32.7C the maximun reached today.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Jiries
19 July 2016 11:36:14

Nearly 33C here now and at least is a starter course for me before I jet off to Jerusalem tomorrow early morning which mean to go to the airport at 23C minimum.  At least I won't miss the hottest day today before I go but I hope to see more heat in August and September.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2016 11:39:12
Madrid has been one step ahead all day so far. Touching 34 here now. Max was looking like 41 but now more likely to top out at 38.

Always fun watching a mini heatwave develop from afar.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Polar Low
19 July 2016 11:59:47

Crikey 33 given in a few spots now


overview United Kingdom Forecast maps

Polar Low
19 July 2016 12:03:39

Chelmsford mighty close behind put some extra shielding in





































Temperature32.8 °CDew Point17.8 °C
Windchill32.8 °CHumidity41%
Heat Index33.6 °CApparent Temperature34.2 °C
Solar Radiation904 W/m²Evapotranspiration Today2.36 mm
THW Index0.0Temp change last hour-0.2 °C
picturesareme
19 July 2016 12:07:32
Pushing towards 28C now ☀️

Expecting 30C to be reached before the day is over 😉
Ally Pally Snowman
19 July 2016 12:19:21

Hottest official station so far Brize Norton 32.2c


 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
19 July 2016 12:19:33

32.1C in London heathrow is the latest.


Look at the Arome



See that little 32C spot in the tarmac of heathrow?


Its amazing how accurate this has been. Honestly, I don't think we are gonna see 35C


 


EDIT: on closer examination AROME is going for slightly above 33C on heathrow in a couple of hours. So a little higher than the 32C I thought the AROME predicted; however this is assuming the weather station is in that sweat spot. And its still 2C off that 35C.


 


 


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Arcus
19 July 2016 12:28:52


Its amazing how accurate this has been. Honestly, I don't think we are gonna see 35C


 


EDIT: on closer examination AROME is going for slightly above 33C on heathrow in a couple of hours. So a little higher than the 32C I thought the AROME predicted; however this is assuming the weather station is in that sweat spot. And its still 2C off that 35C.


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Not accurate at all in other areas. Your 1pm AROME model map showed 24/25c widely in VoY. It currently 28 to 29c over much of this area. Similar story in NW England.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Quantum
19 July 2016 12:34:56


 


Not accurate at all in other areas. Your 1pm AROME model map showed 24/25c widely in VoY. It currently 28 to 29c over much of this area. Similar story in NW England.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Well thats a bit of an exageration; its showing 26/27C/28C in the 28C/29C area. But WRF handels that region better.



With the 29C visible in the voy.  

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
19 July 2016 12:36:34

The metoffice could well be right about this, but I do think that would be extraordinary in that it would prove literally every public domain model wrong including their own. The hot spell last July was well handled by these same models; with temperatures below and above the max that actually happened.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
eddied
19 July 2016 12:37:09
Yes - we could see somewhere random like Worcester steal the crown today. There's actually a bit of a (sea) breeze picked up here now in London which may be having its effect.
Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL

Winter 22/23
Days snow falling: 4
Days snow on ground:8
Max snow depths: 6cm (December 19th ish)

Summer 2022 max 39C on July 19th
Summer 2021 max: 32C on July 18th
Summer 2020 max: 36C on July 31st

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