Apparently, the instant the op run is one of the milder solutions, all uncertainty vanishes. Yeah right!

BUT as I've said a number of times,  we are not in normal territory this year and the huge scatter in the ensembles show the uncertainty nicely.

I would much rather see what we are seeing this year  than what we were seeing this time in 2015 which was unrelenting very mild zonality.

Totally agree mate , it’s much improved 

Looks like the main change is Wed and Thur with strong support for a milder outcome. A transient northerly flow of sorts still looks a distinct possibility during the second half of next week. It's a bit like driving down a straight and smooth road only to see pot holes appearing at short range. 

A good analogy Brian. 

I do now think we are very likely to get some milder weather next week, I don’t think a straightforward transition to a northerly is very likely at all.

That said, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see more changes in the output, and I would neither be surprised to see more cold weather modelled soon after a short mild spell. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

UKMO has moved away from the northerly now

t144

t168

ensemble means from GFS and ECM haven't supported any significant snow making it to the south for a few days now so the downgrades to something less cold are off no surprise to me at all

As others have said, a lot of options still on the table, but be they mild or cold, I just hope something kicks off as we head into December. 

Exactly. Maybe Ian sees its differently, but this chart doesn't really scream mildness to me:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

Not really- the latter stages of the ECM op don't suggest a Euroslug setting up, to me eyes anyway.

Speaking of Ian Brown

Hmmm, how predictable!

Fair play to GEM which never signed up to a proper cold spell

Once again we see the jet and shortwaves preventing northern blocking. This is climate change in real time and its keeping our winters mild, probably for many decades to come. 

This isnt a million miles from what the GFS has been trying to say these past few days.  at T168, a little bit more of assertiveness from the GH and you have the potential for an epic winter snow storm.  Lots of moisture pumped up hitting Arctic air.

I think that is a discussion best conducted elsewhere, Beast.

And anyway, we had no problems with shortwaves preventing northern blocking in late 2009 and 2010, did we? That's only 7-8 years ago which nullifies your argument somewhat, IMO.

I've had my reservations about next week's cold spell but I don't think it's related to the heights over Europe, SC.  I think it's more a case of the strength and track of the burst of energy that has been modelled to push south.  The evolutions that have delivered an Arctic Plunge have all driven the surge south with such momentum that the high pressure has been forced aside.  The next issue is where the displaced high pressure ends up: some models retrogressed it into mid Atlantic and others just show it slipping south.

There was always going to be a milder interlude into early next week. At the moment I'd say that the odds had lengthened a little on a strong renewed burst of cold but that's all.

As I type this it's snowing outside.... Let's not forget what we have under our noses, which isn't bad for November.   

It's funny how some people never seem to learn. The mantra of cross-model and ensemble support seems to be overlooked. Especially by certain contributors in their rush to predict zonality.

Just over 50% of MOGREPS have a northerly type next Wednesday at 18z. These range in intensity.

My thoughts exactly - it shows that Atlantic low squeezing through the gap and then merging with the Euro trough. The results of which could be a big snowstorm, as shown on the 06Z GFS just rolling out, for instance!

How's this for an anomaly chart...