The 18z run beautifully illustrates the finely balanced nature of the options (and opportunities) next week.

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The been certainly don’t hang every forecast off the last Gfs run, surely.

I think that’s a good way of putting it.

So near yet so far.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_195_1.png

 

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By 198 the 18z brings us sooooo close to some very cold air

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Not happy reading there for coldies. In summary one could realistically presume our only cold weather will cease in 2 weeks time for the rest of winter!

Fortunately last year’s literature didn’t go to plan for them. 

One thing is for sure at the moment IMO, and that is next week's weather is still some way off from being nailed one way or the other.

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18z looks like getting the cold air to us 

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The trouble is that there is no obvious way that the Euro High is going to pack it's bags any time soon. It will likely be there or thereabouts for a while unfortunately. 

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Im not sure what MOGREPS and GLOSEA are seeing but the signal in-house appears to be firming up on cold rather than wavering, odd when you see the huge scatter we have privy to.

The commentary from Fergie has been absent so far this season, although those inside hints at those systems output were usually off the mark and confusing at times.

Only a handful of cold members (six to be exact) .in the 18z short ensembles for London in the mid-term. Hopefully a better 00z set to come.
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2017112918/graphe3_1000_310.94000244140625_136.4199981689453___.gif

Longer-term not so bad, these are for the borders area.

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I wouldn't buy too much into this. Every other time the metoffice or even the BBC has 'held on' its always backtracked in the end. I remember weekly forecasts being 24 hours behind the latest ECM last year and all of them inevitably turned out to be wrong. Unfortunately when it comes to deep, significant, cold the most pessimistic scenario tends to be the one that actually verifies. 

 

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High pressure now looks set to drift slowly south east into Europe as we head towards the middle part of next week cutting off any potential northerly, at least in the medium term as demonstrated by the UKMO and GFS this morning.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2017113000/UW144-21.GIF?30-06

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Agreement now emerging for the height rise from the South and the jet getting between 'our' heights and the High towards Greenland. Another one in the solar plexus I'm afraid. Red faces and revisions from Exeter later 

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Poor runs so far it has to be said 

 

Be typical of the UK if the last day of Autumn was colder than any day of the coming winter

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Game over for now! The euro slug wins and that as we all know is a persistent bugger😔 back to doing something other than model watching for the next few weeks.

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The past few days have clearly illustrated the uncertainty and finely balanced nature of things for the U.K. I wouldn’t have imagined that this uncertainty has magically been removed overnight!

As for “red faces in Exeter” for forecasts based on evidence? I smell trolling.

After several colder op runs the GFS has gone as one of the milder ensemble runs this morning. If that trend continues with support from the ECM for a few more runs we will have some more clarity.

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Absolutely, they have a cold outlook for next week with heavy wintry showers and various tweets from the usual 'men in the know' supporting this - quite clearly the reverse of this outlook will now be taking place.

 

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Absolute rubbish. The GFS ENS this morning is a complete mix of spaghetti after 6 days out as it has been for several days now. Anything is possible. There are plenty of runs going to -9C and -10C on the 850’s as well as plenty of runs above +5C. The mean is close to average but that is meaningless given the huge spread.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

Im not too sure about that, after looking at the Ens there is quite clearly a lot of uncertainty around Dec 6th, with cold options on offer

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@Shroppyboy if you think it’s clear go and look at the latest ECM lol

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Well looks like we are on the verge of Euro slug territory, another defeat snatched from the jaws of victory.

They have reported what the consensus of the models have shown up until the point of publication..

“Next week starts rather cloudy, but dry with some rain or drizzle in the north and west. Meanwhile, the best of any brightness at first is likely in the southeast. The rain will slowly move southwards with colder, brighter and showery conditions returning across all areas. The colder and brighter conditions are likely to remain through the rest of next week with the chance of some heavy showers, some of which will fall as snow. For the remainder of this period a blocked pattern is likely to persist meaning it will probably stay mainly dry and cold with widespread overnight frosts and a mixture of sunshine and showers. These falling as sleet or snow, chiefly over the hills but also to lower levels.“

I would, every single time, back the Met Office over a troll. The ridiculous nature of your comments is highlighted by the ongoing uncertainty.

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The scatter tells all we need to know and yet despite some recent posts on the ENS, too many folks still get hung up on the op.

I bet we will see a colder evolution at some point today - be it the 06z, 12z or 18z. Once the scatter becomes less evident and we see consistency for a less cold situation, then we have more clarity but not until then.

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Its amazing that you can be so confident of the outlook given the continued spread in the options from the 7th Dec. I’m surprised we don’t see you posting more often, instead of just when a milder outlook might look more likely.

Why is that?

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