Another winter beckons and I'm sick of it already ! 

The 5 month autumn has now kicked in down in the south..the only difference for the next 2 months is that it gets darker with it.

For the north its exciting...for the south watching reload after reload with fantastic looking northerlies and 850's at the south coast barely falling to -5c is tiresome already.

Thursday this week was looking ok for a little snow down here in the SE as the wind tilted back to a more NNE'ly at the same time as a colder pool of uppers moved down. Now its NW'ly all the way and predominantly dry. By Friday the wind does tilt into the NE but the 850Hpa's are modified and uppers of -5c or -6c will now bring rain.

I feel myself getting sucked into the game again. In the past I would be fatigued by early February, these days I'm done by December.

We don't get cold enough northerlies and we no longer get midwinter easterlies. 

Silly, stupid season ! .

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😂😂😂😂

 

Was this not cold enough for ya?

 

 

And anyway, Steve, I thought you'd gone over to the 'I prefer mild winters now I'm all growd up' camp 

 

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I have just posted in the autumn moaning thread about the lack of snow here in Edinburgh during this month (you had to go quite high up here to get that as the lowest snow line on the Pentland Hills according to the data from Swanston weather station has been 1,200 feet) and a recent lack of air frosts despite the fact that we're getting quite a lot of ground frosts just now. Just a while later, I had discovered that this thread had been created (albeit a few days early since we are technically speaking, not yet into the actual meteorological winter, not that this matters too much anyway).

I mentioned on that other thread that whilst I am not concerned about that lack of air frosts just now since it is still early in the season, that will become more of a concern if that scenario continues for much longer and I will have plenty to say on the matter on this thread if that ends up happening. On a slightly more light-hearted note, I can remember that the first summer moaning thread which I posted onto last year doubled up as the summer moaning and gloating thread. That is important because there are signs that for here in Scotland at least, we could at the very least get quite a cold start to the winter.

If we were to go onto get a cold winter therefore, it would therefore be interesting to see whether or not this thread eventually doubles up as the winter moaning and gloating thread with quite a number of people coming on to gloat about the cold winter which they are experiencing.

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Tsk, you should know by now that mentioning 2010 to us Kent folks just makes us grimace!

My weather records for the 8th Dec 2010 say:

"High 2.6C, low -2.1C, remnants of snow on the ground (<50% cover). Dry."

(It was actually just a small blob of snow next to the pond in the back garden, more like 5% cover!)

The last stuff that fell from the sky was some rain on the 4th Dec.

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😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

You have to laugh! 

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In former times, especially between November and March, and occasionally throughout the year, the first thing I did in the morning was check the charts. These days that almost compulsive behaviour has been relegated behind putting the kettle on, checking my emails and scratching my arse. I’ve learn’t as the years have gone by that life should not, and does not, revolve around the vagaries of a computer’s vision of the weather in two weeks time. It will frustrate you and occupy time that could be better spent on other frustrating pursuits.
The last few days have reinforced that view 😂😎

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Amen! 

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Summed up in a nutshell ! 

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GFS: "Hey, lets all go to this really good party next week - it'll be great!"
UKMO: "I don't know what I'm doing next week - I've only made plans as far as the weekend. I'll get back to you."
ECM: "Sounds good - I'm up for it!"
GEM: "Nah, not for me - I'll be washing my hair"
GFS: "Actually, part of me thinks it's not such a good idea"
UKMO: "Are you sure? I've had time to think and I might be up for it!"
ECM: "Yeah, I reckon I might give it a miss and watch TV instead"

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Brian should sticky this at the top of the MOD page, never a truer words have been spoken.

There`s nothing exciting about living in this part of the North. All we seem to get is rain, with a few flakes of sleet now and then (yippee).

We`ve had 53mm of rain in the last 7 days

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It's worse when the models are showing a wintry period of weather coming up, and every run you have a fear you'll see the Euro High inflating. It used to be exciting seeing the evolution, an innocent naivete having you thinking, "well it's OK, cos there'll be a proper snowy spell coming up soon... I think". Now the excitement is replaced by cynicism, doubt and trepidation.

Even on the rare occasion the planets and ducks all align to perfection and we get - gosh - a taste of proper winter, most of us continue to check the MO, but with an even higher level of fear that the thaw and return to autumn is imminent. It drains the excitement, and before you know it, the snow's gone and life sadly returns to normal - and you know it could be a few years before winter returns. So you get back to scanning the further reaches of the MO.

FWIW, I also blame the constant searching the models for the ideal conditions for making my life go by too fast

 

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I've learnt to keep expectations low now and just be thankful that we're not experiencing relentless gales and excessive rain (yet). I prefer this cool and quiet weather with some winter sunshine over wet, wild 'n' mild weather, the latter just tires and depresses me.

But what doesn't help our cause are the local papers (Kent Live in particular) going all Daily Express style with hyping up non-existent snow and proper cold. It's mostly for the clickbait to generate web advert revenue but it still gets people worked up/excited anyway.

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Couldn't agree more - it's nothing unseasonable that we are seeing now anyway! Many parts of the south probably wont see any snow anyway!

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To be honest, I'm perfectly happy with what we've seen so far. A couple of air frosts, a few ground frosts, very decent looking charts that could bring something interesting next month. Obviously, I'll be disappointed if those charts don't materialise and if we don't see snow at some stage this winter. However, to me, it's far too early to moan - we can still fool ourselves that this could be THE year and we can still be optimistic.

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That's true and we have to remember that we are still only in the last few days of autumn now, and not yet into the actual meteorological winter. My one moan though would be with regards to why on Earth, we are seeing maximum temperatures of 5.9°C at Edinburgh Gogarbank, 6°C at Edinburgh Airport and 6.3°C at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh today with what is supposed to be a "cold" northerly wind from the Arctic.

Northerly winds have never been renowned for bringing snow to this part of Edinburgh at this time of year, so I can remember these winds always being dry here unless there is an easterly component to that wind which then brings those wintry showers further into the Edinburgh area from in off the North Sea. That is fine because that is what we have just now.

Generally, it would be fairly sunny here with those winds with perhaps a bit of cloud around under this type of air mass, but I can remember from before that at this time of year, the temperature would be already be struggling to get above freezing during the day resulting in there being a lot of ice around on the tops of any puddles which would then be around all day. Furthermore and if that air mass had come after any sort of snow event, there would usually still be a bit of that snow around which would then last for quite a while afterwards although it would now be very icy by this stage.

What we have at the moment though, isn't even all that cold for the time of year. We didn't even manage to get a ground frost this morning let alone an air frost and so unless we get much more of a drop in the temperature over the next day or so than what we have seen until now, this supposedly "cold" spell which we are meant to be in just now is just going to end up being one massive non-event.

 

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I see that we're "back on" this afternoon (until the ECM comes out). 

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How very true.  But I bet if the stellar charts get within T+96 you might be back to checking before putting on the kettle.

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8.5C and sunny today.. sums up your typical 'Arctic winter northerly' for these parts.

Unless there is a 's-candy' high in play I won't begin to get excited down here. To do so would be pointless as disappointment would be inevitable.

During the last great ice age the glaciers that covered the uk began at what is roughly the M4 corridor now 😔 So that says it all.

Nothing to look forward to up here either if the past four winters and this wretched November are anything to go by. Wish I'd spent the whole month in the Canaries and come February I'll no doubt be feeling the same about winter. 

This northerly is the biggest joke I’ve encountered in all my years weather watching. Nothing wintry at all and just a few days from December. More concerning there is hardly any precipitation anyway so even if it occurred further into the winter we’d be lucky to get more than a dusting. Just a total joke. Northerlies used to bring frequent heavy showers all day long not this useless garbage

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  And the MO thread is a thrilling ride. Up and down, twists and turns.  I have to admit to getting a little carried away at times and allowing myself the occasional hope - like now!  I can’t read charts so I rely on what you experts say and I do get excited when you all pretty much agree, which isn’t often. 

The ones I love most are those sensible ones who say ‘but it’s at 1,498 hours so we can’t take it as read’. Then turn unsensible and get annoyed at the charts for snatching it away the next day.   Priceless!  

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Have a read of Richard (abdn)- I'm not sure his version of events would line up well with yours!

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Well said Richard, these northerlies are as much use as a fart in a spacesuit, a chocolate fireguard or a spark in a gas filled room.

Northerlies are now utter shite.  Easterlies dont seem to happen.  Lowland Snow is rapidly becoming something we used to get occasionally in the past,and is now consigned to Christmas Cards or the front page of the Daily Express, read as it is, largely by victims of senile dementia.

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I'm actually seeing a few signs now that it might not be so exciting in the northern half of the UK (I'm sure that you will be including Scotland as part of the "north" unless you're only talking about the north of England) after all, as a lot of the models now seem to have backed off a bit from that return to the northerlies which has been hinted at after that milder (or rather, less cold since it isn't forecast to get all that mild) spell which is forecast for the end of the week and the weekend.

This is just typical of what you see all the time when the forecast models promise a really cold spell coming up only for them to then back away from that, and for that really cold spell to never materialise in the end. This is the same sort of thing which also happens during the summer when the models promise a heatwave ahead of us which then, never actually happens.

The summer which we entered into six months ago was the perfect example of that because back then, I lost count of the number of times when according to the models, we were going to get a massive build of high pressure from the Azores and the promise of drier weather and a heatwave from that which of course, never actually happened.

In the end, the South of England did get a decent first half to the summer but for here, we ended up having a very poor summer with our wettest June on record, every single summer month coming out wetter than average and at least one of our summer months being cooler than average. If that doesn't tell you anything about how reliable these models are (especially further into the less reliable time frame) then nothing will.

Having said that though, there are still no signs on the horizon of the sort of mild, wet and stormy weather which has dominated our recent winters with the exception of last winter (although even that was still mild) and that at least, has to be something to be positive about.

 

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