theweatheroutlook

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Gooner
03 December 2017 10:07:54

GFS 6z still good and not following UKMO @144

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Ally Pally Snowman
03 December 2017 10:14:58


GFS 6z still good and not following UKMO @144


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


Yes very good so far looks unstable northerly flow so you'd hope for plenty of snow showers not just for the usual suspects. By 162 looks like its trying to set up more of a North easterly perhaps


 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Shropshire
03 December 2017 10:15:12

Yes a cracking 06z coming out. With regards to the other output this morning, to my eyes that UKMO T168 doesn't really look much different to the really poor GEM and we don't want that..


That aside the Euro trough anomaly looks strong but we are going to need an awful lot of luck for parts of the UK to stay on the cold side of the PFJ with that Azores High close and energy spilling off the Seaboard.


 

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Gandalf The White
03 December 2017 10:16:07


GFS 6z still good and not following UKMO @144


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Different by T+150 with a high pressure cell between Iceland and Greenland and no slider. Looks like a more stable pattern but it may still find a way of getting the block to weaken.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gooner
03 December 2017 10:17:08


 


 


Yes very good so far looks unstable northerly flow so you'd hope for plenty of snow showers not just for the usual suspects. By 162 looks like its trying to set up more of a North easterly perhaps


 


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


A better run for sure ....doesn’t look any room for NW sliders 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Ally Pally Snowman
03 December 2017 10:25:29


 


A better run for sure ....doesn’t look any room for NW sliders 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


Yes prefer the slider option tbh.  Still a good cold run. Could be setting up a slider 200h if we're lucky.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
03 December 2017 10:29:57


 


 


Yes prefer the slider option tbh.  Still a good cold run. Could be setting up a slider 200h if we're lucky.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Could well do, might even drag us into an Easterly 


 


I should we are DEEP into FI after 144 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Ally Pally Snowman
03 December 2017 10:30:00

No sliders this time pretty flat by 216. The variety beyond 144 in the models at the moment is huge. 


 


Edit, it is trying to far north though could be interesting day 10 +

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Maunder Minimum
03 December 2017 10:30:47

Well I am not going to complain, when we see charts like this at t+120:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&time=120&run=6&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3



Naturally, it would be great to see widespread snow and blizzards, but given our normal winter fare, seeing -10 850s across Scotland and a Greenie HP within the reliable is as much as we can ask for.


P.S. Little point looking beyond t+144 at the moment.

New world order coming.
Ally Pally Snowman
03 December 2017 10:40:21


No sliders this time pretty flat by 216. The variety beyond 144 in the models at the moment is huge. 


 


Edit, it is trying to far north though could be interesting day 10 +


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


Yep up she goes again day 11 . Setting up yet another Northerly 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
03 December 2017 10:42:45

Cracking GFS 06z run if you want cold:



PS: Someone asked about GEFS ensemble data on TWO and where to view it. The best place is:


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx


 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
tallyho_83
03 December 2017 10:47:32

Friday looks snowy. For some but more int he way of snow showers.



 

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gooner
03 December 2017 10:48:28

Well it got us close to an Easterly....decent run really 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Ally Pally Snowman
03 December 2017 10:48:42

Very cold 300+ Dreamland scenario for the run up to Christmas. 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
tallyho_83
03 December 2017 10:50:40


Cracking GFS 06z run if you want cold:



PS: Someone asked about GEFS ensemble data on TWO and where to view it. The best place is:


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Indeed and quite a lot of blocking over the Arctic - which has split the polar vortex: - a long way off but still./


 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Ally Pally Snowman
03 December 2017 10:52:46


 


 


Indeed and quite a lot of blocking over the Arctic - which has split the polar vortex: - a long way off but still./


 



Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


Stunning NH view Tally!  Locked in cold 1963 style


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
tallyho_83
03 December 2017 10:53:24


Friday looks snowy. For some but more int he way of snow showers.



 


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Retron
03 December 2017 10:54:40

The return of the mid winter easterly
Originally Posted by: ballamar 

">https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=384&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na-region&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM


That's a far cry from a midwinter easterly of yore. On a scale of 0 to 10, that'd rate about a 0.2.


Still, it's nice to see the GFS 6z maintains a distincting unusual synoptic setup as we progress through December, even if decently cold 850s are absent. And by that, I mean the -10s that would gaurantee snow rather than rain, along with heavy convective showers to lay down a snowcover.


Again, further north and/or halfway up a mountain you could get away with less.


 

Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
03 December 2017 10:55:16

Ifr the 6z run verified (and it's almost certain not to) a colder than average winter would be the hot favourite. I would suggest a period of several weeks with temperatures predominantly below average would follow. What happened mid Jan onwards probably wouldn't be enough to fully offset the cold start.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Retron
03 December 2017 11:05:50
The 0z EPS maintains a cold - but not exceptionally so - picture.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif 

Highs of 3C or so look to be the form horse in the longer term, together with frosts. That to me suggests a northerly or NW'ly flow is the preferred option.
Leysdown, north Kent
Karl Guille
03 December 2017 11:10:56
Fascinating GFS 06z with cool or cold conditions pretty much all the way. Just when you think the Atlantic is pushing for a return up pops another northerly leading to a pre-Christmas easterly! May well amount to nothing IMBY but this must surely be the best pre-Christmas model watching in my 9 years on Two!
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Gooner
03 December 2017 11:36:09

Worth the comment GFS control ends very interestingly .


 


Yes I know FI but blocking to the East shouldn’t be ignored 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Joe Bloggs
03 December 2017 11:46:51

The 0z EPS maintains a cold - but not exceptionally so - picture.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Highs of 3C or so look to be the form horse in the longer term, together with frosts. That to me suggests a northerly or NW'ly flow is the preferred option.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Considering they’re for London I’d say they are pretty decent ENS there Darren. Colder than yesterday I think? 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
pdiddy
03 December 2017 11:47:23


Worth the comment GFS control ends very interestingly .


 


Yes I know FI but blocking to the East shouldn’t be ignored 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


It's a good point - I've been watching for the Scandi high forming and there have been hints in previous runs.  Chance of an easterly cannot be ruled out.

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