12z 850's mean for London not going below -3 from Monday

Wow what a flip that is gfs stamping on coldies hearts with this. Horrific output across the board tonight zero optimism for me. 

If you look at the t2m ensemble data you will see, while not exciting, the southeast will be below average in terms of temperature. Chilly days and frosty nights unlike further north or northwest. Still medium term promise further north I guess - will the ECM still hold such promise? I guess we will find out soon.

Faux cold dosen't do not for me, I want real cold with snow and gfs is shocking for that . Hopefully ecm can pull a rabbit out the hat . For whatever reason its gone massively wrong in the last couple of days quite the flip from all the major models. SSW looks good but we need to get lucky and we have had no luck this winter.

But more scatter and less of a warm up at the end. Very uncertain end to January, could go anywhere. 

A rather different ECM 12z run in the medium term compared with the last few runs keeping things somewhat more anticyclyawnic.

Not that worried , there was a big flip yesterday the other way , Darren posted a chart highlighting this. One thing about this winter there has been NO consistent trend .

Just gone through the GEFS looking at the 180 charts there is still some decent charts around with plenty of 'potential' ....yes the word potential again, but it isn't that bad , the 850's look like a 'warm up' but its with HP over us which would give us some cold day and night time temps

Seeing as your inbox is always full Gooner  - I pretty much asked - how much snow was there in Banbury? - in comparison to recent winters!?

Place a deckchair out for Uncle Barty to settle into if the ECM 240 Op is to be believed.

I find it rather hard to believe this ECM run tbh, given how different it is to not only this morning's run but the majority of ECM op runs in the past week.

Maybe this is the start of a change away from a colder outlook, but a lot more runs are needed in the coming few days before we can be certain one way or the other. Too many people IMO fall into the trap of thinking that one or two poor op runs from ECM, GFS spell disaster, but IIRC many op runs prior to last weekend didn't look a whole lot better for cold.

Yes, it would be just typical if its 10 day charts suddenly started coming to fruition this evening.  One hopes that in 24 hours tomorrow's 12z Op will throw up a different picture.

I find the confident calls for zonality amazing, especially as they are not backed up with reasoning and often no charts.

I am fairly sure that around 2 weeks ago, the exact same call was being made and the models looked very similar to how they do now. Then within a few days the Northerly appeared and hey presto, no zonality and some cold weather and snow for some. I think it was just after the models showed an easterly for the new year, over the Xmas period but then dropped the idea and things looked not great in FI, but that quickly changed.

I guess the clue for now is there as it was then. Zonality and easterlies shown in FI have not materialised thus far this winter, but U.K. Highs and northerlies have......hmm, zonality I would not be so sure, cold and blocked for some for the next week, yes, for example:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.aspx?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=12&time=141&lid=OP&h=0&tr=3#mapref

probably the above is as far as we can confidently go, thereafter, who knows!😀❄️

Surely the ECM ensemble data isn't out yet?

No it isn't. Think it's about 8:30ish.

Actually - a valid point - no one saw this northerly coming albeit brief, the one that was due on 6th and 7th was just a week too late and the gfs last week showed high pressure for this week but no northerly and what did we have? - A northerly (well north westerly for Devon) - but back to zonality next weekend? I think it's too early to call yet don't you? Met off show it will stay cold and dry further south and south east. - no signs of any milder wetter weather. - This hardly looks zonal to me. It's a long way off but far from zonal - in fact spot the depressions in the Atlantic - notice how quiet it is!?

To be fair as I said yesterday the ensembles were suddenly taking on that spaghettified look that usually indicates a major shake-up is on the way. Clearly a new signal has been picked up in the last day or two and the models are going to be chaotic for a while IMHO. 

Actually the northerly just gone was modelled very consistently well in advance.

Agreed David, that was my thought upon seeing such a radically different evolution.  I don't think the next pattern is at all clear at the moment: FI is probably 5-6 days even for the broad picture, let alone the details.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

I wonder why some people who post in here, who can predict what the weather will be like in 10 day's time with high confidence ( From a blocked starting point) in the UK. Are not busy spending the millions of £ they would make if they really could.  

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017011412/ECM1-144.GIF?14-0 

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2017011412/graphe6_1000_289_99___.gif 

Fairly cold and settled next week once the rain/sleet has fizzed out. After that who knows 

The GEFS don't, wide scatter at that range as you would expect  http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2017011412/graphe3_1000_297_93___.gif 

The charts were "all over the place" this morning.  I too, don't think they will have sorted themselves out in 12 hours.  More runs needed and as you say, 144 hours is about the limit of sensible soothe-saying.

So given all this do you think next weekend we will return to milder and wetter weather?