Good post and as your temps suggest its not mild in the nearly reliable timeframe

If we are very lucky perhaps Pert 5, though I don't think many ECM members are showing this. Perhaps Darren can shed some light

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2017011506/gensnh-5-1-168.png

GEFS are interesting in the reliable timeframe, up to 192 anyway. FI wants to blow the block away

But it does seem an upgrade in terms of continental style cold and we develop our own cold pool. If skies are clear, we could see some harsh frosts and low daytime maxima

Thanks Marcus and apologies I nicked your format of displaying temps. But it does highlight just how cold it might be despite others using the words poor etc and that pathetic red face.

I think if I was in Scotland I'd be fairly relaxed about the 6z Op verifying - it's far from warm up there with plenty of upland snow and some low level events at times too.

It also shows a general continuation of cool/chilly down here and amplifies things at the end with a Northerly allied with a southerly tracking jet.

It's really not terrible/poor etc. as some have commented, it's simply not showing a 7 day+ freeze

For me the longer we keep a similar pattern going the more chance we have of getting some even colder/snowier stuff than we've just had.

Youre right Kris.  Its always nice when the modelled breakdown fails at t144/120

Wow a post with charts, discussing the model output and everything, what a novel idea Joe 😉👍 yes that is interesting and not out in FI lala land either. Not dissimilar to what ECM showed a few days ago at T240, but then dropped. I like this, let's hope it's a trend...😀

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Chicago_USA_ens.png

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_New_York_USA_ens.png

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Toronto_Kanada_ens.png

You can see how mild over the NE America now which we should be getting strong easterly, well below subzero temps and lot of snow around.  Something not right when they are mild and here are not cold just cool with tad below temps.  So a big wasted opportunity for us to see real cold this coming week and next week while over other side of the pond stay mild for 2 weeks.

Make you wonder how 100% difficult to get a decent prolonged cold weather right in the middle of winter instead of wasted cold in Spring or Summer months that we had been getting lately.  

Temperatures had not been much difference from the wimp cold spell as temps resulted almost average levels.

Sorry Doc, posted most recent reply before I saw this! I am looking forward to the potentially cold and settled week the models show IMBY, hope we all get some nice frosts....

It looks typical of a ML block to the east with a potential drift off the continent in the SE for the time being.  The danger is gloom at this time of year with stubborn cloud possible. We just have to hope that we get some clear dry air. Meanwhile it looks poorer to the NW.

Blocking can be a struggle to move despite hints at a breakdown in a few days. 

Yes good point re. gloom, but those really cold, misty murky days can be very atmospheric! Sure we will have some clear spells....Doc PMed you twice!

Looking back at the charts and outlook over the last 7 days I would say a week is a rather long time in weather too.

Edit: DP I have replied (twice )

Doesn't an upper ridge over eastern Canada mean a trough somewhere in the Atlantic, bringing us westerlies or south-westerlies? I'm not sure I understand how it can deliver north-westerlies? 

HP keeps us dry and cold

Dry and cold from UKMO

Sharp frosts next weekend

Fascinating model watching.  Frosty high from UKMO, channel low from GFS, with snow for the Scots in FI.

Well into FI a LP runs across the South

Nine days out and its still cold

3-5c quite widely you quote 7c but that represents 0.01% of the population ,including Darren

Average daytime maxima for London in late January is around 7C, so it is around average. But the yellows are predominantly over the sea and reflect the effect of the sea surface temperatures.

In the reliable timeframe the 12z delivers more of the same, rather chilly in the south-east and the colder air gradually seeping north and west with time.