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Phil G
13 January 2017 17:43:07


On balance over the last 7 days inclusive of the ECM approximately 90% have gone on to progress to a UK High/Rex block in the medium term. It was using statistics that led me to my record mild December 2015 call. It's certainly not an infallible method but is as accurate as any other method in my view.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Did you make a call on December 2015. First I have heard of it!


For goodness sake people make Long Range Guesses and sometimes they are right and sometimes they are wrong, often the latter. Yes you apparently have been wrong this season so welcome to mortality. Your stats ending correctly last year WERE A GUESS, you were lucky. That's the real world mate.

moomin75
13 January 2017 17:45:24


 


I understand your methodology I just think as new information comes in, using averages from days old data would dilute the accuracy of any forecast especially in an evolving situation. What will you think if the ECM op run strengthens the trend towards a Greenland High? Would you just add it to the mixing rather than seeing a trend over recent days?


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I will add it to the mixing and the 12z from this time last Friday will be removed. It's as good a method as any in my view. 😁😀 It's all pure conjecture and guesswork.


My LRF methodology is very similar but uses archived runs from a 30 year period and pattern matches.


They've had varying degrees of success too. It's all good fun and takes me ages but I still love doing it.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gooner
13 January 2017 17:46:52


">http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=224&ext=1&y=247&run=12&runpara=0

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


Yes very uninspiring output across the board tonight . At least I've seen some snow fall and settle but it's not enough to satisfy.  Hopefully thats not it but it's not looking good in fact quite depressing tonight. It looked so promising a couple of days ago can't believe how poor it looks now.


 



No doubt you are looking well into FI ?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Phil G
13 January 2017 17:47:00


poor UKMO and GFS, ens as well. The easterly is dead. High seems to be trending further south and west


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Should read "UKMO and GFS SUGGEST the easterly is dead".


Let's see what ECM has to say about it.

Gavin D
13 January 2017 17:47:31

Full ens


moomin75
13 January 2017 17:48:16


 


Did you make a call on December 2015. First I have heard of it!


For goodness sake people make Long Range Guesses and sometimes they are right and sometimes they are wrong, often the latter. Yes you apparently have been wrong this season so welcome to mortality. Your stats ending correctly last year WERE A GUESS, you were lucky. That's the real world mate.


Originally Posted by: Phil G 

Which I have said all along. But won't stop me trying and using the methodology that I do. You don't seem to understand that passion and it would be very sad if I didn't at least get something right. As I said unlike some people I don't just go to ground if I'm wrong. I'm here to be shot down as and when.


If I'm brutally honest I have called seasons generally correct on just over 50% of the time so yes that proves it's probably sheer luck but in my view with the chaos of the atmosphere it's not more infallible than any other method. 😀

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
moomin75
13 January 2017 17:50:14


 


 


Yes very uninspiring output across the board tonight . At least I've seen some snow fall and settle but it's not enough to satisfy.  Hopefully thats not it but it's not looking good in fact quite depressing tonight. It looked so promising a couple of days ago can't believe how poor it looks now.


 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Marcus. I didn't realise when those four flakes on THAT chart were over my house that was actually THE TOTAL amount of flakes that would fall. 😂😂😂

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
13 January 2017 17:51:59


 


 


Yes very uninspiring output across the board tonight . At least I've seen some snow fall and settle but it's not enough to satisfy.  Hopefully thats not it but it's not looking good in fact quite depressing tonight. It looked so promising a couple of days ago can't believe how poor it looks now.


 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


No doubt you are looking well into FI ?



 


I'm not writing off winter just feel we've been very unlucky,. We had 2cm snow here it's 95% gone already a very poor cold spell and i cant see another one anytime soon . I admire your optimism this winter but mine has run out today.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
fairweather
13 January 2017 17:59:50


 


The key difference between ECM and GFS last weekend and early this week as I recall, was that ECM seemed to be more keen on the idea of a pressure build over the UK to some degree, followed by a rise in pressure to the east. Maybe my recollection is letting me down, but I don't remember GFS buying into the same scenario much if at all during the same period; it's solution was a fall in pressure to the NW and a westerly or south-westerly airstream becoming established early next week. OK, it didn't at any time go for a return to zonality as such, but it seemed less keen on the idea of HP being dominant over the UK and certainly didn't seem interested in any notion of an easterly.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Yes - I agree, that was more like it. As I said after this initial short mild spell coming up the GFS ensembles were completely scattered from the 16th - no clear easterly and I do recall writing it was anybody's guess.  Of course it was the ensembles I had been remarking on not individual op runs ;-)

S.Essex, 42m ASL
GIBBY
13 January 2017 18:00:20

I really have kept my feet on the ground over this cold spell and the way the models have portrayed the extension of it into an easterly next week. I have never really bought into it fully because of the stubborn Jet flow to the North of the predicted High pressure belt early next week. From experience these nearly always sink Scandinavian High pressure areas South in the models and to date that is what has happened. The mean charts which I know many hate particularly from ECM has never shown such a strong East feed at Day 10 with the more likely verification being a MLB near the UK or from an extension of High pressure over Central Europe.


...and i am going to defend Moomin here. Using the means day to day and correlating a trend has always been the best way to go and I acknowledge Moomin for his reasoning as from what he says above he is correlating trends from current and recent history charts. It does work much of the time and blends all the extreme scenarios shown in the perturbations be them cold or mild into a trend which is what longer range charts are supposed to be used for rather than actual details. This probably accounts for his muted excitement about individual (usually extreme cold) charts shown and reflects a view using all the mean data at his disposal.

Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset


Look up my New Facebook Weather Page  for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen
Polar Low
13 January 2017 18:03:18

Shoot me at half mask Martin



I really have kept my feet on the ground over this cold spell and the way the models have portrayed the extension of it into an easterly next week. I have never really bought into it fully because of the stubborn Jet flow to the North of the predicted High pressure belt early next week. From experience these nearly always sink Scandinavian High pressure areas South in the models and to date that is what has happened. The mean charts which I know many hate particularly from ECM has never shown such a strong East feed at Day 10 with the more likely verification being a MLB near the UK or from an extension of High pressure over Central Europe.


...and i am going to defend Moomin here. Using the means day to day and correlating a trend has always been the best way to go and I acknowledge Moomin for his reasoning as from what he says above he is correlating trends from current and recent history charts. It does work much of the time and blends all the extreme scenarios shown in the perturbations be them cold or mild into a trend which is what longer range charts are supposed to be used for rather than actual details. This probably accounts for his muted excitement about individual (usually extreme cold) charts shown and reflects a view using all the mean data at his disposal.


Originally Posted by: GIBBY 

Polar Low
13 January 2017 18:04:28

Crickey Allyl its only been a couple of runs we all know how quickly things can change.


We don’t need Andy W to tell us winter is over just yet, chin up!!


 


 


 


 


 



 


No doubt you are looking well into FI ?


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


I'm not writing off winter just feel we've been very unlucky,. We had 2cm snow here it's 95% gone already a very poor cold spell and i cant see another one anytime soon . I admire your optimism this winter but mine has run out today.


 


Rob K
13 January 2017 18:07:07


Full ens



Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


 


That's a pretty major flip. Signs are that ECM ens are wobbling too, so I suspect we are starting to see a pattern change being signalled. It remains to be seen what the pattern will change to though!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
doctormog
13 January 2017 18:10:35


I really have kept my feet on the ground over this cold spell and the way the models have portrayed the extension of it into an easterly next week. I have never really bought into it fully because of the stubborn Jet flow to the North of the predicted High pressure belt early next week. From experience these nearly always sink Scandinavian High pressure areas South in the models and to date that is what has happened. The mean charts which I know many hate particularly from ECM has never shown such a strong East feed at Day 10 with the more likely verification being a MLB near the UK or from an extension of High pressure over Central Europe.


...and i am going to defend Moomin here. Using the means day to day and correlating a trend has always been the best way to go and I acknowledge Moomin for his reasoning as from what he says above he is correlating trends from current and recent history charts. It does work much of the time and blends all the extreme scenarios shown in the perturbations be them cold or mild into a trend which is what longer range charts are supposed to be used for rather than actual details. This probably accounts for his muted excitement about individual (usually extreme cold) charts shown and reflects a view using all the mean data at his disposal.


Originally Posted by: GIBBY 


Using a mean is one thing Martin but using a mean of data up to 7 days old is not as reliable. Things become rapidly out of date in changing situations - data from last weekend will not help.


Use the daily means if you want and look at the trends and that will give you an indication of the way things are moving. Use a mean of all the data over 7 days and nine times out of ten you will get a meaningless signal of a muted soup of outcomes. That is statistics.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Polar Low
13 January 2017 18:12:32

Indeed M ive lost count how many times we have spoken about it



 


Using a mean is one thing Martin but using a mean of data up to 7 days old is not as reliable. Things become rapidly out of date in changing situations - data from last weekend will not help.


Use the daily means if you want and looks T the trends and that will give you an indication of the way things are moving. Use a mean of all the data over 7 days and nine times out of ten you will get a meaningless signal of a muted soup of outcomes. That is statistics.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Ally Pally Snowman
13 January 2017 18:16:56


Crickey Allyl its only been a couple of runs we all know how quickly things can change.


We don’t need Andy W to tell us winter is over just yet, chin up!!


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


I'm not writing off winter just feel we've been very unlucky,. We had 2cm snow here it's 95% gone already a very poor cold spell and i cant see another one anytime soon . I admire your optimism this winter but mine has run out today.


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 



 


We need a big turnaround in the models though seems to have been going in one direction recently. Fingers crossed for a cold ecm tonight. 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Hippydave
13 January 2017 18:26:10

Thought it might be worth sticking the GFS T2M temps up for London:



Other than a brief blip it's essentially at or below 5c maxes through to 24th Jan. Nothing earth shattering but it's a chilly and settled outlook with plenty of frost about if skies are clear.


I also don't see the depression when there's charts like this being churned out (both by ECM and GFS):



That's a few tweaks away from being stunning imo. Plenty of promise in FI and still some wintry weather around for some in the immediate. It's not a classic cold spell but it's certainly seasonal

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
doctormog
13 January 2017 18:32:34
A good summary Dave. I think your last sentence sums things up very nicely.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
SEMerc
13 January 2017 18:38:23

At least it will be dry. Not a lot else to comment on really.


Except the high is much more flattened out.


Rob K
13 January 2017 18:39:15


 


Consistent in synoptics but the 850s are a good 5C higher than in recent runs down here (although may be colder in the north!)

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
SEMerc
13 January 2017 18:41:31

This 'easterly' is like death by a thousand cuts in terms of potency.

Gooner
13 January 2017 18:42:23


 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Marcus. I didn't realise when those four flakes on THAT chart were over my house that was actually THE TOTAL amount of flakes that would fall. 😂😂😂



LOL


That's not my post mate


Been in Brum with your mate Mark overnight, we had a dusting then about an hours worth of falling snow , Banbury also had a dusting this morning


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


David M Porter
13 January 2017 18:43:51

It was this run last Friday night when ECM first suggested the possiblity of high pressure taking over again from the start of the coming week.


IMO, it is very difficult to find any faults with the way it has performed at all. It has, of nothing else, at least been pretty consistent in the past 7 days.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
tallyho_83
13 January 2017 18:45:59

tweet from MATT Hugo:


Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81 14m14 minutes ago



12Z EC holding the main centre of gravity of the high next week further south meaning the colder continental flow is less likely too...


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gooner
13 January 2017 18:46:40


It was this run last Friday night when ECM first suggested the possiblity of high pressure taking over again from the start of the coming week.


IMO, it is very difficult to find any faults with the way it has performed at all. It has, of nothing else, at least been pretty consistent in the past 7 days.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


I agree , its stuck to its guns and done well


A cold chart for MBY regardless of 850's


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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