Definitely redeemed on Day 10 but it's such a wonky run it's hard to see it remotely verifying that way.

What is encouraging is that despite several spanners in the works on this run the default is a return to cold incursions from the north 

Indeed. Hence my point that variations on a theme are ok for Scottish contingent but not for those of us in the south. At this rate it won't be long before we're hoping for a rex block and an inversion. 

---

To further add if your in the far south then not only all of the boxes tick, but we need something exceptional too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_2.png 

Combined with sub 520dam 500-100hPa thicknesses many would have bitten your hand off over the last few winters for charts like these.

Edit: And from an NH perspective http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017112712/ECH1-240.GIF?27-0 

---

indeed its been a issue for the uk for a few years now Times of the modern winter? 

Crazy run from ecm let’s see where it sits not worth looking past t96 on either model at the moment. Imho

 

 

Doc, it will all have changed in the morning.  But enjoy a decent chart for your area. Frankly, as it stands I've given up on a northerly delivering IMBY, but in your locale you should get some more of the white stuff if that chart transpires so be sure to post some pictures. As those piccies are the closest a lot of us are going to get for the foreseeable.

Back in the 1970's and 1980s winters rarely got going before Christmas, if at all, I see no reason to expect anything different for 2017-18 here south of the Thames, where Essex folk are northerners.

---

Brian did we have trouble posting live xcharts (few posts back) or have I got confused with something else eg another forum.
Just saying as I don’t want any members getting into trouble.
If so might be an idea to delete to be safe

LOL at everyone being so tetchy! 😂😀😀 I feel it too. 

The ECM, whilst a good run, is a perfect indication that caution is required. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_192_1.png - from this point we could easily sit in a mild airflow with a -NAO. It just happens to come good in the end.

As it stands, the trend is still a cold and blocked one, and we actually have cross model agreement on that at least, albeit with some hazards on route. 

Caution required! 

---

T+240 looks OK in terms of potential but on this run the arrival of the Arctic air mass has been delayed by another couple of days.  Plus, at T+240 the 500-1,000hPa value for the South-East corner is still above 530dam and the 850s barely -4C, so the lack of enthusiasm is understandable.  I accept that if you go 100 miles north you're into thickness in the low 520s but 850s are only at -8C or lower across the northern half of Scotland.

My concern is that the evolution is still flaky and will be until it becomes clear what is happening with heights in mid-Atlantic and exactly where the block sits.   Nothing new here: we are always reliant on the jigsaw pieces falling just right to get deep cold down through the whole country for any sustained period.  As it stands too many pieces are still moving about.

---

Yes easy to say I suppose but people need to relax and enjoy the cooling week on offer and perhaps enjoy the rollercoaster. A few dodgy tummies on the ride today but with the abundance of data it is easy to get hung up on an iffy run or two.

Stick to the trend - as of now the trend is cold 

 

edit: wouldn't mind lower heights over southern Europe though 

I don’t see any downgrade at all , it looks blocked to me after the weekend just depends where it sits....if we are lucky we will be in a cold flow ....again.

 

Between now and then we have cold seasonal weather to look forward to 

---

Here on Thursday the t850s at -9°C so you forgive me from a local perspective for thinking that I have seen worse output and I am not talking about 240hr out.

In addition by Thursday evening the sub 520dam air is across much of the south with t850s around -7°C.

Basically the cold is moving in for a few days this week then cool and anticyclonic (perhaps average) and then colder than average again. That exceeds my expectations for late November/early December in terms of cold. In terms of deep cold and snow we have months of winter ahead (to disappoint us!)

For what it’s worth the UKMO 12z 168hr chart hints at retrogression of the Atlantic High toward Greenland.

---

Don't know what they are? I had a look and can't see anything.

---

Yes, I know it looks OK for the north and it is precisely why I emphasised that I was referring to the south-east. Plus I was talking about the reload towards the end of the run.

I don't dispute that the charts are unusual and full of potential; I'm just flagging why I'm not yet getting too enthusiastic and why some others may not be as regards the outlook in a week's time.

---

Good news about the MetO Doc. 😊

Yes as ever we are focusing too much on day 10 and forgetting what’s right in front of us, we’re always guilty of that. 

A nice cold and frosty week ahead. Most data also says it will become cold again (potentially very cold) the week after.

The trend remains blocked, but we have some fine details to navigate first. I’d be gobsmacked if the overall pattern was wrong, and we didn’t at least get the significant block to our NW. So much data points to that very scenario, but of course there is no guarantee that we will go cold as a result, quite yet. 

 

 

---

Top of page 9 first post by CP

 

A slight shift on the ECM 12z 850 Ens toward a milder solution in the mid term. The Op is a mild solution D7 onwards compared to the spread, but is on the colder side of the spread at the end.

EDIT: No -10 ens on the ECM 12z for my neck of the woods - closest is around -8 for the whole run.

---

Some really quite odd runs tonight some of them don’t look right had this before when something might be up about potential cold spells

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php 

 

Boo! Preferred the snow row on the faulty version!

It's a great step having the 30 year average - much easier to see at a glace how it is shaping up.

---

ECM ens definitely less cold tonight from the end of the week

Tonight's ECM ens left with Yesterday's 12z right

I know the means have there limitations and I don’t really like using them but you would have to say ecm not so clever tonight

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0 
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0 
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0 

Yep. ECM ens have wobbled.

GFS and MetO still looking very good though. 

18z GFS will be entertaining as will tomorrow’s runs. It’s very rarely straightforward.

Remember that ensembles can have a sudden switch just as much as op runs. 😊

---

I guess it will be a matter of us being patient for any real cold to come along, just as happned in both Dec 2009 and Nov 2010. On both of those occasions, it took a bit of time to get the buildings blocks in place and for the real cold to then develop. Those things didn't happen overnight then and I dare say it'll be the same this time, that is if we do get a spell of proper cold.

---

I have seen worse ECM ensemble means at day 10 than this. It hardly screams zonality! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png 

---

That’s yesterday’s Doc. I made the same mistake!  Edit -ignore me, now updated. 

---