It has David, and the changes have been steady clear evolutions from one scenario to the next. As Rob says the t850s have moderated for the coming days but at the same time the focus seems to have to higher pressure in the Greenland region.

 Edit: I await the 240hr ECM op run chart with some interest 

T+216.

Are we going to get a massive high from Greenland to Europe? Or will that energy coming out of Canada scupper it?

we are better off sinking this high ASAP now and perhaps looking for GH

Very disappointing and shows how the odds are always stacked against an easterly

Big deal

Matt comments on every single run

T+240

Nuff said.

One for the bin (because I don't like it)

And yes at 240 a west based -ve NAO does seem to be setting up. NAO is rapidly heading through the floor there but not in the right place for the UK apart from northern Scotland!

Yes that is definitely a possibility. I'm just intrigued by the changes and developments in the medium term. They may come to nothing, but on the other hand...

oh dear, what a mess! Lets hope there are high levels of Shannon Entropy!

P.S. it's ten days away and to be taken with lots of salt.

Well the first bit has been done. As for the second bit, I entirely agree with you.

Nail on the head Beast - the 12z runs from GFS and ECM are all over the place by the time they get to t+192 and I think both can be safely binned, since they are clearly clueless.

Something is up and the picture beyond t+144 will take a while to resolve itself.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 18 Jan 2017 to Friday 27 Jan 2017:

It will be largely cloudy on Wednesday, with patchy rain in places, and colder air is expected to persist across the south. Although it will also turn drier and sunnier in the southeast in particular, north-western parts will remain cloudier and milder. Thereafter, many areas will be largely dry and fine with an increasing risk of frost and fog, with any rain and hill snow restricted to the northwest. It will feel very cold for many, especially in the south and east, with sleet or snow showers possible across eastern coastal parts. Towards the end of the period, southern areas are likely to stay largely dry but it is expected to become cloudy for most

Wrong thread but just to put some perspective on things todays update from the Met as far as two weeks out...........its hardly a bad update , cold and wintry PPN the further South and East you are .............remember last years rubbish

My hunch is that the easterly will be back on tomorrow. I've seen these weird wobbles at T72 - T84 before. I'm still going for it from as early as Monday. I will even go so far as to say the mild air won't reach the far SE and attention should be drawn to a snow event on Sunday before the front pushes back west.

There..that's confidence for ya. 

They are very similiar to the last few runs in the broad general pattern, especially the ECM.

Interesting flicking through the 12z GFS just how little oomph the jet has for our neck of the woods later on:

There's really not a lot going on at all until right at the end of the run where it looks like a stronger pulse might head out towards us.

Would suggest fairly slow changes in the weather, so what you get might last a while.

That ECM 240 chart also looks okay to me - very cold for Scotland and again not far off being very good for all of us, with a nudge and some luck a day or two down the line.

i admire your optimism and I sincerely hope you're right. I must say that the switch on the 12z was quite dramatic despite the recent trend for the high pressure system to sink  slightly further south. Like a fool I will keep on watching the charts until the bitter end!

Just out of curiosity do the Met Office pay well?

Whilst you are looking for your pay slip can you post the set of charts that  brings you to that conclusion ?

The beeb suggested things cooling down again next week with weather from the east, though it seems sometimes their broadcasts haven't picked up the latest rounds of data.

You would hope they do provide the freshest information, so with that in mind who would bet against a flip back. Plenty of flipping lately.