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Solar Cycles
07 December 2016 16:47:11


 


So what you're saying is, the winter can be written off until at least January 16 when the mid-range models only extend out to December 23, as of today. Let's also remember that anything after 7 days is really quite unreliable, so that narrows the date down to December 14 for a reliable outlook. I'm sorry but I don't understand your logic.


Why is it, whenever we get a spell of mild weather in early December, do all the histrionics come out saying how winter is over and how snow will never happen again in this country?


Originally Posted by: Bolty 

What I'm saying is the longer term signals are not conducive for cold and these don't just turn at the flick of a switch, we will need some sort of Stratospheric help here and as it stands there's none forecasts this month. This isn't some wrist slitting winters over posts but a analysis  of where we are at this moment in time, sure things can change rapidly such as a SSW event but none are forecasts within the foreseeable so mid January is fair punt for changes aloft.

springsunshine
07 December 2016 18:07:52


What I'm saying is the longer term signals are not conducive for cold and these don't just turn at the flick of a switch, we will need some sort of Stratospheric help here and as it stands there's none forecasts this month. This isn't some wrist slitting winters over posts but a analysis  of where we are at this moment in time, sure things can change rapidly such as a SSW event but none are forecasts within the foreseeable so mid January is fair punt for changes aloft.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


Ive a feeling you are going to be proven correct,sc, the signal`s do not look good for cold in the short to medium term and imo the first two weeks of January will determine the rest of the winter.December is looking like being mild and dry and probably warmer than November.

johncs2016
07 December 2016 18:12:09


Well of course you have just as much chance of being right as you do of being wrong so worth a punt I guess (although, with respect your methodology sounds a bit suspect to me), but to make such a statement on the 7th day of meterological winter really does beggar belief....


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


 


Yes, but I'm not actually saying that winter IS over as a lot of people on this thread seem to be doing. All I'm saying is that I wouldn't be surprised if that turned out to be the case which is completely different.


 

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
llamedos
07 December 2016 18:27:27


 


 


Yes, but I'm not actually saying that winter IS over as a lot of people on this thread seem to be doing. All I'm saying is that I wouldn't be surprised if that turned out to be the case which is completely different.


 


Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

My mistake; I didn't fully grasp your point. If you had broken that post into paragraphs it would have been easier to understand.......

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
johncs2016
07 December 2016 18:41:43


My mistake; I didn't fully grasp your point. If you had broken that post into paragraphs it would have been easier to understand.......


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


I have now edited the post in question so that hopefully, it will now be a lot easier to understand. At this point in time, I will apologise for anybody who was confused by what I had written, but I will add that I have been previously been diagnosed with Asperger's Syndrome which means that I have to work much harder than others in order to get my point across clearly, and don't always manage to do very well with that right away.


 

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Whether Idle
07 December 2016 19:26:12

CFS chart for December 25th: ...My point being...its as likely as anything else.  This thread is a good laugh, how the hell people think they can really tell what the weather will be doing come December 21st on December 7th is completely beyond me.  Laughable hysteria from some quarters.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
richardabdn
07 December 2016 20:23:35

The horror show rolls on. Absolutely nothing like what these type of synoptics would have brought in the past. Even if there hadn’t been much in the way of direct sunshine the skies would have been bright, with light cloud, not the doom ridden dark and depressing muck there was today for the 7th day out of 8. Nasty unpleasant wind too that, along with the dark skies, means it didn’t feel mild. It’s just like West of Scotland weather. Utterly vile and soul destroying.


Yet again as always seems to be the case nowadays the temperature continues to rise after sunset and the highest temperature gets recorded in the pitch black. Utter nonsense 


 

Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
07 December 2016 20:52:26


The horror show rolls on. Absolutely nothing like what these type of synoptics would have brought in the past. Even if there hadn’t been much in the way of direct sunshine the skies would have been bright, with light cloud, not the doom ridden dark and depressing muck there was today for the 7th day out of 8. Nasty unpleasant wind too that, along with the dark skies, means it didn’t feel mild. It’s just like West of Scotland weather. Utterly vile and soul destroying.


Originally Posted by: richardabdn 


Exactly what you were saying all summer long, you never change :)



Yet again as always seems to be the case nowadays the temperature continues to rise after sunset and the highest temperature gets recorded in the pitch black. Utter nonsense 


 

Originally Posted by: richardabdn 


Not so. Rising temperatures during the night in winter as the airmass changes have always been a pretty common event.

Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Arcus
07 December 2016 22:10:16


 


Exactly what you were saying all summer long, you never change :)


 


Originally Posted by: Col 


...and we don't want him to.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
tallyho_83
08 December 2016 00:57:51


The horror show rolls on. Absolutely nothing like what these type of synoptics would have brought in the past. Even if there hadn’t been much in the way of direct sunshine the skies would have been bright, with light cloud, not the doom ridden dark and depressing muck there was today for the 7th day out of 8. Nasty unpleasant wind too that, along with the dark skies, means it didn’t feel mild. It’s just like West of Scotland weather. Utterly vile and soul destroying.


Yet again as always seems to be the case nowadays the temperature continues to rise after sunset and the highest temperature gets recorded in the pitch black. Utter nonsense 


 


Originally Posted by: richardabdn 


Yes I HEAR you! It was 13.3c of a high today only for it to rise during the night now at 14c here in central Exeter. Very mild and damp! YUCK.

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


springsunshine
08 December 2016 05:12:23


 


Yes I HEAR you! It was 13.3c of a high today only for it to rise during the night now at 14c here in central Exeter. Very mild and damp! YUCK.


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Feels like we`ve gone back in time to December 2015

Whether Idle
08 December 2016 05:59:48

Received a letter from my gas supplier with this piece copied: Suffice to say I will be calling them today to object.  This is where forecasts, and their accuracy, is at the sharp end of mattering


As part of our Direct Debit Review process please find attached your updated Budget Billing Plan instalments schedule for the coming months, as it has currently been re-arranged.

The present adverse weather conditions and the predicted winter forecast, indicate a much higher energy consumption in comparison to the previous two mild
winter periods.Your new Direct Debit schedule would reflect the rise in your consumption of energy and prevent a high debt at the end of your contract period.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Retron
08 December 2016 06:12:41


Received a letter from my gas supplier with this piece copied: Suffice to say I will be calling them today to object.  This is where forecasts, and their accuracy, is at the sharp end of mattering


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Sounds like a nice little bit of profiteering going on there - all wrapped up in a way which makes it sounds like it benefits you, not them.


(It seems a bit old-fashioned though, I'd assumed all suppliers changed the bill each month based on what you actually used, not what they think you'll use! I know First Utility, whose account I inhetited from my dad, bill a variable amount each month.)

Leysdown, north Kent
Justin W
08 December 2016 06:31:47


Received a letter from my gas supplier with this piece copied: Suffice to say I will be calling them today to object.  This is where forecasts, and their accuracy, is at the sharp end of mattering


As part of our Direct Debit Review process please find attached your updated Budget Billing Plan instalments schedule for the coming months, as it has currently been re-arranged.

The present adverse weather conditions and the predicted winter forecast, indicate a much higher energy consumption in comparison to the previous two mild
winter periods.Your new Direct Debit schedule would reflect the rise in your consumption of energy and prevent a high debt at the end of your contract period.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Make sure you do, Phil. We had the same shysterism from Good Energy which resulted in it holding on to close to £500 of credit. It was only when I threatened them that they refunded the credit and grudgingly started to bring our DD down. This is still ongoing - we are still paying too much each month. I would tell your supplier you're going to move if they do this.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
idj20
08 December 2016 09:33:38


As part of our Direct Debit Review process please find attached your updated Budget Billing Plan instalments schedule for the coming months, as it has currently been re-arranged.

The present adverse weather conditions and the predicted winter forecast, indicate a much higher energy consumption in comparison to the previous two mild
winter periods.Your new Direct Debit schedule would reflect the rise in your consumption of energy and prevent a high debt at the end of your contract period.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 



Now THAT's what I call getting ahead of themselves. Sounds like they have fallen for the James Madden/Exacta page effect.

I pay my energy bills manually every month. I get an email reminder from BG to send them the latest leccy & gas meter readings, then a couple of days later they email me the bill and I quickly pay them off online using a visa card there and then. This way I pay for exactly what I used up, not a penny more or a penny less and have used this system for over 7 years now with very little issues.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Saint Snow
08 December 2016 10:01:39

 


Sounds like a nice little bit of profiteering going on there - all wrapped up in a way which makes it sounds like it benefits you, not them.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


Got it in one.


These energy companies are greedy shysters.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Brian Gaze
08 December 2016 17:08:29

Was in Tring this afternoon. Was a very pleasant October day....and then I saw the Xmas lights. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
idj20
08 December 2016 17:25:12


Was in Tring this afternoon. Was a very pleasant October day....and then I saw the Xmas lights. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



I think that might be "Bren" Brendan Jones.  After all, Tring is his home town.

Folkestone Harbour. 
tallyho_83
08 December 2016 19:13:24
Overcast damp and a little slippery and just yucky!! Muggy and mild at 15.5c - so unseasonal! Horrible.
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Brian Gaze
08 December 2016 19:13:31




I think that might be "Bren" Brendan Jones.  After all, Tring is his home town.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


 I didn't know that. I'm a member of the Golden Toad so am often in Tring.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rochelle
09 December 2016 05:04:59
http://www.pinewoodhealth.ca/blog/general-category/the-8-benefits-of-cold-weather-walking-according-to-a-toronto-naturopath/  ) that walking in the cold weather can have some wonderful health benefits. We are celebrating our wedding anniversary on Christmas too.
Happy holiday season guys! May your days be filled with joy and happiness.

Gavin D
09 December 2016 09:16:55
At least my heating is getting a rest now

Start to get next years daffs poking through the ground now
idj20
09 December 2016 09:41:32

At least my heating is getting a rest now

Start to get next years daffs poking through the ground now

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



I've got mine on this morning to shift this initial clammy feeling indoors. I think when it's 11 C and 90% humidity with no sun outside and an onshore breeze, that seems to "feel" colder than, say, 7 C with lower humidity, calm air and winter sunshine.

Folkestone Harbour. 
tallyho_83
09 December 2016 10:11:14
14C AND mild - light winds if any! So unseasonably warm,.

I thought last December broke records but this December looks like it will top it.
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Rob K
09 December 2016 12:58:48

14C AND mild - light winds if any! So unseasonably warm,.

I thought last December broke records but this December looks like it will top it.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


What on Earth are you talking about? December 2015 was the warmest CET December in history by a country mile. There is not a hope in hell of this month coming anywhere near it.


 


That said it was pleasantly warm this morning for my bike ride to the station, quite welcome after some very cold starts last week. Though strangely when I got to the station there was an announcement over the tannoy warning of "slippery conditions due to the current cold weather" 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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