theweatheroutlook

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Brian Gaze
01 December 2017 18:40:32


 


It's the most common synoptic follow through, heights raise in the Atlantic and a Low transfers East bringing a northerly down but the damage is already done with Low pressure crossing Greenland and the High topples towards the UK. The GFS is blowing up the Low and stalling the pattern for way too long. I'd be very surprised if the ECM didn't show something very similar to the GEM between T120 and T168.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Looks quite similar to GEM at a glance.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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doctormog
01 December 2017 18:45:53
At a glance perhaps Brian but a proper look suggests it’s not really like any of the other runs this evening in terms of specifics? Gone is any suggestion of mild weather around that time point which was evident a day or so ago to be replaced with unsettled but cool or cold conditions.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Chunky Pea
01 December 2017 18:46:28


 


"Live Compare" on Meteociel is useful for pointing out the differences. ECM has a much flatter profile and a positive tilt in western Greenland so will be poorer for blocking. 



Edit - as shown at 168 where the ECM flattens right out much quicker than the UKMO would (probably!)


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Interesting feature that I didn't know about. You are right, ECM opens up the potential for that Canadian trough to break through quicker than the UKMO, which as you say, keeps it blocked out. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
SEMerc
01 December 2017 18:48:00

JFF. The Xcweather forecast for Reading, based on the FFS 12z


http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Reading

David M Porter
01 December 2017 18:49:46


JFF. The Xcweather forecast for Reading, based on the FFS 12z


http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Reading


Originally Posted by: SEMerc 


Don't you mean GFS?

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
moomin75
01 December 2017 18:50:15


I would do very well if that GFS run verified 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

me too

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
David M Porter
01 December 2017 18:53:55

Think that council gritting teams will be rather busy up and down the country were the ECM 12z to verify as shown!

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Bugglesgate
01 December 2017 18:54:02


 


Don't you mean GFS?


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


I don't think it was a typo


 


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Shropshire
01 December 2017 18:55:40

Oh. Fair to say I wasn't expecting that from the ECM 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
doctormog
01 December 2017 19:01:19
There’s is still little agreement re. the specifics at days 6 to 10 but quite a few cold and unsettled options that could be wild, wet and windy or something more exciting from a wintry perspective. I am very cautious about any of the eye candy at present but at least it’s “actually there”, albeit virtually!
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
beanoir
01 December 2017 19:05:59


Think that council gritting teams will be rather busy up and down the country were the ECM 12z to verify as shown!


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


One question I’ve never worked out the answer to, still is when is a model run deemed to have verified? 


 

Langford, Bedfordshire
doctormog
01 December 2017 19:10:14


 


One question I’ve never worked out the answer to, still is when is a model run deemed to have verified? 


 


Originally Posted by: beanoir 


This should help.  https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/download/attachments/24316358/Scores_definitions.pdf?version=2&modificationDate=1478880300914&api=v2 


 


 


 


 



 


 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Polar Low
01 December 2017 19:10:57

Japs look wintry later on


 



http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=180&mode=1&nh=0


moderate snow becoming prolonged

Chunky Pea
01 December 2017 19:12:05

Despite not looking all that much on the WZ charts, the ECM still shows the potential for some fairly nasty conditions (though nowhere near the extent of what the GFS is showing)next Thursday as that trough passes over on the 6 hr frames. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
beanoir
01 December 2017 19:14:17


 


This should help.  https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/download/attachments/24316358/Scores_definitions.pdf?version=2&modificationDate=1478880300914&api=v2 


 


 


 


 



 


 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


....in picture format? tongue-out

Langford, Bedfordshire
doctormog
01 December 2017 19:16:22


 


 


....in picture format? tongue-out


Originally Posted by: beanoir 


I did just Google “model stats” on images, I may be back later 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
polarwind
01 December 2017 19:17:28


 


Had a quick skeg at the 2m temp anomalies for Jan 84 (which seems most cited when there is speak of 'cold zonality') and was expecting to see a colder than normal Arctic. Interestingly, this is not the case, but look at those deviations over almost the entirety of the N. American continent. 


 



Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

This was a time, plus or minus a few years, when the opinion that 'somats up' (with the climate) was made by those involved with weather, after they were confronted with data as depicted in such charts above.

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Dave,Derby
Polar Low
01 December 2017 19:18:54

and cold with s/waves in the mix



 


only want one of these at the right time


 



 



Despite not looking all that much on the WZ charts, the ECM still shows the potential for some fairly nasty conditions (though nowhere near the extent of what the GFS is showing)next Thursday as that trough passes over on the 6 hr frames. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Arcus
01 December 2017 19:20:36


 


One question I’ve never worked out the answer to, still is when is a model run deemed to have verified? 


 


Originally Posted by: beanoir 


Put simply, any model forecast for a particular date and time can be compared what actually exists when that date and time comes around (essentially the +00h chart at the start of a model run is the analysis chart). Differences can then be assimilated into a verification rating for that model's run for that date and time.


 

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
GlenH
01 December 2017 19:24:42

 


This should help.  https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/download/attachments/24316358/Scores_definitions.pdf?version=2&modificationDate=1478880300914&api=v2 


 



Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


tongue-out


 


Basically the sum of the root mean squared differences across the variables and grid points. 


I’m not sure what other reasonable way of doing would be possible to be honest. 


 


To to address the original question though, no run would be ever considered ‘verified’. Verification is simply a continuously calculated score from the above formulae. You can do it at whatever range you wish and track it over time (people post these tracking graphs occasionally). 

beanoir
01 December 2017 19:35:47


 


Put simply, any model forecast for a particular date and time can be compared what actually exists when that date and time comes around (essentially the +00h chart at the start of a model run is the analysis chart). Differences can then be assimilated into a verification rating for that model's run for that date and time.


 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


You’re a gent, thanks Ben! 

Langford, Bedfordshire
Rob K
01 December 2017 19:41:17
So ECM doesn't look as amplified on the first couple of troughs but still builds heights in Greenland in the end. We seem to stay in the cold side almost throughout. It's hard to know quite what would be going on between frames but could be increasingly wintry.

I'll still take the GFS solution though 🙂
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Polar Low
01 December 2017 19:49:20

Netweather also have a good one Rob you can compare 0-12z runs together I hope Brian gets something like that takes a while to update


 https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/model-comparison


 


 



 


"Live Compare" on Meteociel is useful for pointing out the differences. ECM has a much flatter profile and a positive tilt in western Greenland so will be poorer for blocking. 



Edit - as shown at 168 where the ECM flattens right out much quicker than the UKMO would (probably!)


Originally Posted by: Rob K 

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