Surely that all depends on where the cold is. In a typical British winter, the cold is bottled up over eastern Canada, the PV is fired up over Canada/Greenland and as cold air spills into the Atlantic from Newfoundland, it fires up cyclogenesis and the jet, which brings a procession of LPs across to the UK, with the centres normally in northern Scotland or north of there.

The model output for next week shows the Mid-West taking the brunt of the brutal cold and it does not exit the American continental landmass at the usual high latitude - surely that would engender southerly tracking lows which could aid northern blocking instead of destroying it.

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Agree. Almost certain that it will be among the mildest within the ENS.

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I'm not saying it will happen this time but considering how often it does, you'd like to think they might program it into the model in advance rather than leaving it till two days before :-)

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Exactly

its so different it’s ridiculous 

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It is a staggering difference agreed, which put simply almost destroys any confidence one might have of any chart at +192, taken in isolation.

Whether the same principle applies to GFS is a debate that could go on forever, but by then it’ll be Spring again and my thoughts turn to other things 😊🌩🌩

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It's frustrating to have such a continued disparity at just T+144. Has modelling accuracy improved after 5 days in the last 15 years ? I don't think so.

Winter model watching these days isn't about watching patterns, trends and minor differences between the models, its a game of guessing who is right or wrong...the differences are stark. A screaming northerly or a mild westerly ? Ensembles flip at the drop of a hat too. 

 

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maybe we just have too much information to look at nowadays???? Back in the day we had the week ahead forecasts and that was your lot

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Its actually quite good

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Agree with that Marcus but I'm talking about the early days of model watching in say 2002-2007 when the differences 'seemed' less pronounced. 

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Well it is right at the end (D9 and D10), but prior to that the Op is not outlandish compared to the 850 ens

 

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Whoops, did not know that. It's the reason I put it on a 3rd party site as the image direct from site would not link. 

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Not often you see lower 850s in the Caribbean than in the Yukon.

The ensembles show great scatter = high uncertainty. That would be my only conclusion. From that you would expect Operational runs to be all over the place and grouping trends within the ensembles themselves to fluctuate.
Good fun though.

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More runs are needed.

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House!

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One thing which remains constant is that whenever a cold spell is forecasts model consensus becomes even more constantly unreliable. The ECM is a dogs dinner post +168 which in itself is well into FI anyway.

The will it won’t it show continues but if the supposedly Nina signature of an early cold start to winter followed by a mild and wet last two thirds holds any sway then we need the GFS to be on the ball here.

O/T Beeb still keen on a Northerly next week

 

D Bett “ progressively colder” next week

clearly ignoring ECM

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Are my eyes playing tricks on me? It looks as if the isobar lines cross (between the Outer Hebrides and southern Greenland) on this chart. I think GFS needs new crayons.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=126&mode=0

Sorry a little OT ...is the met Office seasonal / contingency outlook released this Friday 1st ??

The pub run not looking so good - it has pepped up the Atlantic LP - will it bring us the Greenie HP or will the Atlantic break through ?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=18&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

 

Yes - looks  like being an epic fail on this run - those damn heights to our south are not giving way.

 

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It’s just another run, and I’m not yet convinced, but those Euro heights are going to bugger things up again for us in my opinion. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_162_1.png

How infuriating, given what we could have had with such a good pattern upstream.

Not throwing the towel in just yet, and some cold air looks likely to reach northern Scotland, but that is my suspicion for now.  

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And tonight’s GFS.

Of course, the statement was made before the latest GFS run but when it comes to hope-casting I never let facts get in the way of wishful thinking 😊

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What makes it all the more infuriating is we finally have some deep cold to tap into! 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_177_2.png

 

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issued last week. Here is the temperature forecast.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-djf-v1.pdf

 

18z not so great .Euro high flexing it’s muscles again.....how bloody hard is it to get cold here.

one run and all that 

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