Yes we would all like snow falling but the next best thing is low day time temps and frosts at night, the 18z GFS certainly brings that as does the ECM , it could well be quite a frosty period so get your de-icers ready

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2017011318/gens-0-1-240.png

Control run is one for Steve!

I can't imagine this comment is aimed at me but it is difficult to see who else it is aimed at. I have totally and politely put forward a case which I accept is not totally in line with that of some of others. But nevertheless I have argued the case that I disagree that GFS has "flip flopped" and "wanted to bring back the Atlantic" and whilst I gave a detailed assessment of the GFS ensembles at the time which still hold true nobody is prepared to check back at those posts but keeps on with this. I'll say it one more time - I am not talking about the week after next. The GFS has always been completely uncertain about that with a spread from +5 to -5. And yes as I said after the 16th it did start to toy with ECM idea of an Easterly and that might still happen. Why the vitriol? Not been on here long but it is becoming very clear that anything that doesn't follow a certain line, right or wrong, is deemed a "wind up". 

No wasn't your posts Fairweather. Just skipped past yours.

As typically happens, after switching violently away from cold 850s down here yesterday evening, the GEFS has flipped back towards a colder outlook.

Here are the last 4 ensemble runs for London, showing the switch (6z/12z/18z/0z). The T2M charts have shown much less of a flip, FWIW, as it's a low-level cold pool involved.

Cold and frosty as far as the eye can see. 

Better than a kick in the balls.

I totally agree cold and frosty , I'm happy with that

Simply the HP to the east just about forms on Tuesday (below)and then pulls way east by Saturday.The models are then totally at sea with what follows.

High pressure loves the UK, according to the GFS:

Whilst the GFS keeps toying with charts like the above and ECM keeps some interest longer term too I'll remain cautiously optimistic.

As Darren has mentioned the GFS 850s in the ens have trended slightly colder again, with a gentle nudge down of the T2M temps for London too. I dare say the above chart would bring some crisp wintry weather for many with a few light wintry showers for the coasts.

ECMs FI offering is intriguing too:-

That'd be snowy for high ground in the far North/Scotland imo and it's within a nudge of being a very nice chart indeed - little bit of a Southwards correction, more cold air to suck in to the LP's and bingo. Yup it's FI but it's a consistent signal at the moment - our sceuro HP declines with a small cell building to our North with not a lot of oomph in the Atlantic.

For us South Easterners it's not the carrot of a proper Easterly that ECM had been dangling but it's a damn sight better than nout and there's plenty of opportunity for cold around (which I realise may be this winters epitaph!).

This is a very troubling period for the forecasters. Since I am in Copenhagen at the moment, I am following the local weather service, DMI. Yesterday, they had us in the freezer for all of next week, this morning they have it getting mild from Tuesday night with local temperature at a constant 5 degrees day and night thereafter. In short, it is currently a nightmare for forecasters, even in the short term and if they follow every twist of the model output, members of the public will wonder why they are being so "useless" (not my view - comments from people I know here - how can they so dramtically change their short term forecast at such short notice?).

Naturally, the subtlety is lost on the public - that an adjustment of a mere 100 miles in the central pressure location to the north or south can have massive local effects with the current synoptics. That is so unlike a Zonal setup, where forecasts can be depressingly reliable out to t+144 and beyond. Zzzzzzz.

As Steve Murr mentions in his post last night a ssw is taking place  around the 28th January . What this will lead to who knows but it's an extra roll of the dice for coldies. Maybe February is the month

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=336&mode=10&carte=1

More accurately an SSW is modelled by some output in a couple of weeks time. There are so many caveats to that and anything else in that time period. Before then though plenty of interest and very little Atlantic.

I also noticed this Karl. That's quite good support for a cold spell down here.

It would be quite pleasing if after all the talk of a "front-end" winter we ended up with a freezing February!

Closer to the here and now developments at the end of next week still look very uncertain.

I know that it comes over as pedantry, but that 65% figure is not the risk of snow, but the percentage of the runs in that ensemble which would give snow. It's a subtle difference, but it means two very different things if you're standing in your back yard down there looking up at the sky.

Never mind the fact that only a couple of the 22 or 23 lines in that spaghetti actually start with initial conditions as measured. In addition, they all run to the same physical equations as each other. If those equations aren't right, then neither is any of the runs, not just 65% of them. The percentage is a way of describing the model output, not a weather forecast generated from it.

Like I said, I know it's a subtle difference, but it does explain why so often these percentages appear erroneous on the day.

Actually there's 146E06 km3 of it but that may be higher now given ice melt ☺️😉

I'm not ruling out changes even in the short term and as you say the modelled SWW may or may not impact the lower layers early Feb. For me the weather will always offer some interest even in quiet periods.

 There's always one. You know what I mean.