I shouldn't worry too much about UKMO at the moment - it shows the alignment which delivers down the track - the Atlantic LP further south and pushing WAA up towards western Greenland. It appears that ECM is the model which is not fully in line with developments.

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Using the "Live Compare" function there the low is in almost exactly the same spot but is less deep on the UKMO. The GFS has it even deeper if anything but it doesn't break through like the ECM does. 

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Even though the ECM flattens out the pattern in the mid-term the op still evolves into something with interest...

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

 

From scanning through the models, one gets that feeling that whatever the jet or the heights over Europe do, areas in the northern latitudes just keep trying to suck blobs of high pressure towards the pole. Even some of those milder GFS ENS have huge areas of northern blocking, albeit coupled with heights over southern Europe. It just feels different, not trying to reset to zonality...but with amplification abound. (Here endeth this highly technical post)

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Even though ECM seems to be somewhat at odds with the other models this morning, it still doesn't appear to be an overly mild run to my eyes at least.

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not such a good northerly on the 06z. looks like it will sink. Cant seem to build proper heights over Greenland. This is the norm in the modern era

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Rob you've picked the highlights Cant help a little excitement!I'd settle for a couple  of days of heavy snow.However it still seems more likely that we will have the classic pattern of early December cold then a breakdown to mild Atlantic before Xmas 

a cold blast but not extreme

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http://old.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html 

Can anyone get the above working after 240 hours? - it seems to go back to July's output model.

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Greece and Italy gets the action as usual. The danger is always the pattern sinks and shifts east as we get closer. Another common theme of modern times

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Aye - the pressure to the west is more of a mid to south orientation, rather than the stella GH variety we have seen on recent runs.

 

Plenty of time for change, but i would say theres more likely hood of this going to Turkey etc based on recent years behavior

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Couldn't disagree more - the UK stays on the cold side throughout and this is no classic sinker, since the block remains.

It is an odd run though and leaves us in a chilly no-mans land. Just another variation of the theme though, which is one of major blocking. The 850s over Greenland become insanely warm compared with the normal situation. Yes, the States get a cold plunge, but far to the west of the normal situation, so the Atlantic jet does not get fired up as usually happens when the cold spills out of eastern Canada into the north Atlantic.

N.B. If this run came off, North Dakota would become as cold as Siberia. Crazy even Kansas becomes Siberian. Huge plunge of cold air into the Mid-West.

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Yes, the Atlantic doesn't really get through even out to 240 (which we know changes every 6 hours) so it's just a variation on the same theme.

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That's the old site, it hasn't worked for months! use the TWO chart viewer at https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

or the Meteociel at http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

 

Both let you mouse over to change charts.

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GEFS 06h shows around 40% of Ens with a milder westerly flow -but given the huge spread more chopping and changing to come. METO forecast suggests cold holding on until mid December.

There is plenty of intense cold air in the Northern Hemisphere - Far more than usual.

Just heard that Oymyakon in Eastern Siberia was -60C last night. Amazing for November - even for that part of the world.

 

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GEFS 06z update. Still very difficult to make a call on next week.

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Control gives us a very interesting scenario later on in the run

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The control seems to be consistently showing something interesting. The general feel of the models remains interesting too.

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This morning's GFS runs suggest a rinse and repeat next week (with respect to this week) with a milder weekend in between. So going by GFS 6z, mostly cold and dry for the next week or 2, with the possibility of more Atlantic influenced weather from mid-December driven on by an Azores High and invigorated jet stream - pretty much in line with the Met long term outlook. It could all change of course which is part of the fascination!

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Lets see if pans out then

 

This is miles better than previous years it has to be said

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I wonder when all the seasonal models METO, JAMSTEC, CANSIPS, CFSv2 etc etc will go cold!?

I was just watching Gav's 13th Christmas update and the CFSv2 model run shows persistent zonal westerlies and has done for a while now- it's like it just wants to keep throwing LP systems into the UK and doesn't show any blocking and only transient ridge of HP - very brief.

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The cold cluster seems to be getting less and less, but still the op and control are taking that route. Clearly on a knife edge.

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Middle of next week looks interesting if this comes off!? - Perhaps a thunder snow event?
Shows huge temperature gradient across the UK. Temps next Wed start off at 6-8c in the south but fall to -1c to 0c by 6pm that evening!?

 

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checking the temperature@2m  profile its clear that probably alot of that scatter is probably down to UK being under clear skies/HP as it looks to be on the whole - quite to very chilly.  Avg temp around 4*c for Liverpool

 

 

In my eyes this is classic "models cant deal with a blocking high"... but on the whole - thats what will dictate our weather for the next week or 2, rather than historically being the dictated by Low pressure systems

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This morning's EC15 still hinting at a more typical SW flow becoming established after day 12, but with a huge amount of scatter, so confidence is such a outcome would be lower than normal (not that it would be very high that far out at the best of times).

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