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Brian Gaze
14 June 2017 05:11:45

GFS00z looks hot and bothered next week. The heat in southern Europe is almost off the scale. Could be making the news.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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moomin75
14 June 2017 07:03:12


GFS00z looks hot and bothered next week. The heat in southern Europe is almost off the scale. Could be making the news.



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

That looks exceptional in southern Europe Brian. If the UK taps into that between now and August 40c surely isn't out of the question?

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Matty H
14 June 2017 07:37:35

But a blocking high was setting up in the Atlantic and signs are for a 2012-like summer. Right?


My guess (as I wouldn't be obnoxious enough to spout such things as claiming I'll be proved right) is for a summer of patterns like we've seen. Brief, possibly increasingly hotter waves of southerly plumes lapping on the southern U.K. Shores like waves lapping on a beach, interspersed with unsettled spells.


Thanks for the welcomes. I'm not back. I still read this thread occasionally and it's clear there are still one or two trolls on this site. No names mentioned. 


Weekend looking fantastic and I have a Bristol harbourside pub crawl to attend. Tough eh?

Yate, Nr Bristol
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Rob K
14 June 2017 09:49:17

That's some quite insane heat for mid June over Spain, 28C+ at 850hPa this weekend and again next week!

A summer of short plumes of heat interspersed with cooldowns and thunderstorms would do for me... my pregnant wife might not agree with the desire for heat though!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Hungry Tiger
14 June 2017 10:18:09


GFS00z looks hot and bothered next week. The heat in southern Europe is almost off the scale. Could be making the news.



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


That looks like 45C to 47C in southern Europe there.


 

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South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Brian Gaze
14 June 2017 12:13:17
Up, up and away. GEFS mean now close to +10C 850s.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Solar Cycles
14 June 2017 15:25:18
A warm few days up here but nothing out of the ordinary before a return to average conditions follows. I'm hoping we don't see anything overly hot next week/week after, as I'm in hospital and they're not the best places to be in the heat.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
14 June 2017 17:32:08

A warm few days up here but nothing out of the ordinary before a return to average conditions follows. I'm hoping we don't see anything overly hot next week/week after, as I'm in hospital and they're not the best places to be in the heat.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

As much as I usually like hot weather, I feel the same. We have my mum's funeral next Thursday and I'd rather it not be too hot or thundery.  But we'll have to take what comes. 

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Global Warming
14 June 2017 19:08:05

Up, up and away. GEFS mean now close to +10C 850s.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

">http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london


The 12z GEFS is very interesting. We have two distinct clusters in the ensembles as we move into Monday of next week.


The first cluster takes the mean down quickly to around 2-3C by Tuesday. The other cluster keeps the mean at or above 10C. So a significant difference there. Both clusters have broadly equal numbers of runs.


Both the operational and control runs take a blended solution dropping the mean gradually. The ENS mean is basically in line with the op and control runs. So the blended solution would seem to be a sensible basis for a forecast at the moment, while noting there is a higher than usual degree of uncertainty in that outcome.

Gary L
14 June 2017 19:44:03

Really wish the models would come to some sort of agreement! On the edge of my seat of Glastonbury weather.

Bolty
14 June 2017 22:07:32

Nice to see Eastern Europe getting the cool and wet weather. They've had nothing but warm/hot summers for the past 10/11 years whilst we've had the drivel. It's about time we had a role reversal!


Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
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LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
14 June 2017 22:48:23

The GFS and ECMWF 12z, are showing the Opposites to each other at T144-168 et all!.


UKMO at T144 for Tuesday is dissimilar for that day Tuesday with a NE SW split in our weather, cool air wins, while for said day the ECMWF and GFS are both showing fine high pressure with mostly normal seasonal temperatures and dry conditions with light variable winds.


Will tomorrow at 144hrs show any change from the blocking High set up erm., cannot see it today more runs to check in next 48hours.


It looks like NW Atlantic SE tracking Low Pressure will try to nudge in to our West and SW, that various air masses can join together and creat convective Thundery showers- I have seen that GFS and ECMWF are pointing us that way and today's UKMO 144 is getting this idea, we just need to tap into air from our south, hot sunny, and wet showery thunderstorms from our SW are possible we need the SE tracking shortwave Low from NW Atlantic to be entering SW of N and NE UK High that the Models need to continue to bring on, as yet today's UKMO 144 could be heading that way, ECMWF 12z run today has very cool and wet weather with North C N Atlantic to UK Polar Vortex Low- the UKMO has that as well, with one for Norway and Finland to NE Europe being shown on GFS and ECMWF with long fetch cool arctic NW flow, as it bring East NE UK NW flow on Tuesday!!.

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Brian Gaze
15 June 2017 05:01:49

GFS00z really letting the heat rip! Just one run and one piece of the jigsaw puzzle. Nonetheless I wonder whether something notable could be on the way? 


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
15 June 2017 05:58:16

Overnight GEFS now mostly keep it warm / very warm next week. #blowtorch


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gary L
15 June 2017 06:34:36

Also worth noting UKMO at 144 now more aligned with the GFS. Interesting!

Joe Bloggs
15 June 2017 06:46:58

Very very hot ECM run so far..


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif


Temps approaching the mid thirties I'd imagine, particularly towards Gloucestershire/Bristol area in line with the highest 850's. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Solar Cycles
15 June 2017 07:21:48


As much as I usually like hot weather, I feel the same. We have my mum's funeral next Thursday and I'd rather it not be too hot or thundery.  But we'll have to take what comes. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 

Sorry to hear about the loss of your mum Caz. 😢

Ally Pally Snowman
15 June 2017 08:34:35

20c 850s next Thursday/Friday in the SE. The heat in Spain and France is staggering!


 


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.html


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gary L
15 June 2017 08:55:48


But a blocking high was setting up in the Atlantic and signs are for a 2012-like summer. Right?


My guess (as I wouldn't be obnoxious enough to spout such things as claiming I'll be proved right) is for a summer of patterns like we've seen. Brief, possibly increasingly hotter waves of southerly plumes lapping on the southern U.K. Shores like waves lapping on a beach, interspersed with unsettled spells.


Thanks for the welcomes. I'm not back. I still read this thread occasionally and it's clear there are still one or two trolls on this site. No names mentioned. 


Weekend looking fantastic and I have a Bristol harbourside pub crawl to attend. Tough eh?


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Always guesswork, but I'm with you on my feeling for the summer! 

Saint Snow
15 June 2017 09:15:11


Very very hot ECM run so far..


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif


Temps approaching the mid thirties I'd imagine, particularly towards Gloucestershire/Bristol area in line with the highest 850's. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


 


Could be a legendary Glastonbury for the right reasons this year.


Martin
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Solar Cycles
15 June 2017 09:44:06


 


 


Could be a legendary Glastonbury for the right reasons this year.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Bar the consistently crap set they have these days. 😂

Rob K
15 June 2017 10:17:36
Very warm looking GFS 00Z ensemble (for London anyway). Signs of a breakdown towards the end of the month (and ECM also looking a bit iffy at Day 10) but that's a long way out. And I'm off work next week!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Joe Bloggs
15 June 2017 10:49:21


 


 


Could be a legendary Glastonbury for the right reasons this year.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I hope so as I am going!!! 


At least it's looking dry (at the moment) for the run up to the festival which is very different to last year. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
picturesareme
15 June 2017 11:30:16


Overnight GEFS now mostly keep it warm / very warm next week. #blowtorch



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


shades of the summers of 13/14 ☀ And they were both crackers. 

Rob K
15 June 2017 11:56:11
Hopefully GFS 06Z isn't a trendsetter, as it is far more unsettled than the 00Z. Dross sets in by next Thursday on this run.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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