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Gusty
29 November 2017 18:00:18


 Spooky, I was about to post the same link for Aberdeen (EGP) as it shows 500-1000hPa values dropping to 512dam by 162hours. Methinks the GFS model is overdoing the cold (up here at least) but time will tell.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Weird. Clearly the current northerly has moved down the east coast and telepathically linked us in some way. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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Maunder Minimum
29 November 2017 18:03:41


Latest run going for a potentially deep cold spell setting up over the eastern half of the States from next weekend.


 


 


Could help fire up the N. Atlantic Jet down the line, but which 'arm' of it is the question. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Should be the southern arm. Normally, cold air exits at Newfoundland and sends LPs bombing across into us - the chart you showed, should cause cyclogenesis much further south than usual.

New world order coming.
Richard K
29 November 2017 18:06:51
Euro 4 shows some settling snow in parts of the east down to east anglia on Thursday night
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=39&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

Not sure if the link will take you straight to the right time - try 3am on Friday
Saffron Walden, NW Essex, approx 70m above sea level (when the tide is out)
Ally Pally Snowman
29 November 2017 18:10:37

Euro 4 shows some settling snow in parts of the east down to east anglia on Thursday night
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=39&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Not sure if the link will take you straight to the right time - try 3am on Friday

Originally Posted by: Richard K 


 


Yes could be  a decent covering for parts of EA and SE friday morning 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
29 November 2017 18:26:15
GFS 12Z ensemble looks a colder set than the 06Z or 00Z.

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2017112912/graphe3_1000___-0.12574_51.5085_Londres.gif 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." ā€” Jerome K. Jerome
Whether Idle
29 November 2017 18:27:12


 


Indeed.


If I had to make an educated guess, I'd say the chances are quite high for this pattern to persist throughout most of December. The weather is far from zonal and to me, it seems like this pattern is emerging as the front runner in the ENS too.


Incidentally, odds are being slashed on a white Christmas and even for the winter as a whole for one of the coldest.


I would say that the background signals must be there for a noteworthy freeze through December.


Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


This (bold) ties in almost exactly with the Met Offices latest thoughts. (see the media thread) You could be on to something!

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Rob K
29 November 2017 18:30:03
Not sure I like the look of ECM 12Z so far. Seems far more progressive with the Atlantic low than other output.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." ā€” Jerome K. Jerome
Maunder Minimum
29 November 2017 18:34:18

Not sure I like the look of ECM 12Z so far. Seems far more progressive with the Atlantic low than other output.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


ECM is consistently the party pooper this season.

New world order coming.
Arcus
29 November 2017 18:36:27


 


ECM is consistently the party pooper this season.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


And this consistency should not be ignored in the current run of output.


EDIT: Mind, that 168 chart could prove nice for our friends in Scotland...

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
doctormog
29 November 2017 18:37:50


 


ECM is consistently the party pooper this season.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


It could really go either way from the 144hr chart.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_144_1.png 


 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
29 November 2017 18:38:14


 


And this consistency should not be ignored in the current run of output.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


But it hasn't been any more consistent than other models. It's been all over the place, just usually "less cold" in various ways.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." ā€” Jerome K. Jerome
Notty
29 November 2017 18:40:41

Compared to the 00z run the ECM 12z isn’t very consistent

Notty
Pontypool, 132m asl
Solar Cycles
29 November 2017 18:41:11
Iā€™m not seeing much in the way of a protracted cold spell signal tbh, snaps yes.
Chunky Pea
29 November 2017 18:45:24

snaps yes.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


If you insist. Make mine a double. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Solar Cycles
29 November 2017 18:48:17


 


If you insist. Make mine a double. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

šŸ˜‚šŸ˜‚šŸ˜‚

Rob K
29 November 2017 18:51:29
Well, ECM has very different ideas about next week than the GFS!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." ā€” Jerome K. Jerome
Joe Bloggs
29 November 2017 18:52:19

I may be being too simplistic, but for me the t+144 MetO chart sums up our predicament.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png


The NWP is not sure quite yet which area of HP is going to have the most influence on the UK - the heights developing over Europe, or the ridging towards Greenland. My concern is the Euro High will be too stubborn and will result in mild air being pumped in from the SW with cold air restricted to Northern Scotland, or worse, Iceland.


This isn’t resolved tonight and probably won’t be tomorrow either. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
doctormog
29 November 2017 18:55:10


This isn’t resolved tonight and probably won’t be tomorrow either. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


This sums up the current output nicely Joe. Some good potential out there but equally good potential for things to go wrong in terms of cold. Day 6 is where things may be decided one way or the other.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
David M Porter
29 November 2017 18:56:37


The evolution from T+192 to T+216 is horrendous.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0


Originally Posted by: SEMerc 


I find that evolution a little suspect tbh. One wonders where the sudden burst of energy in the atlantic between T192 and T216  has come from. Looks a little odd to me, I must say.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Brian Gaze
29 November 2017 18:56:52


Latest run going for a potentially deep cold spell setting up over the eastern half of the States from next weekend.


Could help fire up the N. Atlantic Jet down the line, but which 'arm' of it is the question. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


I know you were hosting it on a third party server but we're not allowed to use charts from that provider.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Maunder Minimum
29 November 2017 18:57:22


The evolution from T+192 to T+216 is horrendous.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0


Originally Posted by: SEMerc 


I don't even bother looking at the ECM output anymore - it is always so predictably bad. That does not mean it is wrong, but I prefer looking at eye candy.

New world order coming.
Arcus
29 November 2017 18:58:00
ECM has been persistent in developing that low far more than GFS in the 120 to 144 range. It may be barking up the wrong tree, but it is consistently yapping...
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Gavin D
29 November 2017 19:08:34

For longer range prospects I think it might be worth keeping an eye on America the first major cold outbreak of the season is expected later next week if it does that will fire up the jet stream and send milder air our way


ECN0-216.GIF.thumb.png.f760e99d7f58f6bf5e6e6ae1dd07b298.pngECN0-240.GIF.thumb.png.e0f6f4028f1daf08c6c180ba3691acd2.png


ECU0-216.GIF.thumb.png.f991b88ba7102302638215586c425be7.pngECU0-240.GIF.thumb.png.11f9ac1b8a343a45f7edeb95d4769b84.png

Solar Cycles
29 November 2017 19:12:10


For longer range prospects I think it might be worth keeping an eye on America the first major cold outbreak of the season is expected later next week if it does that will fire up the jet stream and send milder air our way


ECN0-216.GIF.thumb.png.f760e99d7f58f6bf5e6e6ae1dd07b298.pngECN0-240.GIF.thumb.png.e0f6f4028f1daf08c6c180ba3691acd2.png


ECU0-216.GIF.thumb.png.f991b88ba7102302638215586c425be7.pngECU0-240.GIF.thumb.png.11f9ac1b8a343a45f7edeb95d4769b84.png


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Thats not always the case Gavin.

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