ties in with the Met O 6-15 dayer:

...Thereafter, many areas will be largely dry and fine with an increasing risk of frost and fog, with any rain and hill snow restricted to the northwest. It will feel very cold for many, especially in the south and east, with sleet or snow showers possible across eastern coastal parts.

Agreed , this Winter has been mad

There are two certainties. The first is that after a week things are still uncertain. The other is that Europe will still be cold at the low level. Throughout the next two weeks there is predicted snow cover as now - the whole of Northern Europe minus western France, the low Countries and Denmark and they could get more snow. So any Continental drift is likely to be at least quite cold.

Wide spread snow across England and Wales before mild weather returns at the start of February

You know there's no escape Gusty. Eyes down for the ensembles.

That's the so called "Northerly poised to return" JH spoke about - still not over yet then eh? still a lot of uncertainty. will await tomorrow's gfs for more clarity. One thing for sure - some very cold nights ahead.

After so many let downs - i'll just stick with my conservative view - in that a northerly is still possible from next weekend. It will either be cold then turning milder or cold followed by a northerly (next weekend/early next week) before turning milder.  - I hope the later.

Could all change tomorrow of course.

I must dig out my dictionary and check the word 'reliable'....

10 days away is reliable since when exactly?

Finally!

The 552 isopleth has hit southern Greenland!  Correct me if I'm wrong, but this is the first OP run where its managed it?

Anti poor,zonal and modern 18z

Im almost certain that Winter has started & will last about 44 days now

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017011418/gfs-0-234.png?18 

ROFL.

Nailed on then.  At least for the next six hours.

If nothing else the 18z is a case study in what happens when the blocking is too far west - the cold plunge just stimulates cyclogenesis to our west.

Another point is that the 18z shows the GFS tendency to create false high pressure over the Greenland plateau. A 1055mb high pressure cell disappears in 36 hours.....

if only 10 days were reliable! For snowfall it's difficult to get reliability at even 10 hours out!

And it achieves absolutely nothing....

All about the bigger picture, 500hpa heights are more reliable in the longer term than the surface pattern; getting that 552 isopleth further north is an excellent sign. I would like to see it get even further north, but this is a great start.

I've just had a read of this thread after taking some time out to focus on the short term synoptics and I am utterly gobsmacked at some of the presumptuous, OTT and downright moronic statements from a few. A certain someone writing off the entire winter.... Oh dear. Some people will just never learn. Please, for the love of God, make these silly statements in a different thread, if you must. You never know, you may end up being right (albeit via luck, rather than via any meteorological knowledge or expertise). 

As for the models, the outlook is anticyclonic but the chance of something much colder is there (18z GFS and last night's 12z ECM). Any return to something zonal is in la la land for the time being, and too far out to be trusted. 

Except that they're gone within 48 hours.   The bigger picture is that the block on this run is over Arctic Canada and that's 2,000 miles too far west.

Welcome to the modern Model Output Discussion thread.   It's clear that something fundamental has changed in recent years and poor analysis and premature conclusions are just what we have to accept in the new era....

(OK, I owe Shropshire a royalty payment)

ECM 12z ensembles have a fault but here's the SLP chart - showing that the op was a marked outlier in lowering pressure on days 9-10

18z control takes 500hpa heights to tip of Greenland too.... similar to the Op, it takes it no further preventing a significant cold spell, though it does give us some rather wintry weather for a few days. 

Control from GFS

I agree. Frankly Moomin is embarrassing himself and needs his keyboard confiscated for his own benefit!

I have my resolutions as well eek!. 

The ECMWF~< UKMO~ 😏 GFS> Are for UK Anticyclonic at least from Monday to Saturday with no significant whatsoever weather.

Large part of the UK mundane dry and settled with 1035 mbs High in charge.

Liked the evening bit Thursday just a bit of snow slush on car roofs by 6:00-7:30 p.m. Friday morning sleet flurries 10:20 to 11:30 etc. Further night frost Friday night and this evening frosty so pretty good on some days 50 percent this month so far has had some frosts that last several hours i.e., from 8-14 hrs frost with 0 to -2 deg. C so I am not fed up this winter yet.

The Models have the Bartlett Anticyclone to entertain us after Sunday London rain...☂️.

Shows blocking over Greenland , High pressure building over eastern Iceland - 200 miles to the west of Ireland and pressure building over Scandinavia too bringing in the air from the NE along with low pressure over the channel to bring sleet or snow over many southern parts of the country.  - It would be magnificent if this could come off wouldn't it!? Just a shame it's well over a week away.

Meanwhile - a week today: