Yes I'm really surprised at some of the stuff I'm reading this morning, both ECM and GEM show what is by far the most likely outcome after the initial northerly. I don't know if people are getting excited by the steep thermal gradient and the prospect of back edge snow, but anybody who has been watching the charts for any length of time should be able to see where this is heading, a window of opportunity for snow showers in the usual places before milder weather returns from the NW next Saturday - as per the METO update. 

Are we looking at easterlies, prolonged cold or battleground events ? No, to be honest not much really to see here. 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Again my advice would be to manage expectations. It’s likely to be cold and possibly stormy later next week but with the UKM text forecast tempering the impact of the forecast North Sea low, and the track and intensity still not in any way determined, I’m reluctant to forecast any detail yet - especially with respect location and amount of snowfall.
It could come to nothing, or it could be an historic event - it’s too early to call IMO.
It is fun to watch unfold though I’ll admit that 😉

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Just out of interest when did you start rating the ECM over the GFS? I remember when you were insistent that the Euros “always” followed the GFS. You used to make this point over and over again. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

I'm not saying one is better than the other here, I have in the past commented that I feel the GFS has handled the corridor of death better than the ECM/UKMO in the past.

Here, this is fairly a simple evolution that anyone who has basic synoptic understanding can grasp, allied to the fact that the worst outcome displayed by the models for the UK is nearly always the one that verifies. 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Yes I'm really surprised at some of the stuff I'm reading this morning, both ECM and GEM show what is by far the most likely outcome after the initial northerly. I don't know if people are getting excited by the steep thermal gradient and the prospect of back edge snow, but anybody who has been watching the charts for any length of time should be able to see where this is heading, a window of opportunity for snow showers in the usual places before milder weather returns from the NW next Saturday - as per the METO update. 

Are we looking at easterlies, prolonged cold or battleground events ? No, to be honest not much really to see here. 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

I'm not saying one is better than the other here, I have in the past commented that I feel the GFS has handled the corridor of death better than the ECM/UKMO in the past.

Here, this is fairly a simple evolution that anyone who has basic synoptic understanding can grasp, allied to the fact that the worst outcome displayed by the models for the UK is nearly always the one that verifies. 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

How did he do that ? I pointed out that the METO update for cold 'early next week' was erroneous given the NWP on the Wednesday just gone. He waffled a bit about broadscale output then admitted he had nothing to do with the Exeter update. 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

So, let’s get this straight before the 06z GFS emerges...

If the GFS run once again shows more extreme or prolonged cold it should be discounted but it if it is milder than the ECM 00z it I see the most likely outcome to verify?

In short, pick the milder/est solution and then try to discredit the other opinions with spurious reasons. That would be an agenda not model output analysis. Just my opinion of course and not suggesting that anyone is likely to do something as silly as that for wind up reasons.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Haven't looked at GFS, but the ECM would have some big snow potential for you in NE Scotland.

Bog standard stuff for here though. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

The ECM doesn't look like a classic "toppler" to me. We never end up on the mild side of the jet and the pattern remains amplified albeit less so than on some of the other models.

Looking through the rest of the minor models as well it seems to be ECM that is out on a limb at the moment.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

No, you’re right CP but others’ mind games  are tedious (not from you as we know your preferences, and your analysis is accurate and consistent from those preferences )

The 06z GFS is coming out currently and is out to 123hr as I write this. At a glance it looks largely unchanged. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_123_1.png 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

6z @ 144 shows a nice kink in the isobars running down the U.K. Looks s decent start to the run 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Unfortunately at 144h the LP is further NE than the 0h which could mean the northerly topples more quickly.be interesting to see the Ens for 144h , the 0h  ENS had the LP much closer  to the UK

Originally Posted by: roger63 

Unfortunately at 144h the LP is further NE than the 0h which could mean the northerly topples more quickly.be interesting to see the Ens for 144h , the 0h  ENS had the LP much closer  to the UK

Originally Posted by: roger63 

Unfortunately at 144h the LP is further NE than the 0h which could mean the northerly topples more quickly.be interesting to see the Ens for 144h , the 0h  ENS had the LP much closer  to the UK

Originally Posted by: roger63 

06z is a belter.

It won’t be dry either, especially in western areas. Fantastic - some really cold air too. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_153_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_153_2.png

Snow in Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester if this one verifies. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs