Awful output so far GFS produces arguably the worst run all year . Some serious heat to our south so it won't take much for some decent summer weather but for the moment all looks a bit 2007ish.

The heat in Europe is incredible some records will be broken for sure. For us though it will just make the rain heavier.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

Taking the 12z GFS operational at face value it's really not a particularly wet run for down here and it would be mostly quite warm, occasionally very warm:-

The ens generally paint a more unsettled picture, particularly in the mid term but even here we're talking a handful of members other than the blip around the 6th. 

Given the hear over Europe and as suggested by the ens LP near to the UK could serve to drag up some very warm air - with some instability thrown in too it could be quite interesting

The ECM run is also unsettled just glancing at the charts but would want to see the ens with precip info to judge properly. As with the GFS though the LPs do drag up some warm air at times, albeit again more restricted to the south/south east than further north.

Not a great outlook if you like it endlessly warm and settled but not a terrible outlook in the context of what's normal for this time of year, although I appreciate it does look worse the further north and west you go.

Monday night/Tuesday morning looks especially gash . . . as a former TWO poster often used to say . . .

A horror show to me would be 30C+, searing sunshine and not a breath of wind. Oh, and dewpoints in the high teens.

Luckily not everyone likes the same. To me, the next week looks pleasant enough, I might even lose the rancid humid feeling that's been in the house for the past fortnight! (Air-con solves that in one room as long as it's on, but natural air-con by means of a dewpoint below 10C and a breeze is a zillion times better).

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=19

Now for the GFS op to be offering something like that at the end of the run is quite common, and quite commonly an outlier. Surprising agreement here.

Urgh. Looking like a spell of wet 'n' windy weather over Southern and Eastern parts on Monday night and into Tuesday morning. The rest of the week does look better if some (but not all) of the model outputs are to believed.



Providng a good reminder that this is the UK with a mid-latitude climate and having the Atlantic as our neighbour.

I think we will see some weather warnings being issued very shortly. Monday night and early Tuesday looks like it could bring a pretty significant deluge to northern and western areas. Some areas could see some heavy rain lasting for a good 12+ hours or so.

With you on this Retron. Not a fan of hot, cloudless, nothing weather with high dew points. Next week's charts don't bother me in the least. Not a lot of rain forecast for me, but then, rain in summer bothers me not one jot. Keeps the air, and more importantly, me, cool.

Glorious day in the South East today. A blip at the start of next week, then back to fairly nice weather thereafter.

GFS 12z Charts for Sun 11th and Sun 18th make it look like Groundhog Day! (as in the film)

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gem&var=2&run=0&time=24&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=12#mapref

Maybe some heat on the way ?

The curious alliance of UKMO and GEM continues this morning. These two are suggesting that a wall of HP to the east will utter a cry of 'you shall not pass!' to the deep low and prevent it from pushing east of the UK, let alone right over into Scandi as per the 00z ECM and GFS runs.

These two outcomes are almost complete opposites to one another 

GEM becomes interesting days 9-10 as the plume that's never been cleared away finds its way back toward the UK. Quite the contrast to ECM's cool but fairly settled ideas (not entirely though; cold enough air aloft and a weak enough ridge for showers to develop in places). 

The GEM solution is more fitting with the tendency of recent summers for blocking highs over Scandi to be more frequent and strong than usual, but this year so far has stood out greatly in having predominantly low pressure and temps... but then again, Tue-Wed sees a major influx of warm air there which could well change the balance of play toward subsidence from aloft. A pivotal moment coming up or just a wobble, I wonder? 

My goodness there is some amazingly hot air close to us.

Any long term warmth appears to remain in FI, if at all. This month has started like so many previous Summers around these parts, cool and unsettled with fleeting glimpses of sunshine, let's hope this summer doesn't follow a now to familiar pattern of the last few years.

Having looked at some of the charts I really hope we don't end up with a high parked to the West of the UK. Seems to be a common theme in recent summers and can be very persistent. Usual outcome for here is days on end where we will get a light shower or two at some point, with a clearance at about 9pm!

Yep, it clearly looks promising by the look of 12z GFS and ECMWF runs.

At least it will be comfortable indoors and out.

Though clearly evident is a Cool NE N Atlantic and UK High, after Monday next week.

Right now and from last Sunday, and obviously from Friday onwards last week are areas of cool Low Pressure over West and N NE UK and North Europe, we are now having UK under the main PV which spreads across Norway and N Europe for up to Thursday.  With this PV Low family affect NE Atlantic as well as SW and W Norwegian Sea as we have seen and it remains locked in for another 11 days here based on 12z ECMWF and GFS plus the UKMO Model, but from day 6-11, the North Atlantic Greenland UK High then emerges.

NW Atlantic and NE Europe Scandinavia and Norway have active be Low Pressure at same time next week, after the Cool showery NW flow shown for Monday, and a SSE tracking from E Greenland N and NE off Iceland SE tracking Polar Arctic Trof Low that from Wednesday to Thursday heads across our East over snort he Sea et all.

This coming Thursday is unsettled with a brief High ridge the day before and after it, Saturday and Sunday we have wet and windy weather dominate the UK weather... But another weak High ridge affect Southern Half UK again Sunday this coming weekend, quite a varied pressure pattern next 7 day Upto and including the Monday that follows.

There could be cloudy breezy weather on Thursday 15th ahem.

Post edited for clearer discussion and analysis.

😎☔️🌤😀.

Return of the Westerlies well illustrated in

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

with a long tongue of rainfall all the way across Europe from the UK to the Urals this coming week. We are not alone!

Well spotted David.  This phenomena has to be one of the most irritating but predictable singularities of our climate.  June could be such a stonker but in most years as we know it fails to deliver its potential.  Things do often improve for the last 10 to 7 days with a resurgence of the Azores High.

It looks not too bad after Wednesday AM, there is Unsettled conditions on Thursday with a narrow band of rain and then scattered rain showers across the UK, it looks like a changeable situation from Friday, in particular Saturday and Sunday when it could turn very dry and very warm in the SE and South of the UK, while Low Pressure and windy with some very heavy rain affects the West and North and parts of WNW of Central UK, though mild and humid in the Weekend in those parts.

By Monday it still uncertain as to what Pressure and weather will be but it looks like the Low Pressure will bring heavy showers or *Edit* longer spells of rain coming SE from the West and then NW across the UK.

It looks dry and very hot in SW and Central Europe, with High Pressure in period from 8th to 15th June respectively- Oops*Edited period described above with nearer normal temperatures in North and NE Europe with High Preeaure over there and in East and NE plus SE Central Norwegian Sea.

There looks like another Model Clash between the GFS and ECMWF from about 14th to 16th, as some cool and dry partly cloudy or cloudy weather but with mostly High Pressure extends from the Azores High to our SW with ECMWF being warmer but the GFS being  less that warm, but it looks fine and ECMWF Model looks very warm in South and SE SW and Central UK, by the Wednesday  

It could turn sunnier as the High affects UK and NW plus West and Central S Europe, GFS has Low Pressure across N and East UK on the Wednesday Thursday part of next week, with much cooler conditions, so diffferences are big.

This coming Weekend I look forward to the South and SE UK seeing very warm and sunny weather.😀😎🌞🌥🌫🌞.